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Challenges to Animal Health in the 21st Century

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Title: Challenges to Animal Health in the 21st Century


1
Challenges to Animal Health in the 21st Century
  • National Animal Health Program Planning
    Workshop Kansas City, Missouri
  • September 20, 2005
  • Lonnie J. King Dean, College of Veterinary
    Medicine Michigan State University
  • Director, Office of Strategy and
    Innovation Centers for Disease Control and
    Prevention

2
  • The purpose of all public organizations is to
    create public value. Defining public value is a
    complex issue that involves multiple players with
    different views and perspectives.

3
Anna Karenina Principle
  • Happy families are all alike every unhappy
    family is unhappy in its own way.
  • - Leon Tolstoy
  • To be happy, families must solve a large number
    of complex problems. The same principle applies
    to government agencies.

4
Mission
Public Value
Capacity
Authorization
5
  • The principal challenge for the 21st century is
    not just problem solving, but now managing
    dilemmas. All the problems are interconnected,
    which creates the dilemma that is further
    complicated by conflicting outside pressures.

6
Animal Health at the Crossroads
  • Animals are a huge national asset
  • Convergence of human and animal health
  • Globalization
  • Restructuring and consolidation
  • Socio-economic and community issues
  • Changing threats and opportunities

7
Animal Health at the Crossroads (continued)
  • Scope, scale and implications are unprecedented
  • Environment and ecosystems
  • Research needs to be commensurate with needs
  • Consumerism and social dimensions of agriculture
    production
  • National education and preparedness strategies

8
  • Only a fool would make predictions especially
    about the future.
  • ? Samuel Goldwyn

9
Theory of Business Drucker
  • Assumptions (1) Environment
  • (2) Mission
  • (3) Capacity

10
Veterinary Medicines Opportunity Horizon At the
Intersections of Differences Lies the
Opportunity for Innovation
Public Health
Ecosystems
Animal Health
Food Systems
11
Not Meeting Challenges and Opportunities
  • Public health
  • Biomedical research
  • Global food and fiber system
  • Ecosystem management
  • Food safety
  • Trade enhancement

12
The most serious challenge to veterinary medicine
is to reestablish its social responsibility.
13
  • Only the Paranoid Survive
  • By Any Grove, CEO Intel

14
Strategic Inflection Point
  • There are crisis points that challenge the
    fundamentals of every organization and represent
    a point where opportunities are exploited or will
    signal the beginning of the end.
  • Only the Paranoid Survive Andy Grove

15
Strategic Inflection Points for Animal Agriculture
  • Interdependency
  • Globalization
  • Convergence of human and animal health
  • Strategic partnerships
  • Science and technology
  • Social, economic and human dimensions
  • Restructuring of agriculture
  • Disruptive and asymmetrical influences

16
Interdependence Opportunities
  • Public engagement
  • Interdisciplinary research teams
  • Appreciation of animal agriculture national
    asset
  • Research interoperability and data sharing
  • Meta-leadership

17
Interdependence Threats
  • Isolationism and disconnected to societal needs
  • Loss of control over destiny
  • Loss of relevance
  • Shift of decision-making and influence

18
Interdependence
  • Our greatest challenge is our ability to
    reconcile our strong independence and individual
    freedoms with the reality of interdependence.

19
(No Transcript)
20
Globalization Opportunities
  • Unprecedented market share
  • Livestock 2020 Global protein demand
  • Global research architecture
  • Risk-based agenda
  • Glocalization

21
Market Share vs. Opportunity Share
  • ? 96 percent of all consumers outside U.S.
  • ? 60 percent increase for meat for developing
    countries
  • ? 8 billion people by 2020
  • ? Shift of 1 to 2 billion people to middle class
  • ? Improved transportation systems

22
Livestock Revolution of 2020
  • Population growth
  • Creation of wealth and larger middle class
  • Unprecedented demand for animal products
  • Westernization of diets
  • Role of developing vs. developed counties
  • The next significant SIP?

23
Globalization Threats
  • 9/11 vs. 11/9 The World is Flat
  • Foreign Animal Diseases (FAD), Bio- or
    Agroterrorism events
  • Sanitary-Phytosanitary (SPS) and trade problems
  • Biodistress accelerates
  • Food security and safety
  • Geopolitical forces dominate animal agriculture
  • Climate change produces new threats

24
Convergence of Human and Animal Health
Opportunities
  • Animal agriculture as public health advocates
  • Agriceutical industry
  • Food and Health
  • Redefining food as health promotants
  • Understanding of zoonoses and disease emergence
  • Animal agriculture integral to community health
  • One Medicine Concept is reaffirmed

25
The Changing Mind Set of Food-Animal Agriculture
  • Rearing livestock and poultry
  • Producing products and commodities
  • Proactive Advocates
    of Public Health

