The Climate Information

1
The Climate Information Prediction Services
(CLIPS) Project (of WMO) The Tool Box concept
A. MokssitDirector Met Service MoroccoChair
of OPAG3 (CLIPS)IPCC WG1 vice chair
2
Outline

• Introduction-Generalities-Examples of succes
  stories
• GFCS Objectives
• CLIPS project the status
• Moroccan experience with CLIPS
• From CLIPS to GFCS CLIPS ToolBox
• Conclusion

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Some succes stories

• Dam managmnt
• Forest plainting
• Agricultural campagne
• Extreme event
• Flood (Ourika 95300 deaths, Ourika 2OO7 1
  deaths but same infrastructure damage
• Build user confidence

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Climate Services

• The term climate services refers to the
  delivery of climate information and predictions
  from the scientific sources to end-users
• A service is a service only when it is used our
  goal is to make people use climate services in
  real-world context
• Climate information is just one of the elements
  in the decision making matrix
• Databases of information gathered over many
  years NMHSs have great potential to exploit
  these resources to provide effective climate
  services
• Predictions of climate variability over the next
  season (or seasonal to interannual forecasts) are
  of immediate relevance of the ability of users to
  act on the basis of climate information

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Climate Prediction Framework
Climate Change.
Centuries
Scenarios
Decades
Anthropogenic Forcing
Climate Variability
Years
Outlook Prediction
Seasons
Guidance
Months
Boundary Conditions
Threats Assessments
2 Weeks
Weather
1 Week
Forecasts
Initial Conditions
Days
Watches
Hours
Warnings Alert Coordination
Adapted from NOAA
Minutes
Energy
Health
State/Local Planning
Recreation
Commerce
Space Applications
Ecosystem
Hydropower
Protection of Life Property
Environment
Fire Weather
Water Management
Agriculture
Water Resource Planning
Transportation
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• Global Framework Climate Services Objective
• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
  its partner organizations co-sponsoring WCC-3
  propose the establishment of a new Global
  Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to
• enable climate adaptation and climate risk
  management through the incorporation of
  science-based climate information and prediction
  into policy and practice at all levels.
• GFCS will have four major components
• Observation and Monitoring
• Research and Modeling
• a Climate Services Information System and
• a Climate Services Application Programme.

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CLIPS project the status
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• Since 1999
•  Congress-XIII (1999) agreed to the following
  four slightly refined objectives for the
  continuing implementation of the CLIPS project,
  which are still valid
• (a) To demonstrate the value and eventual
  socio-economic benefits of climate information
  and prediction services
• (b) To provide an international framework to
  enhance and promote climate information and
  prediction, including the establishment of
  criteria to measure forecast quality and to
  permit model intercomparison
• (c) To encourage the development of operational
  climate prediction
• (d) To facilitate the definition, the
  development and the strengthening of a global
  network of regional/national climate centres

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CLIPS (1/2)

• The CLIPS project builds on
• The past decades of successful atmospheric and
  oceanographic research (e.g., Climate/ENSO
  predictability Coupled atmosphere-ocean
  modelling, )
• Improved climate monitoring (e.g., TAO buoys) and
  data management capabilities
• A developing capability to predict climate on
  monthly, seasonal and interannual time scales,
  and regional space scales
• Effective networking of climate providers as well
  as users, and the development of consensus
  approach to climate outlooks (RCOFs, El Niño/La
  Niña update)

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CLIPS (2/2)

• Mechanisms to provide climate services involving
  global (GPCs Global Producing Centres) and
  regional climate centres (e.g., DMCs, ACMAD,
  CIIFEN, RCCs), as well as the NMHSs
• Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
• Training of experts from NMHSs (CLIPS National
  Focal Points) and end-users (RCOFs, CLIPS
  Curriculum).

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CLIPS Infrastructure and Forecasting

• Access to Global Producing Centres
• Regional Climate Centres
• Examination of forecast presentation methods
• Best practices
• Downscaling and Regional Climate Models
• Development of Regional Climate Outlook Forums
• Joint activities with research programmes such as
  WCRP to bring in state-of-art science into
  climate services.

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CLIPSApplications

• Coordination of demonstration and pilot projects
• Involvement of Focal Points in demonstration and
  pilot projects
• Partnership with application sectors at national,
  regional and global levels
• Examination of improved project design
• Examination of impacts of climate services on
  applications
• Examination of data requirements.

