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The Climate Information


... Services ET on El Ni o and La Ni a Rapporteur on Climate and Water to liaise with CHy Rapporteur on Climate and Agrometeorology to liaise with CAgM * Expert ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Climate Information

The Climate Information Prediction Services
(CLIPS) Project (of WMO) The Tool Box concept
A. MokssitDirector Met Service MoroccoChair
of OPAG3 (CLIPS)IPCC WG1 vice chair
  • Introduction-Generalities-Examples of succes
  • GFCS Objectives
  • CLIPS project the status
  • Moroccan experience with CLIPS
  • From CLIPS to GFCS CLIPS ToolBox
  • Conclusion

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????? 2000
?????? 2005
?????? 2006
???????? 2002
?????? 2009
??? ??????? 2008
Some succes stories
  • Dam managmnt
  • Forest plainting
  • Agricultural campagne
  • Extreme event
  • Flood (Ourika 95300 deaths, Ourika 2OO7 1
    deaths but same infrastructure damage
  • Build user confidence

Climate Services
  • The term climate services refers to the
    delivery of climate information and predictions
    from the scientific sources to end-users
  • A service is a service only when it is used our
    goal is to make people use climate services in
    real-world context
  • Climate information is just one of the elements
    in the decision making matrix
  • Databases of information gathered over many
    years NMHSs have great potential to exploit
    these resources to provide effective climate
  • Predictions of climate variability over the next
    season (or seasonal to interannual forecasts) are
    of immediate relevance of the ability of users to
    act on the basis of climate information

Climate Prediction Framework
Climate Change.
Anthropogenic Forcing
Climate Variability
Outlook Prediction
Boundary Conditions
Threats Assessments
2 Weeks
1 Week
Initial Conditions
Warnings Alert Coordination
Adapted from NOAA
State/Local Planning
Space Applications
Protection of Life Property
Fire Weather
Water Management
Water Resource Planning
  • Global Framework Climate Services Objective
  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
    its partner organizations co-sponsoring WCC-3
    propose the establishment of a new Global
    Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to
  • enable climate adaptation and climate risk
    management through the incorporation of
    science-based climate information and prediction
    into policy and practice at all levels.
  • GFCS will have four major components
  • Observation and Monitoring
  • Research and Modeling
  • a Climate Services Information System and
  • a Climate Services Application Programme.

CLIPS project the status
  • Since 1999
  •  Congress-XIII (1999) agreed to the following
    four slightly refined objectives for the
    continuing implementation of the CLIPS project,
    which are still valid
  • (a) To demonstrate the value and eventual
    socio-economic benefits of climate information
    and prediction services
  • (b) To provide an international framework to
    enhance and promote climate information and
    prediction, including the establishment of
    criteria to measure forecast quality and to
    permit model intercomparison
  • (c) To encourage the development of operational
    climate prediction
  • (d) To facilitate the definition, the
    development and the strengthening of a global
    network of regional/national climate centres

CLIPS (1/2)
  • The CLIPS project builds on
  • The past decades of successful atmospheric and
    oceanographic research (e.g., Climate/ENSO
    predictability Coupled atmosphere-ocean
    modelling, )
  • Improved climate monitoring (e.g., TAO buoys) and
    data management capabilities
  • A developing capability to predict climate on
    monthly, seasonal and interannual time scales,
    and regional space scales
  • Effective networking of climate providers as well
    as users, and the development of consensus
    approach to climate outlooks (RCOFs, El Niño/La
    Niña update)

CLIPS (2/2)
  • Mechanisms to provide climate services involving
    global (GPCs Global Producing Centres) and
    regional climate centres (e.g., DMCs, ACMAD,
    CIIFEN, RCCs), as well as the NMHSs
  • Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
  • Training of experts from NMHSs (CLIPS National
    Focal Points) and end-users (RCOFs, CLIPS

CLIPS Infrastructure and Forecasting
  • Access to Global Producing Centres
  • Regional Climate Centres
  • Examination of forecast presentation methods
  • Best practices
  • Downscaling and Regional Climate Models
  • Development of Regional Climate Outlook Forums
  • Joint activities with research programmes such as
    WCRP to bring in state-of-art science into
    climate services.