26
The New Agriculture
Health
Food
Medicine
Agriceutical System
Energy
Pharmaceuticals
Fiber
27
Future of Food
  • Shift
  • From a necessary staple and sustenance
  • To Products promoting and enhancing health,
    quality of life and productivity

28
Examination of our contemporary challenges
  • Confluence of Human and Animal Health
  • 3 epidemiologic eras
  • EID, zoonoses, bioterrorism, agroterrorism,
    antimicrobial resistance
  • 75 of EID are zoonotic
  • 80 of select agents are zoonotic
  • Review of CDCs most significant global epidemics
  • Chronic disease with infectious etiologies
  • New challenges are unprecedented in public health

29
The Perfect Storm ? Sebastian Junger
  • an ocean tempest due to a rare combination of
    factors and circumstances that might occur every
    century

30
The Microbial Perfect Storm
  • Due to special combinations and circumstances
  • Relatively common occurrence
  • Doesnt dissipate, but may perpetuate or
    accelerate
  • Convergence model

31
(No Transcript)
32
WHO Map on World Emerging Diseases
33
CDCs Most Significant Global Epidemics Over the
Last Decade
  • 1993 Hanta virus
  • 1994 Plague (India)
  • Ebola virus (Zaire)
  • 1996 New Variant of CJD (UK)
  • H5N1 influenza (Hong Kong)
  • 1998 Nipah virus (Malaysia)
  • 1999 West Nile
  • 2000 Rift Valley Fever
  • 2001 Anthrax
  • 2002 Norwalk-like viruses
  • 2003 - SARS

34
One World ? One Health ? One Medicine
35
Convergence of Human and Animal Health Threats
  • Public health controls agenda
  • Global epidemic or pandemics
  • Acceleration of emerging zoonoses
  • Transboundary diseases continue unabated
  • Antimicrobial resistant pathogens increase
  • Factors of emergence expand

36
Strategic Partnerships Opportunities
  • Benefits of public private partnering
  • Identification and resolution of complex problems
  • Leverage private research findings
  • Med - Vet - Net relationships

37
Strategic Partnerships Threats
  • Fragmentation
  • Key contemporary problems are unresolved
  • Lack of perspective and relevance

38
  • The scale and complexity of animal and human
    medical problems demand that scientists move
    beyond the confines of their own disciplines and
    explore new organizational models for team
    science.

39
  • The problem with the future is not that it is
    unknowable. The problem with the future is that
    it is different. If you are not able to think
    differently, the future will always arrive as a
    surprise.

40
Science and Technology Opportunities
  • Breakthroughs lead to new discovery,
    knowledge and application
  • Large-scale science projects
  • Ecology of health
  • Informatics
  • Improved disease detection, diagnosis,
    surveillance and recovery
  • Discovery of what we know we dont know
  • Unprecedented protection, prevention and
    productivity
  • Context awareness, animal ID and pervasive
    computing

41
New Pathways to Discover
  • Bioinformatics
  • Computational biology
  • Nano Medicine
  • Genomics

42
Focal point
Aware Contexts the environment wakes up
43
Context-aware environments
  • Semantic Processing. Emergent processes for
    constructing meaning from data and metadata that
    will allow connected, sensing objects to respond
    to their environment intelligently.
  • Material Sensing. Sensors and actuators in all
    kinds of materials that will mimic the ability to
    see, hear, smell, touch and taste the world and
    record and respond to these sensations.

Wireless Connectivity. From cell phones and
Wi-Fi/WIMAX devices to Bluetooth, RFID tags, and
self-configuring sensor networks, a host of
technologies will link people, places and
objects, either close up or at a distance.
44
  • The emergence of new insights by re-examining and
    re-connecting disparate pieces of data, studies
    and networks.

45
Land Use Waste Management Environmental
Quality Ecosystem Health
CEID Bio Terrorism Diagnostic Surveillance Zoonose
s
Food Security Food Safety Food Health
Human Animal Bond Comparative Medicine Program
Population Medicine Conservation
Medicine Wildlife Management
Diseases Biodiversity Agro Terrorism
Public Health
Ecosystems
Environmental Health Water quality Renewable
food-animal systems
Animal Health
Food
Sustainable food-animal systems Conservation Anima
l food contaminates GMOs
Chronic disease Nutrition Obesity Integrative
Toxicology Factors of Disease Emergence Food as
Health Promotants Food as Medicine
Bio Engineered Food Antimicrobial
Resistance Global Food Production Systems Animal
Welfare and Well-being
46
Science and Technology Threats
  • Lack of public trust over biotechnology
  • Public policy and politics become anti-science
  • Precautionary principle for trade decisions
  • Risk communication incompetency
  • Lack of resources and investment to use new
    science

47
Socio-Economic and Human Dimensions
Opportunities
  • Environmental and land use improvements
  • Breakthroughs in animal welfare, conservation and
    biodiversity
  • Sustainable and profitable production systems
  • Rebuilding the public trust
  • Enhancement of agricultural communities
  • Animal agriculture regains a social conscience