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Capacity Building

• Establish and network CLIPS Focal Points
• A global network of climate scientists/service
  providers specially trained in climate science,
  statistical modelling and prediction,
  applications and project management.
• These CLIPS Focal Points ensure national and
  regional coordination of climate information and
  prediction products.
• Reporting of CLIPS activities by CLIPS Focal
  Points, and sharing the experiences through WMO.
• Development of CLIPS Training Curriculum
• Regional/sub-regional CLIPS Training Workshops
• User-awareness development through workshops,
  projects and Climate Outlook Forums

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• The CLIPS Curriculum is structured into 5 groups,
  which, all in all, brings together more than 70
  individual modules/presentations as of 2009
•  
• Background and Science
• Climate and Climatology
• Forecast, Models and Verfications
• Tools
• Applications
•  
• (cf. http//www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips
  /modules/clips_modules.html)
•  
• Short evaluation The CLIPS Curriculum evolution
  experienced an enthusiastic start. Within a
  relatively short period during 1999 to 2001, many
  high-quality modules were provided by well-known
  specialists. It turned out, however, that further
  expanding and updating the modules and developing
  them into standard training modules and courses
  have been a challenge. Currently, conceptual
  considerations are under way to update the
  Curriculum considering support to climate change
  adaptation and climate risk management as
  priorities and to ensure its sustainability.

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Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

• A component of CLIPS
• First established in 1996 Meeting in Victoria
  Falls, Zimbabwe.
• Regional mechanism for the formulation and
  dissemination of climate forecasts and outlooks
• Bring together providers of and users of SIPs.
• RCOFs, initiated just prior to the major
  19971998 El Niño event, constitute an important
  vehicle in developing regions for providing
  advance information on the likely climate
  features of the upcoming season, and for
  developing a consensus product from amongst the
  multiple available individual predictions.
• RCOFs stimulate the development of climate
  capacity in the NMHSs of the area, and do much to
  generate decisions and activities that mitigate
  adverse impacts of climate and help communities
  adapt to climate variability.

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CLIPS - RCOFs

• Regular Forums in some regions where NMHSs meet
  to develop regional consensus on SIPs.
• Several forums held throughout the world, notably
  in Africa, South America, Central America,
  Pacific Islands and Asia.

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Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum
(GHACOF)

GHACOF covers the countries Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. GHACOF is being coordinated by the IGAD (Inter-Governmental Authority on Development) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya. The latest GHACOF statement as well as previous statements are available at GHACOF Statements
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Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum
(SARCOF)

• SARCOF is a regional climate outlook prediction
  and application process adopted by the fourteen
  countries comprising the Southern African
  Development Community (SADC) Member States
  Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo,
  Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia,
  Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania,
  Zambia and Zimbabwe in conjunction with other
  partners. SARCOF is coordinated by the SADC
  Drought Monitoring Centre (SADC-DMC), Gaborone,
  Botswana. The latest SARCOF statement as well as
  previous statements are available atSARCOF
  Statements

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RCOF for West Africa (PRESAO PRÉvisions
Saisonnières en Afrique de l'Ouest)

• PRESAO, a Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)
  activity dedicated to West Africa, is coordinated
  by the African Centre of Meteorological
  Application for Development (ACMAD), Niamey,
  Niger. The latest PRESAO statement as well as
  previous statements and other related climate
  outlook products are available at PRESAO
  statements

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FOCRAII Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring,
Assessment and Prediction for Regional
Association II (Asia)

• FOCRAII covers all the countries in Asia, most of
  them part of the WMO Regional Association II.
  Beijing Climate Center (BCC) of China
  Meteorological Administration (CMA) has been
  coordinating FOCRAII activities. The latest
  seasonal outlook produced by FOCRAII and other
  related information is available at
• FOCRAII Statement

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Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook
Forum (WCSACOF)

• WCSACOF is coordinated by Centro Internacional
  para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño
  (CIIFEN, International Research Centre on El
  Niño), Guayaquil, Ecuador. The countries
  participating in this RCOF are Bolivia, Chile,
  Colombia, Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela. The latest
  seasonal outlook produced by WCSACOF, other
  forecast products of CIIFEN for the region and
  related information, in Spanish, is available at
  WCSACOF Statements