  • Coordination of demonstration and pilot projects
  • Involvement of Focal Points in demonstration and
    pilot projects
  • Partnership with application sectors at national,
    regional and global levels
  • Examination of improved project design
  • Examination of impacts of climate services on
  • Examination of data requirements.

Capacity Building
  • Establish and network CLIPS Focal Points
  • A global network of climate scientists/service
    providers specially trained in climate science,
    statistical modelling and prediction,
    applications and project management.
  • These CLIPS Focal Points ensure national and
    regional coordination of climate information and
    prediction products.
  • Reporting of CLIPS activities by CLIPS Focal
    Points, and sharing the experiences through WMO.
  • Development of CLIPS Training Curriculum
  • Regional/sub-regional CLIPS Training Workshops
  • User-awareness development through workshops,
    projects and Climate Outlook Forums

  • The CLIPS Curriculum is structured into 5 groups,
    which, all in all, brings together more than 70
    individual modules/presentations as of 2009
  • Background and Science
  • Climate and Climatology
  • Forecast, Models and Verfications
  • Tools
  • Applications
  • (cf. http//
  • Short evaluation The CLIPS Curriculum evolution
    experienced an enthusiastic start. Within a
    relatively short period during 1999 to 2001, many
    high-quality modules were provided by well-known
    specialists. It turned out, however, that further
    expanding and updating the modules and developing
    them into standard training modules and courses
    have been a challenge. Currently, conceptual
    considerations are under way to update the
    Curriculum considering support to climate change
    adaptation and climate risk management as
    priorities and to ensure its sustainability.

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
  • A component of CLIPS
  • First established in 1996 Meeting in Victoria
    Falls, Zimbabwe.
  • Regional mechanism for the formulation and
    dissemination of climate forecasts and outlooks
  • Bring together providers of and users of SIPs.
  • RCOFs, initiated just prior to the major
    19971998 El Niño event, constitute an important
    vehicle in developing regions for providing
    advance information on the likely climate
    features of the upcoming season, and for
    developing a consensus product from amongst the
    multiple available individual predictions.
  • RCOFs stimulate the development of climate
    capacity in the NMHSs of the area, and do much to
    generate decisions and activities that mitigate
    adverse impacts of climate and help communities
    adapt to climate variability.

  • Regular Forums in some regions where NMHSs meet
    to develop regional consensus on SIPs.
  • Several forums held throughout the world, notably
    in Africa, South America, Central America,
    Pacific Islands and Asia.

Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum

GHACOF covers the countries Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. GHACOF is being coordinated by the IGAD (Inter-Governmental Authority on Development) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya. The latest GHACOF statement as well as previous statements are available at GHACOF Statements
Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum
  • SARCOF is a regional climate outlook prediction
    and application process adopted by the fourteen
    countries comprising the Southern African
    Development Community (SADC) Member States
    Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo,
    Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia,
    Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania,
    Zambia and Zimbabwe in conjunction with other
    partners. SARCOF is coordinated by the SADC
    Drought Monitoring Centre (SADC-DMC), Gaborone,
    Botswana. The latest SARCOF statement as well as
    previous statements are available atSARCOF

RCOF for West Africa (PRESAO PRÉvisions
Saisonnières en Afrique de l'Ouest)
  • PRESAO, a Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)
    activity dedicated to West Africa, is coordinated
    by the African Centre of Meteorological
    Application for Development (ACMAD), Niamey,
    Niger. The latest PRESAO statement as well as
    previous statements and other related climate
    outlook products are available at PRESAO

FOCRAII Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring,
Assessment and Prediction for Regional
Association II (Asia)
  • FOCRAII covers all the countries in Asia, most of
    them part of the WMO Regional Association II.
    Beijing Climate Center (BCC) of China
    Meteorological Administration (CMA) has been
    coordinating FOCRAII activities. The latest
    seasonal outlook produced by FOCRAII and other
    related information is available at
  • FOCRAII Statement