48
Winds of Change
  • ? Large production systems
  • ? Political clout
  • ? Land use
  • ? Standards for animal well-being
  • ? Sustainable production
  • ? Global marketplace
  • ? Consumerism
  • ? Value added products
  • ? Public relations

49
(No Transcript)
50
Social Acceptability of Food
  • ? Environment
  • ? Conservation
  • ? Animal well-being and welfare
  • ? Impact on small producers and communities

51
Ecosystem
52
Socio-Economics and Human Dimensions Threats
  • Agriculture is viewed as part of the problem and
    not part of the solution
  • Retailers, consumers and processors dictate
    animal production practices
  • Major increases in global protein production
    shift overseas
  • Regulatory environment not conducive for
    expansion of U.S. production

53
  • Key challenges reinventing itself and
    reinventing its industry.
  • An organization that cant re-imagine its deepest
    sense of what it is, what it does, and how it
    competes and operates will soon be rendered
    obsolete.

54
  • There is an enormous danger in viewing what is
    changing through the lens of what already is.

55
Disruptive and Asymmetrical Events Opportunities
  • Positioning animal agricultural research
  • Thriving in VUCA environment
  • Seeing Whats Next driving public innovation
  • Scenario planning and plausible futures
  • Building new capacity and resources

56
Risk
57
If a forest is dense dry enough…
  • Worldwide, 25 people/second cross national
    borders
  • Increasingly densely connected network
  • Lessons from monocultures

58
Health is a filter for purchasing decisions
( of respondents that believe health benefits
are somewhat or very important when making
purchases in …)   Food 92 Personal cleaning
products 82 Home care products 74 Health and
beauty aids 72 Home care appliances 64 Clothing
or shoes 62 Home materials 62 Automobiles
55 Entertainment 48 Personal
electronics 44 Travel or vacation packages
42 Things for your yard or outdoor
space 41 For your home office 40    
Source Institute for the Future, Health and
Nutrition Online Survey, 2003.
59
Bioterrorism Biodefense Agroterrorism
60
H5N1 in Southeast Asia
  • 10 countries involved
  • 5 countries with H5N1 human cases
  • Complex dynamics industrial commercial (20)
    small commercial (supply live-bird markets
    10) backyard flocks, migrating waterfowl, duck
    production (commercial, local and associated with
    rice production), hogs interspersed among these
    populations
  • Uneven practices vaccination, surveillance,
    laboratory capability, disease reporting,
    anti-virals, regulations, biosecurity, local
    markets and cooperation with public health

61
Disruptive and Asymmetrical Events Threats
  • Avian influenza pandemic
  • Bio- or agroterrorism occurrence
  • Progressive vulnerability
  • Permanent market changes
  • Lack of preparedness and planning
  • No built-in flexibility and adaptiveness
  • Ineffective biosecurity programs

62
  • Non-linear innovation requires an ongoing action
    to escape the limitations of precedent and
    imagine entirely novel solutions to customer
    (public) needs.

63
Restructuring Animal Agriculture Opportunities
  • Optimizing production vs. maximizing
  • Reducing disease susceptibility
  • Creating new role and niche for small farmers and
    communities
  • Animal well-being improvement within profitable
    production systems

64
Eradication
65
We must stop trying to figure what to do by
looking at what we have always done and focus on
what is truly needed and possible.
66
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Translocation
Encroachment Introduction Spill over Spill
back
Human encroachment Ex situ contact Ecological
manipulation
Wildlife EID
Domestic Animal EID
Human EID
Global travel Urbanization Biomedical manipulation
Agricultural Intensification
Technology and Industry
Dasazak P. et.al. Science 2000 287443
67
Restructuring Animal Agriculture Threats
  • Genetic and geographic species vulnerability
  • Lack of sustainability of U.S. production
  • Environment degradation
  • Endemic, exotic and emerging diseases expand
  • Not meeting changing needs of differentiated
    producers

68
Rapidly Increasing Human Population
  • 6.1 Billion people in 2000
  • 9.4 to 11.2 Billion in 2050

69
Lessons Learned for Agriculture
  • Not necessarily in charge of your own destiny
  • Its both local and global glocalization
  • Unprecedented external forces
  • Agriculturalists as advocates for public health
  • Research supports program but can lead change
  • Public Private Partnerships are critical
  • 21st century competency is collaboration
  • People are progressively taking charge of their
    health and well-being
  • Definitions of public health and animal health
    are similar
  • Nature of risks is changing
  • Positioning organizations vs. strict pathways

70
  • Organizations fail to create the future not
    because they fail to predict it, but because they
    fail to imagine it.

71
  • The goal is not to speculate on what might
    happen, but to imagine what you can actually make
    happen.
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