Incorporating Long-Term Climate Variability in Water Resource Planning

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Incorporating Long-Term Climate Variability in
Water Resource Planning

• Mark Shafer
• Oklahoma Climatological Survey

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Types of Information Use(from Weiss 1979)

• Intellectual Enterprise
• Knowledge-Driven
• Problem-Oriented
• Enlightenment
• Political
• Tactical

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Intellectual Enterprise

• Analysis undertaken to improve intellectual
  understanding of the process not necessarily
  oriented toward application
• The hallmark of many scientific studies aimed
  at understanding a complex physical system and
  sharing results among the scientific community
• Advances state of knowledge but does not
  necessarily meet decision-makers needs

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Knowledge-Driven

• Background information relating to a problem
  (rather than specific recommendations)
• May be used to educate individuals about some
  aspect of a problem or as a basis to persuade
  others that a problem even exists

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Problem-Oriented

• Analysis undertaken to address a specific need
• Instrumental use a one-on-one relationship
  between an analysis and policy outcomes
• Decision-makers define need study addresses need
  and offers recommendations
• Example NAS review of IPCC reports at request of
  White House

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Enlightenment

• Analysis creates inventories of information
  that alter subsequent debate, but does not have
  an immediate impact
• Series of findings gradually alter the
  environment in which discussion takes place
• Example global climate change went from cooling
  (1970s) to warming (1990s)

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Political / Tactical

• Political An analysis is used to justify a
  previously-made decision report offers
  legitimacy but does not affect decisions
• Tactical An analysis is commissioned in order to
  delay a decision report may never be read

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Standards of Utilization(from Knott and
Wildavsky 1980)

• Reception decision-maker received a report
• Assumes it is the analysts duty only to produce
  the information
• Cognition decision-maker received and read the
  report
• Reference decision-maker changed her perspective
  as a result of the report

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Standards of Utilization(from Knott and
Wildavsky 1980)

• Effort decision-maker used the report to
  persuade others
• Adoption one or more of the reports
  recommendations adopted by a council or governing
  body
• Implementation recommendations are incorporated
  into agency operations
• Impact report changed some aspect of the problem
  which it sought to address

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Bottom Line on Utilization

• Scientists cannot always let the results speak
  for themselves
• Results must be framed in the context in which
  decision-makers operate
• Findings must address problems facing one or more
  decision-makers
• Findings must be framed in context of other
  information
• Report must make sense to the decision-maker

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Scientists and Decision-Makers

• The Two Cultures
• A vast chasm across which communication has
  ceased to exist
• Disparate perspectives leading to
  misunderstanding, incomprehension, and distorted
  images
• Cultural differences extend more broadly to
  academic community
• Implications difficulties between researchers
  and practitioners, leading to dis-engagement from
  politics

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The Policy Environment

• Problem-oriented, contextual, multidisciplinary,
  normative
• Factors other than information influence
  decisions
• Dissemination source
• Content (message)
• Dissemination medium
• Characteristics of end-user

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Decision-Making Processes

• Rational model collect evidence, evaluate
• Satisficing first option that works
• Incremental adjustment tinkering
• Borrowing alternatives diffusion
• Institutional structures define credible
  sources, provide resources, common knowledge base

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Bridging the BarrierFactors that encourage
utilization

1. Establish organizations credibility
2. Promote findings, especially examples where
   information is being used by others
3. Identify key issues defined by decision-makers
   (problem-oriented studies)
4. Frame findings to match alternatives
5. Format message to match decision-making styles
   (perspectives, backgrounds, needs)

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Bridging the BarrierFactors that encourage
utilization

1. Develop personal relationships with intended
   recipients (become key resource, re-interpret
   information as context changes
2. Monitor implementation are policies actually
   being implemented?
3. Advertise issue and policies to the affected
   communities / end-users
4. Dont get frustrated Study is only one element
   of larger decision-making arena

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