Western Coast of South America Climate Outlook
  • WCSACOF is coordinated by Centro Internacional
    para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño
    (CIIFEN, International Research Centre on El
    Niño), Guayaquil, Ecuador. The countries
    participating in this RCOF are Bolivia, Chile,
    Colombia, Ecuador, Perú and Venezuela. The latest
    seasonal outlook produced by WCSACOF, other
    forecast products of CIIFEN for the region and
    related information, in Spanish, is available at
    WCSACOF Statements

Southeast of South America Climate Outlook Forum
  • The countries participating in this SSACOF are
    Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The RCOF
    is coordinated by each of the participant
    countries by rotation, and the latest seasonal
    outlook and related products may be obtained from
    the web sites of the respectiveNMHSs
  • Argentina http//
  • Brazil http//
  • Paraguay http//
  • Uruguay http//

The Pacific Islands The Island Climate Update
  • The Island Climate Update (ICU) is a
    multi-national and multi-organisational monthly
    climate bulletin with a primary goal of assisting
    Pacific Island Countries (PICs) in making
    informed planning and management decisions
    relating to climate sensitive sectors through the
    provision of timely and accurate seasonal climate
    forecasts. It is published monthly both in print
    and online by the National Institute of Water and
    Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand and is
    funded by the New Zealand Agency for
    International Development (NZAID). The
    participating countries/islands are American
    Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French
    Polynesia, Kiribati, New Caledonia, New Zealand,
    Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Samoa,
    Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu,
    Wallis and Futuna. The latest ICU is available
  • http//

Pacific Islands online Climate Outlook Forum
  • PICOF is coordinated by the Australian Bureau of
    Meteorology as part of the Pacific Islands -
    Climate Prediction Project (PI-CPP) funded by the
    Australian Agency for International Development
    (AusAID). The countries participating in this
    monthly forum are Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati,
    Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands,
    Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Participants use a
    statistical-based model developed under the
    Project, called SCOPIC, to run the seasonal
    climate outlooks for the upcoming three-month
    period. The latest PICOF summary and individual
    country seasonal climate forecasts are available
  • http//
  • PI-CPP linkhttp//

Climate Outlook Forum for Central America
  • The Climate Forum of Central America reviews and
    discusses the oceanic and atmospheric conditions
    latest forecasts of global models and their
    implications in the patterns of rainfall and
    temperature in Central America, as well as
    national-level analysis provided by each of
    Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the
    Region and develops a consensus seasonal climate
    outlook. The countries participating in this
    forum are Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El
    Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panamá. The
    latest climate outlook for this region is
    available at
  • http//

Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF)
  • The Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum
    (SEECOF) is the very first regional climate
    outlook forum in Europe. The inaugural session of
    SEECOF was held in Zagreb, Croatia, during 11-12
    June 2008. The countries participating in SEECOF
    are Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia,
    Montenegro, Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic
    of Macedonia, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Rumania,
    Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Further
    details on SEECOF are available at
  • http//

Climate Outlook for Cricket in the Caribbean The
  • There is no doubt as to how influential the rain
    can be in cricket. We just need to look back at
    the past cricket series around the world to find
    several tests and one-day games simply washed
    out due to rain. "The Outfield" is an innovative
    product of the Caribbean Institute for
    Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), dedicated to
    weather and climate information relevant to the
    game of cricket, including outlooks for the
    upcoming cricket events in the Caribbean. The
    latest issue as well as the previous issues of
    "The Outfield" are available at
  • http//

  • RCOFs are in operation in many parts of the
    world, mainly serving developing countries
  • - CCOF Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum
  • - FCCA Foro Regional del Clima de América
  • FOCRAII Forum On regional Climate
    monitoring, assessment and prediction
  • for
    Regional Association II (Asia)
  • - GHACOF Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook
  • - PICOF Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum
  • - PRESAC Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique
  • - PRESAO Prévision Saisonnière en Afrique de
  • - SARCOF Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum
  • - SEECOF SouthEastern Europe Climate Outlook
  • - SSACOF Southeast of South America Climate
    Outlook Forum
  • - WCSACOF Western Coast of South America Climate
    Outlook Forum
  • In some of the regions, RCOF products have been
    expanded from rainfall and temperature outlooks
    in the early years to river discharge, food
    security and malaria outlooks.