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Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum
(SSACOF)

• The countries participating in this SSACOF are
  Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The RCOF
  is coordinated by each of the participant
  countries by rotation, and the latest seasonal
  outlook and related products may be obtained from
  the web sites of the respectiveNMHSs
• Argentina http//www.smn.gov.ar/
• Brazil http//www.inmet.gov.br/
• Paraguay http//www.meteorologia.gov.py/
• Uruguay http//www.meteorologia.com.uy/

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The Pacific Islands The Island Climate Update

• The Island Climate Update (ICU) is a
  multi-national and multi-organisational monthly
  climate bulletin with a primary goal of assisting
  Pacific Island Countries (PICs) in making
  informed planning and management decisions
  relating to climate sensitive sectors through the
  provision of timely and accurate seasonal climate
  forecasts. It is published monthly both in print
  and online by the National Institute of Water and
  Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand and is
  funded by the New Zealand Agency for
  International Development (NZAID). The
  participating countries/islands are American
  Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French
  Polynesia, Kiribati, New Caledonia, New Zealand,
  Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Samoa,
  Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu,
  Wallis and Futuna. The latest ICU is available
  at
• http//www.niwascience.co.nz/ncc/icu/

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Pacific Islands online Climate Outlook Forum
(PICOF)

• PICOF is coordinated by the Australian Bureau of
  Meteorology as part of the Pacific Islands -
  Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP) funded by the
  Australian Agency for International Development
  (AusAID). The countries participating in this
  monthly forum are Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati,
  Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands,
  Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Participants use a
  statistical-based model developed under the
  Project, called SCOPIC, to run the seasonal
  climate outlooks for the upcoming three-month
  period. The latest PICOF summary and individual
  country seasonal climate forecasts are available
  at
• http//www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/clim_forecast
  s.shtml
• PI-CPP linkhttp//www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/

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Climate Outlook Forum for Central America

• The Climate Forum of Central America reviews and
  discusses the oceanic and atmospheric conditions
  latest forecasts of global models and their
  implications in the patterns of rainfall and
  temperature in Central America, as well as
  national-level analysis provided by each of
  Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the
  Region and develops a consensus seasonal climate
  outlook. The countries participating in this
  forum are Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El
  Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panamá. The
  latest climate outlook for this region is
  available at
• http//www.aguayclima.com/clima/inicio.htm

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Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF)

• The Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum
  (SEECOF) is the very first regional climate
  outlook forum in Europe. The inaugural session of
  SEECOF was held in Zagreb, Croatia, during 11-12
  June 2008. The countries participating in SEECOF
  are Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia,
  Montenegro, Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic
  of Macedonia, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Rumania,
  Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Further
  details on SEECOF are available at
• http//meteo.hr/SEECOF08/

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Climate Outlook for Cricket in the Caribbean The
Outfield

• There is no doubt as to how influential the rain
  can be in cricket. We just need to look back at
  the past cricket series around the world to find
  several tests and one-day games simply washed
  out due to rain. "The Outfield" is an innovative
  product of the Caribbean Institute for
  Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), dedicated to
  weather and climate information relevant to the
  game of cricket, including outlooks for the
  upcoming cricket events in the Caribbean. The
  latest issue as well as the previous issues of
  "The Outfield" are available at
• http//www.cimh.edu.bb/

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• RCOFs are in operation in many parts of the
  world, mainly serving developing countries
•  
• - CCOF Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum
• - FCCA Foro Regional del Clima de América
  Central
• FOCRAII Forum On regional Climate
  monitoring, assessment and prediction
• for
  Regional Association II (Asia)
• - GHACOF Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook
  Forum
• - PICOF Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum
• - PRESAC Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique
  Centrale
• - PRESAO Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique de
  lOuest
• - SARCOF Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum
• - SEECOF SouthEastern Europe Climate Outlook
  Forum
• - SSACOF Southeast of South America Climate
  Outlook Forum
• - WCSACOF Western Coast of South America Climate
  Outlook Forum
•  
• In some of the regions, RCOF products have been
  expanded from rainfall and temperature outlooks
  in the early years to river discharge, food
  security and malaria outlooks.