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
  • RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by
    CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate
    functions, including
  • Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring
  • Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the
  • Data services
  • Climate Applications
  • Training and capacity building
  • Research and Development
  • RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of
    NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and
    national-scale products
  • Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by
    Regional Associations, based on regional needs
    and priorities
  • RAs will ensure guidance for and coordination
    between RCCs

  • ET 3.1 worked on the development of a guidance
    document on best practices in downscaling, the
    preliminary draft of which is available. The
    focus of the guidance document is seasonal
    prediction, although the concepts are also
    relevant to downscaling of climate change
    scenariosConsidering that downscaling is a
    crucial activity for both domains whatever the
    method used (statistical, dynamical or hybrid),
  • ET 3.1developed a draft statement on the
    Multi-Model Ensemble (MME approach).
  • ET 3.1 has developed a guidance document on
    consensus methods for seasonal forecasts. The
    relevant aspects of the RCOF Review 2008 outcomes
    have also been integrated into this document.

  • OPAG Climate Information and Prediction Services
    (CLIPS) with the following thematic Expert Teams
    (ET) and Rapporteurs
  • ET on Research Needs for Intraseasonal, Seasonal
    and Interannual Prediction, including the
    Applications of these Predictions
  • ET on CLIPS Operations, Verification and
    Application Services
  • ET on El Niño and La Niña
  • Rapporteur on Climate and Water to liaise with
  • Rapporteur on Climate and Agrometeorology to
    liaise with CAgM

  • Expert Team on Research Needs for Intraseasonal,
    Seasonal and Interannual Prediction, including
    the Applications of these Predictions)
  • ET 3.1 with the involvement of ET 3.2 developed a
    new design for RCOF operations for Western Africa
    in collaboration with ACMAD, IRI and
    Météo-France. This has been endorsed by
  • ET 3.1 noted that decadal prediction will fill
    the gap between seasonal prediction and climate
    change Seasonal to interannual prediction may be
    considered as the first step to implement
    adaptation to climate change.

  • ET 3.1 has actively contributed to
  • capacity building in CLIPS training activities,
    and also in
  • facilitating the use of Climate Predictability
    Tool (CPT) developed by the IRI.
  • The ET agreed that CPT is a very useful and
    practical tool for operational seasonal
    prediction, and that a critical review along with
    other similar packages can help in its wider
  • The ET has worked towards creating a resource
    base for sustained CPT training and development.

The IRI Climate Predictability Tool Example of
Calibrating (Correcting) the Precipitation
Forecast of an AGCM
  • Procedure to access to CPT
  • Downloading CPT from the IRI Web Site
  • Go to the IRIs home page http//
  • Click on Outreach Education
  • Click on Climate Predictability Tool
  • Click where it says download the
    self-installation file (size 5.0MB)
  • Note that you need more than 5 megabytes of
    storage, and preferably at least five times this
    much because some of the data sets may be large.

  • CLIPS Operations, Verification and User Liaison
  • A draft updated version of Technical Note 145,
    with a revised title of Socio-economic Benefits
    of Climate Services was compiled by ET 3.2
    consisting of a collection of sector-specific
    papers written by a wide range of experts.
  • The papers were edited by Dr Mickey Glantz, and
    the final version is being processed for
    publication as a technical document.

  • - ET 3.2 developed a Draft guidance on best
    practices for verification of seasonal forecasts
    to complement CBS guidelines on standardized
    verification systems (SVS).
  • - The draft has been peer reviewed, and the
    revised final draft is under preparation.

  • ACMAD and IRI have prepared a comprehensive
    verification of RCOF products in Africa. It was
    also presented at the recent RCOF Review held in
  • ET 3.2 played a key role in this verification
    project, and recommends that training materials
    on verification be developed based on these new
  • - The RCOFs concept is being extended to northern
    latitudes, and was discussed with a broad
    audience at the recent Polar CLIPS workshop in
    St. Petersburg, Russian Federation.
  • - The concept of a Polar Climate Outlook Forum
    (PCOF) has received considerable encouragement,
    and is recognized as a WMO contribution to the
    IPY Legacy.

  • El Niño and La Niña
  • WMO has been successfully issuing consensus-based
    El Niño/La Niña Updates, which are well-received
  • ET 3.3 actively participated in the development
    of these El Niño/La Niña updates, and also
    provided guidance on their structure and
    development process.
  • ET 3.3 discussed the development of an Atlas on
    impacts of El Niño/La Niña, and developed an
    outline and some demonstrative examples.
  • The ET recommends that the initial version of the
    atlas may be in the form of web-based products,
    which can gradually pave the way for a stable
    hard copy version. Through informal

Moroccan experience with CLIPS Utilization of
CLIPS Tool Box LRF concept, verification and
operation is tailored coherence with guidelines
of ET 1, ET2 activities . User liason is
inspired from the RCOF concept (to be compared
with the guidlines of user-liason) As a
corelation is istablished between El Nino
pattern and late rainy season a Close monitoring
of El Nino conditions is performed
Climate Service Existing solutions at international level Capacity to implement this solution at national level Resources to be provided and Actions to be taken to implement the solution at national level Acompagining mesures to ensure sustainability
Water resource planing Yes reservoir 3 layer modelling Partly Atmospheric model OK International, sectoral, political support and partnership Operational chaine maintenance and upgrading, communication and end user dialogue, Qmformalism,,,
CLIPS TOOL BOX involvement Guidlines, statments, research founding, succes stories (CLIPS ET1 area and rapporteurs) Benchhmark of similar countries Existing transferable applications and tools CLIPS focal points CLIPS ET2 area and rapporteurs) Existing permanent product as EL Nino statement, CLIPS Curriculum CLIPS all Expert Team areas and rapporteurs End user liason, verification tools Continuous training and invitations of new comers. RCOFs, NCOFs,
Moroccan Experience .... and CLIPS
E N D - U S E R S
Implementation of a seasonal forecast system
  • ?Seasonal forecast of two meteorological
  • precipitation and temperature
  • In order to
  • Help decision makers to plan economic activities
    in advance,
  • Reduce the harmful effects of droughts,
  • Manage water resources and agricultural

Implementation of a seasonal forecast system
  • Prospecting different ways statistical,
    dynamical, statistico-dynamical
  • Evaluation of the relationship between Moroccan
    precipitation and large scale fields (SST, NAO,
    NHTP, ENSO, ..)
  • Installation, adaptation and evaluation of
    Climate model
  • Bulletins for seasonal forecasts

Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and
large scale fields
Relationship betwwen NAO and Moroccan
precipitation winter season
Evaluating the link between Moroccan climate and
large scale fields
Correlation between SST and Moroccan
  • Different types of forecasts
  • - Ensemble forecasts (9 to 18 members)
  • Deterministic forecasts anomalies, by classes
    (terciles, quintiles, )
  • Probabilistic forecasts (in the near future with
    the new computer)
  • Methods of evaluation
  • - Evaluation comparing predicted classes to
    observed ones
  • - Evaluation comparing observed and predicted
    anomalies (CCA, )

Elaboration process of seasonal forecast
Boundary conditions
ARPEGE-Climate model (French model)
  • Atmosoheric General Circulation
  • Dynamical model
  • Regular grid 300km
  • Operational since 98 version 1, version 2,
    version 3,version 4
  • Currently ARPEGE-climat is turned each month in
    version 3(forced mode)
  • and version 4 (coupled mode)operational since