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Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

• RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by
  CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate
  functions, including
• Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring
• Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the
  region
• Data services
• Climate Applications
• Training and capacity building
• Research and Development
• RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of
  NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and
  national-scale products
• Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by
  Regional Associations, based on regional needs
  and priorities
• RAs will ensure guidance for and coordination
  between RCCs

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• ET 3.1 worked on the development of a guidance
  document on best practices in downscaling, the
  preliminary draft of which is available. The
  focus of the guidance document is seasonal
  prediction, although the concepts are also
  relevant to downscaling of climate change
  scenariosConsidering that downscaling is a
  crucial activity for both domains whatever the
  method used (statistical, dynamical or hybrid),
• ET 3.1developed a draft statement on the
  Multi-Model Ensemble (MME approach).
• ET 3.1 has developed a guidance document on
  consensus methods for seasonal forecasts. The
  relevant aspects of the RCOF Review 2008 outcomes
  have also been integrated into this document.

32

• OPAG Climate Information and Prediction Services
  (CLIPS) with the following thematic Expert Teams
  (ET) and Rapporteurs
• ET on Research Needs for Intraseasonal, Seasonal
  and Interannual Prediction, including the
  Applications of these Predictions
• ET on CLIPS Operations, Verification and
  Application Services
• ET on El Niño and La Niña
• Rapporteur on Climate and Water to liaise with
  CHy
• Rapporteur on Climate and Agrometeorology to
  liaise with CAgM

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• Expert Team on Research Needs for Intraseasonal,
  Seasonal and Interannual Prediction, including
  the Applications of these Predictions)
• ET 3.1 with the involvement of ET 3.2 developed a
  new design for RCOF operations for Western Africa
  in collaboration with ACMAD, IRI and
  Météo-France. This has been endorsed by
  PRESAO-12.
• ET 3.1 noted that decadal prediction will fill
  the gap between seasonal prediction and climate
  change Seasonal to interannual prediction may be
  considered as the first step to implement
  adaptation to climate change.

34

• ET 3.1 has actively contributed to
• capacity building in CLIPS training activities,
  and also in
• facilitating the use of Climate Predictability
  Tool (CPT) developed by the IRI.
• The ET agreed that CPT is a very useful and
  practical tool for operational seasonal
  prediction, and that a critical review along with
  other similar packages can help in its wider
  usage.
• The ET has worked towards creating a resource
  base for sustained CPT training and development.

35
The IRI Climate Predictability Tool Example of
Calibrating (Correcting) the Precipitation
Forecast of an AGCM
36

• Procedure to access to CPT
• Downloading CPT from the IRI Web Site
• Go to the IRIs home page http//iri.columbia.edu
  /
• Click on Outreach Education
• Click on Climate Predictability Tool
• Click where it says download the
  self-installation file (size 5.0MB)
• Note that you need more than 5 megabytes of
  storage, and preferably at least five times this
  much because some of the data sets may be large.

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• CLIPS Operations, Verification and User Liaison
• A draft updated version of Technical Note 145,
  with a revised title of Socio-economic Benefits
  of Climate Services was compiled by ET 3.2
  consisting of a collection of sector-specific
  papers written by a wide range of experts.
• The papers were edited by Dr Mickey Glantz, and
  the final version is being processed for
  publication as a technical document.

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• - ET 3.2 developed a Draft guidance on best
  practices for verification of seasonal forecasts
  to complement CBS guidelines on standardized
  verification systems (SVS).
• - The draft has been peer reviewed, and the
  revised final draft is under preparation.

39

• ACMAD and IRI have prepared a comprehensive
  verification of RCOF products in Africa. It was
  also presented at the recent RCOF Review held in
  2008.
• ET 3.2 played a key role in this verification
  project, and recommends that training materials
  on verification be developed based on these new
  documents.
• - The RCOFs concept is being extended to northern
  latitudes, and was discussed with a broad
  audience at the recent Polar CLIPS workshop in
  St. Petersburg, Russian Federation.
• - The concept of a Polar Climate Outlook Forum
  (PCOF) has received considerable encouragement,
  and is recognized as a WMO contribution to the
  IPY Legacy.

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• El Niño and La Niña
• WMO has been successfully issuing consensus-based
  El Niño/La Niña Updates, which are well-received
  worldwide.
• ET 3.3 actively participated in the development
  of these El Niño/La Niña updates, and also
  provided guidance on their structure and
  development process.
• ET 3.3 discussed the development of an Atlas on
  impacts of El Niño/La Niña, and developed an
  outline and some demonstrative examples.
• The ET recommends that the initial version of the
  atlas may be in the form of web-based products,
  which can gradually pave the way for a stable
  hard copy version. Through informal
  consultations,

41
Moroccan experience with CLIPS Utilization of
CLIPS Tool Box LRF concept, verification and
operation is tailored coherence with guidelines
of ET 1, ET2 activities . User liason is
inspired from the RCOF concept (to be compared
with the guidlines of user-liason) As a
corelation is istablished between El Nino
pattern and late rainy season a Close monitoring
of El Nino conditions is performed
42
Climate Service Existing solutions at international level Capacity to implement this solution at national level Resources to be provided and Actions to be taken to implement the solution at national level Acompagining mesures to ensure sustainability
Water resource planing Yes reservoir 3 layer modelling Partly Atmospheric model OK International, sectoral, political support and partnership Operational chaine maintenance and upgrading, communication and end user dialogue, Qmformalism,,,
CLIPS TOOL BOX involvement Guidlines, statments, research founding, succes stories (CLIPS ET1 area and rapporteurs) Benchhmark of similar countries Existing transferable applications and tools CLIPS focal points CLIPS ET2 area and rapporteurs) Existing permanent product as EL Nino statement, CLIPS Curriculum CLIPS all Expert Team areas and rapporteurs End user liason, verification tools Continuous training and invitations of new comers. RCOFs, NCOFs,
43
Moroccan Experience .... and CLIPS
E N D - U S E R S
D E V E L O P P E M E N T
44
Implementation of a seasonal forecast system

• ?Seasonal forecast of two meteorological
  parameters
• precipitation and temperature
• In order to
• Help decision makers to plan economic activities
  in advance,
• Reduce the harmful effects of droughts,
• Manage water resources and agricultural
  activities

45
Implementation of a seasonal forecast system

• Prospecting different ways statistical,
  dynamical, statistico-dynamical
• Evaluation of the relationship between Moroccan
  precipitation and large scale fields (SST, NAO,
  NHTP, ENSO, ..)
• Installation, adaptation and evaluation of
  Climate model
• Bulletins for seasonal forecasts

46
Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and
large scale fields
Relationship betwwen NAO and Moroccan
precipitation winter season
47
Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and
large scale fields
Correlation between SST and Moroccan
precipitation.
48

• Different types of forecasts
• - Ensemble forecasts (9 to 18 members)
• Deterministic forecasts anomalies, by classes
  (terciles, quintiles, )
• Probabilistic forecasts (in the near future with
  the new computer)
• Methods of evaluation
• - Evaluation comparing predicted classes to
  observed ones
• - Evaluation comparing observed and predicted
  anomalies (CCA, )

49
Elaboration process of seasonal forecast
Boundary conditions
50
ARPEGE-Climate model (French model)

• Atmosoheric General Circulation
  Model
• Dynamical model
• Regular grid 300km
• Operational since 98 version 1, version 2,
  version 3,version 4
• Currently ARPEGE-climat is turned each month in
  version 3(forced mode)
• and version 4 (coupled mode)operational since
  01/2010