Version 4 of ARPEGE-climat in coupled mode
Oceanic forcing
Atmospheric forcing
Atmospheric Initial conditions Issued from ECMWF
Initial oceanic conditions issued
Example of seasonal forecast bulletin
Précipitations et Températures Issu le
20/10/2007 Echéance  Novembre-Décembre-Janvier
2007-2008 (NDJ 07-08) Nous
présentons ci-après la prévision saisonnière
issue du modèle dynamique global ARPEGE-Climat
opérationnel à la Direction de la Météorologie
Nationale et tourné chaque mois pour produire
des prévisions d'ensemble de 9 membres. A
linstar de ce qui se fait à léchelle
internationale et pour plus de comparaisons, nous
joignons à notre prévision un ensemble de
prévisions saisonnières de centres
météorologiques mondiaux de bonne renommée,
toutes élaborées à titre expérimental. Les
évaluations faites sur nos régions sont
encourageantes. Cependant, elles ne donnent pas à
ce jour des scores comparables à ceux des régions
pacifiques tropicales où le signal de
prévisibilité est relativement important comme
cest le cas pour le phénomène EL
NINO. Remarque  Les termes températures /
précipitations  normales ,  froides /
humides  ou  chaudes / sèches  sont liés aux
valeurs du paramètre durant le trimestre
considéré. Ainsi  Températures / précipitations
froides / sèches ? valeurs inférieures aux
normales saisonnières. Températures /
précipitations normales ? valeurs équivalentes
aux normales saisonnières. Températures /
précipitations chaudes / humides ? valeurs
supérieures aux normales saisonnières
Synthèse Prévision saisonnière des températures
et précipitations sur le royaume
Lanalyse globale de lensemble des prévisions de
précipitations et de températures issues des
différents modèles pour la saison de
Novembre-Décembre-Janvier 2007 donne un signal
normal à légèrement sec en précipitations et
normal à légèrement chaud en températures sur le
Drought monitoring Bulletin
Lanalyse de lindice SPI montre que le mois de
novembre 2008 a été normal à humide pour
lensemble du pays. Certaines zones comme Taza et
Errachidia ont connu un état humide à très
humide. P.S Les qualificatifs normal,sec,hum
ide , sont relatifs à la normale de la zone et
le mois considérés.
Le SPI est un indice utilisé pour quantifier le
déficit de précipitation à différentes échelles
temporelles. Ces échelles reflètent l'impact de
la sécheresse sur la disponibilité des ressources
hydriques. Le calcul du SPI pour une période
donnée et une localité donnée est basé sur les
données historiques des précipitations. La série
historique des données est ajustée à une
distribution des probabilités, de sorte que les
valeurs de SPI suivent une loi normale centrée
réduite avec une moyenne de 0 et un écart type de
Le même indice peut être utilisé pour lalerte en
terme de prévision.
End-user Dialogue Toward a National Climate
Outlook Forum (NCOF) DMN has established a
periodic evaluation and guidance council in order
to validate and listen to end-users. This event
helps DMN to understand the needs of
the end-users and provides a platform for the
users to learn how to use the information DMN
provides. The council is attended by users from
all sectors including agriculture, water, energy,
air and marine navigation, and scientific
End-User Dialogue Toward a National Climate
Outlook Forum (NCOF) In addition to this, as
recommended by the council, an annual sector
council is organized. The main objective of this
council is to stimulate the use of
sector-specific information in an ongoing,
iterative process of dialogue between the
producers of climatic information and the
multitude of users in Morocco.
End-User Dialogue Toward a National Climate
Outlook Forum (NCOF) Collaboration with
end-users focuses on the following objectives
Evaluate user needs Develop and demonstrate
applications which address practical user needs
Establish interactive dialogue with primary
users Develop data/information delivery
systems. Consensus forecast
The recommendations that result from the council
are translated to budgetary actions for
developing application tools based on monthly and
seasonal products, as well as hydrological and
environment tools for delivering useful products
and services.
Agriculture As a direct result of establishing a
dialogue with users, DMN has created two
agro-meteorological centres in Beni Mellal and
Taroudant, and developed a tool to aid
decision-making in the agriculture domain. The
purpose of this application is to make users
aware of the potential benefits that farmers can
gain from improving efficiency and ensuring the
sustainability of farm management(health of
crops, livestock, and the environment to increase
their yield and the market value of their crops,
as well as to solve operational problems).
(No Transcript)
Comparison between observed and forecasted yield
Sowing Date
Cartes de risque des incendies de forêts
Service Provincial des Eaux et Forêts de Tétouan
Probabilité déclosion
Prévisions de probabilité déclosion du 5/8/2008
Risque déclosion faible (1x1 km)
Risque déclosion Moyen (1x1 km)
Climate change program
  • Observation and climate monitoring
  • Detection
  • Climate change scenarios
  • Using dynamical downscaling
  • Using statistical downscaling
  • Assisting users
  • - Providing climate information for present
    and futur
  • - Documents and bulletins
  • - Accompanying climate impact studies
  • - Animation of workshops .
  • - National and international projects

The Proposed Framework
  • Global Framework for Climate (Prediction and
    Information) Services (GFCS)
  • Will improve and coordinate
  • climate services and observations (CLIPS
    concerns )
  • sector and user targeted services
  • capacity building (CLIPS Training Workshop)
  • collaborative research (CLIPS ET 3.1)
  • user interface with climate products and
    information providers (RCOF-NCOF)
  • Development of policies to support application of
    climate services for societal benefit (RCOF-NCOF)

World Climate Conference-3Better climate
information for a better future
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Sustainability (lessons learned) CLIPS A
solid basis for further development of
User-targeted Climate Services (GFCS ToolBox vers
  • Training
  • Build global curriculum on seasonal prediction
    for use by specialized training centres and NMHSs
  • Train the trainers
  • Costs
  • Engage the user sectors if the value of the
    climate information is demonstrated to business
    and policy users, they are more likely to support
    the process
  • Explore cost-efficient methods for collaboration
    where possible (email, teleconference, etc.)
  • Succession planning
  • Keep bringing new people on board
  • Foster an atmosphere of continual learning keep
    up with research
  • Institutionalize the process within the regions
    creating sustained networking of relevant
    climate/user agencies Regional Drought
    Monitoring/Management Centres can play a pivotal
    role to nurture and sustain RCOFs
  • Local ownership
  • Local ownership of the RCOF process and minimal
    dependence on external sources are critical to
    the sustainability of RCOFs

CLIPS Recent Deliverables(ToolBox)
Under Finalization
  • Catalogue of Indices and Definitions of El Niño
    and La Niña in Operational Use by WMO Members.
    (Horsfall et al.), June 2006. Evolutive web doc
  • The Aral Sea Water, Climate and Environmental
    Change in Central Asia. (Glantz and Zonn), 2005
  • Glossary of verification terms published in
    Forecast Verification A Practitioner s Guide in
    Atmospheric Science, (Jolliffe and Stephenson,
    Eds.), Wiley.
  • Living with Climate Variability and Change (Espoo
    Conference Report) 
  • Guides/Guidelines
  • CLIPS Guides to Best Practices (ET 3.2)
  • RCOF Operations (Tibaijuka et al.)
  • Forecast Verification (Mason et al.)
  • User Liaison (Helminen et al.)
  • CLIPS Guideline Documents (ET3.1)
  • Downscaling
  • Multi-model ensembles
  • Atlas
  • Atlas of El Niño/La Niña Impacts
  • Updating of Technical Note
  • TN 145 The socio-economic benefit of
    Climatological services. (Helminen et al.)

CLIPS Recent activities
  • ENSO Communication workshop (April 2008)
  • SEECOF (Zagreb, 11-12 June 2008)
  • WMO/WCRP/IPY Workshop on CLIPS in Polar Regions
    (St. Petersburg, 8-11 September 2008)
  • ET 3.1 Meeting and Open Seminar on SIP (Silver
    Spring, 23-26 September 2008)
  • Global RCOF Review (Arusha, October 2008)

  • The CLIPS projects vision, objectives and
    achievements are expected to be integrated into
    the upcoming Global Framework for Climate
    Services (GFCS). For the remaining time, a
    special focus will be given to further develop
    the national level by improving the user liaison
    as well as end user services within, e.g.,
    National Climate Outlook Forums on the basis of
    global and regional centres and mechanisms, like
    GPCs, RCCs and RCOFs.

  • The future evolution of CLIPS is being built on
    the foundation provided by the achievements and
    assessments presented above. Elements of future
    CLIPS activities may include
  • a holistic capacity building effort on existing
    institutions and infrastructure development,
    training extended to all stakeholders including
    users in natural resource management as well as
    policy making positions, networking and
  • demonstration projects on the application of the
    latest advances in climate science, review and
    update of climate products to improve climate
  • expansion and/or integration of global, regional
    and national climate outlooks
  • expansion of RCCs and National Climate Centres
  • support to the development of more iterative
    provider-user interfaces at global, regional and
    national levels.

Thank You
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