51
Version 4 of ARPEGE-climat in coupled mode
Oceanic forcing
Atmospheric forcing
Atmospheric Initial conditions Issued from ECMWF
analysis
Initial oceanic conditions issued
from MERCATOR-OCEAN
52
Example of seasonal forecast bulletin
.
BULLETIN DE PRÉVISION SAISONNIÈRE 
Précipitations et Températures Issu le
20/10/2007 Echéance  Novembre-Décembre-Janvier
2007-2008 (NDJ 07-08) Nous
présentons ci-après la prévision saisonnière
issue du modèle dynamique global ARPEGE-Climat
opérationnel à la Direction de la Météorologie
Nationale et tourné chaque mois pour produire
des prévisions d'ensemble de 9 membres. A
linstar de ce qui se fait à léchelle
internationale et pour plus de comparaisons, nous
joignons à notre prévision un ensemble de
prévisions saisonnières de centres
météorologiques mondiaux de bonne renommée,
toutes élaborées à titre expérimental. Les
évaluations faites sur nos régions sont
encourageantes. Cependant, elles ne donnent pas à
ce jour des scores comparables à ceux des régions
pacifiques tropicales où le signal de
prévisibilité est relativement important comme
cest le cas pour le phénomène EL
NINO. Remarque  Les termes températures /
précipitations  normales ,  froides /
humides  ou  chaudes / sèches  sont liés aux
valeurs du paramètre durant le trimestre
considéré. Ainsi  Températures / précipitations
froides / sèches ? valeurs inférieures aux
normales saisonnières. Températures /
précipitations normales ? valeurs équivalentes
aux normales saisonnières. Températures /
précipitations chaudes / humides ? valeurs
supérieures aux normales saisonnières
Synthèse Prévision saisonnière des températures
et précipitations sur le royaume
Lanalyse globale de lensemble des prévisions de
précipitations et de températures issues des
différents modèles pour la saison de
Novembre-Décembre-Janvier 2007 donne un signal
normal à légèrement sec en précipitations et
normal à légèrement chaud en températures sur le
royaume.
53
Drought monitoring Bulletin
Lanalyse de lindice SPI montre que le mois de
novembre 2008 a été normal à humide pour
lensemble du pays. Certaines zones comme Taza et
Errachidia ont connu un état humide à très
humide. P.S Les qualificatifs normal,sec,hum
ide , sont relatifs à la normale de la zone et
le mois considérés.
Le SPI est un indice utilisé pour quantifier le
déficit de précipitation à différentes échelles
temporelles. Ces échelles reflètent l'impact de
la sécheresse sur la disponibilité des ressources
hydriques. Le calcul du SPI pour une période
donnée et une localité donnée est basé sur les
données historiques des précipitations. La série
historique des données est ajustée à une
distribution des probabilités, de sorte que les
valeurs de SPI suivent une loi normale centrée
réduite avec une moyenne de 0 et un écart type de
1.
Le même indice peut être utilisé pour lalerte en
terme de prévision.
54
End-user Dialogue Toward a National Climate
Outlook Forum (NCOF) DMN has established a
periodic evaluation and guidance council in order
to validate and listen to end-users. This event
helps DMN to understand the needs of
the end-users and provides a platform for the
users to learn how to use the information DMN
provides. The council is attended by users from
all sectors including agriculture, water, energy,
air and marine navigation, and scientific
research.
55
End-User Dialogue Toward a National Climate
Outlook Forum (NCOF) In addition to this, as
recommended by the council, an annual sector
council is organized. The main objective of this
council is to stimulate the use of
sector-specific information in an ongoing,
iterative process of dialogue between the
producers of climatic information and the
multitude of users in Morocco.
56
End-User Dialogue Toward a National Climate
Outlook Forum (NCOF) Collaboration with
end-users focuses on the following objectives
Evaluate user needs Develop and demonstrate
applications which address practical user needs
Establish interactive dialogue with primary
users Develop data/information delivery
systems. Consensus forecast
57
The recommendations that result from the council
are translated to budgetary actions for
developing application tools based on monthly and
seasonal products, as well as hydrological and
environment tools for delivering useful products
and services.
58
Agriculture As a direct result of establishing a
dialogue with users, DMN has created two
agro-meteorological centres in Beni Mellal and
Taroudant, and developed a tool to aid
decision-making in the agriculture domain. The
purpose of this application is to make users
aware of the potential benefits that farmers can
gain from improving efficiency and ensuring the
sustainability of farm management(health of
crops, livestock, and the environment to increase
their yield and the market value of their crops,
as well as to solve operational problems).
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Comparison between observed and forecasted yield
1989-1998
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Sowing Date
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Cartes de risque des incendies de forêts
Service Provincial des Eaux et Forêts de Tétouan
Probabilité déclosion
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18
12
13
39
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Prévisions de probabilité déclosion du 5/8/2008
Rif
Nord-Ouest
Nord-Est
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Risque déclosion faible (1x1 km)
Risque déclosion Moyen (1x1 km)
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Climate change program

• Observation and climate monitoring
• Detection
• Climate change scenarios
• Using dynamical downscaling
• Using statistical downscaling
• Assisting users
• - Providing climate information for present
  and futur
• - Documents and bulletins
• - Accompanying climate impact studies
• - Animation of workshops .
• - National and international projects

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From CLIPS to GFCS CLIPS ToolBox
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The Proposed Framework

• Global Framework for Climate (Prediction and
  Information) Services (GFCS)
• Will improve and coordinate
• climate services and observations (CLIPS
  concerns )
• sector and user targeted services
  (CLIPS-RCOF-NCOF)
• capacity building (CLIPS Training Workshop)
• collaborative research (CLIPS ET 3.1)
• user interface with climate products and
  information providers (RCOF-NCOF)
• Development of policies to support application of
  climate services for societal benefit (RCOF-NCOF)

World Climate Conference-3Better climate
information for a better future
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Sustainability (lessons learned) CLIPS A
solid basis for further development of
User-targeted Climate Services (GFCS ToolBox vers
0)

• Training
• Build global curriculum on seasonal prediction
  for use by specialized training centres and NMHSs
• Train the trainers
• Costs
• Engage the user sectors if the value of the
  climate information is demonstrated to business
  and policy users, they are more likely to support
  the process
• Explore cost-efficient methods for collaboration
  where possible (email, teleconference, etc.)
• Succession planning
• Keep bringing new people on board
• Foster an atmosphere of continual learning keep
  up with research
• Institutionalize the process within the regions
  creating sustained networking of relevant
  climate/user agencies Regional Drought
  Monitoring/Management Centres can play a pivotal
  role to nurture and sustain RCOFs
• Local ownership
• Local ownership of the RCOF process and minimal
  dependence on external sources are critical to
  the sustainability of RCOFs

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CLIPS Recent Deliverables(ToolBox)
COMPLETED
Under Finalization

• Catalogue of Indices and Definitions of El Niño
  and La Niña in Operational Use by WMO Members.
  (Horsfall et al.), June 2006. Evolutive web doc
• The Aral Sea Water, Climate and Environmental
  Change in Central Asia. (Glantz and Zonn), 2005
• Glossary of verification terms published in
  Forecast Verification A Practitioner s Guide in
  Atmospheric Science, (Jolliffe and Stephenson,
  Eds.), Wiley.
• Living with Climate Variability and Change (Espoo
  Conference Report) 

• Guides/Guidelines
• CLIPS Guides to Best Practices (ET 3.2)
• RCOF Operations (Tibaijuka et al.)
• Forecast Verification (Mason et al.)
• User Liaison (Helminen et al.)
• CLIPS Guideline Documents (ET3.1)
• Downscaling
• Multi-model ensembles
• Atlas
• Atlas of El Niño/La Niña Impacts
• Updating of Technical Note
• TN 145 The socio-economic benefit of
  Climatological services. (Helminen et al.)

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CLIPS Recent activities

• ENSO Communication workshop (April 2008)
• SEECOF (Zagreb, 11-12 June 2008)
• WMO/WCRP/IPY Workshop on CLIPS in Polar Regions
  (St. Petersburg, 8-11 September 2008)
• ET 3.1 Meeting and Open Seminar on SIP (Silver
  Spring, 23-26 September 2008)
• Global RCOF Review (Arusha, October 2008)

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• FUTURE EVOLUTION
• The CLIPS projects vision, objectives and
  achievements are expected to be integrated into
  the upcoming Global Framework for Climate
  Services (GFCS). For the remaining time, a
  special focus will be given to further develop
  the national level by improving the user liaison
  as well as end user services within, e.g.,
  National Climate Outlook Forums on the basis of
  global and regional centres and mechanisms, like
  GPCs, RCCs and RCOFs.

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• The future evolution of CLIPS is being built on
  the foundation provided by the achievements and
  assessments presented above. Elements of future
  CLIPS activities may include
• a holistic capacity building effort on existing
  institutions and infrastructure development,
  training extended to all stakeholders including
  users in natural resource management as well as
  policy making positions, networking and
  partnerships
• demonstration projects on the application of the
  latest advances in climate science, review and
  update of climate products to improve climate
  services
• expansion and/or integration of global, regional
  and national climate outlooks
• expansion of RCCs and National Climate Centres
• support to the development of more iterative
  provider-user interfaces at global, regional and
  national levels.

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Thank You