The Islamic Revival and World Politics

1
The Islamic Revival and World Politics

• Kevin J. Benoy

2
Background to Islam

• Islam is a religion based on the teachings of
  Mohammed.
• It is the majority religion in all of the Arab
  countries, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
  Malaysia, Indonesia and the Turkic successor
  states of the former Soviet Union.

3
Background to Islam

• Mohammed was born in 570 AD in Mecca.
• His first revelation was in 610.
• From this and later revelations came the Moslem
  holy book the Koran.

4
Background to Islam

• Islam is more than just a religion it is a way
  of life.
• It has a strong evangelical streak to it, with
  followers called upon to spread the word.
• This has, in the past, been done by the sword as
  well as the word.

5
Background to Islam

• Early on the religion experienced a fundamental
  split that continues to divide it.
• With the murder of the 3rd Caliph, the prophets
  son-in-law, Ali, became the leader in 656. He
  too was assassinated in 661 and the Governor of
  Syria established himself as leader, instead of
  Alis descendents.
• Today, 90 of Moslems are Sunni (those who accept
  the succession of the Caliph) and 10 Shia (who
  follow the descendents of Ali).
• Shias form a big majority in Iran, and a slight
  majority in Iraq and Bahrain while Sunnis
  predominate elsewhere.

6
Background to Islam

• Further splits relate to racial and national
  divisions.
• Arabs and Persians see themselves as different,
  as do Syrians and Jordanians.
• As with Christians, there are also divisions
  between orthodox practitioners and those whose
  faith is more liberal.
• On the other hand, other factors pull all Moslems
  together like the yearly haj.

7
Islam in the Modern World

• Moslems, like Christians, faced strong secular
  pressure in the last century or so.
• This was further complicated by the effects of
  colonialism and decolonization.
• Pressures within Moslem societies have been
  great.
• Modernization has also led to huge class
  differences as rural peasants lived in almost
  feudal conditions, while the rich and upper
  middle class lived like westerners.
• Traditional values remain strongest with the poor
  and with those who most strongly sympathize with
  them.

8
Islam and Government

• In many Moslem countries, Islamic principles
  underpin national laws just as Judeo-Christian
  values lie at the heart of most Western legal
  systems.
• In some, religion is more than just a
  philosophical basis as Islam does not separate
  beliefs from actions.
• Some Moslem states implement Sharia, religious
  law. For instance, they forbid charging interest
  on loans or proscribe amputation of a thiefs
  right hand.

9
Islam and Government

• In Saudi Arabia, punishments today are as they
  were in the day of Mohammed.
• Thieves may have a hand amputated.
• Adulterers are stoned to death.
• The testimony of a man is worth twice that of a
  woman.
• Under Sharia law, corporal punishment is meted
  out and the public invited to attend floggings.
  This is very like what happened in pre-modern
  Europe.

10
The Iranian Revolution

• Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Aryamehr Iran
  prospered economically from the windfall profits
  of petroleum products.
• The country became a regional political and
  military power as the Shah invested heavily in US
  equipment, becoming the policeman of the Gulf,
  with American blessing.

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The Iranian Revolution

• While the Shah, his family and supporters lived
  in opulence, little benefit accrued to the rural
  and urban poor.
• Religious leaders objected to the increasing
  secularization of the country as the Shah pushed
  modernization.
• The Shah dismissed calls for Sharia law as
  anachronistic.

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The Iranian Revolution

• In addition, the Shah increasingly relied on
  brutal actions by SAVAK Irans secret police
  against critics.
• In doing so, and in his serving American
  interests, the Shah alienated much of the middle
  class.
• US involvement in overthrowing the democratically
  elected government of Iran in 1953 to put the
  Shah in power -- was long a source of resentment
  of the West.

13
The Iranian Revolution

• In 1978 things began to spin out of control for
  the Shah.
• In January, religious dissidents were fired on in
  the religious city of Qom.
• In February there were riots in Tabriz and small
  towns.
• In May the universities were close and protests
  and strikes in the Tehran bazaar became
  commonplace.
• By late 1978 the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an
  exiled cleric living in Paris, became the symbol
  of religious opposition. The clerics refused to
  compromise with the government, demanding a
  return to Islamic principles and an end to
  Westernization.

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The Iranian Revolution

• Riots and strikes brought violent responses.
• On September 8 between 100 and 200 demonstrators
  were gunned down by security forces.
• By November, the armed forces were needed to back
  up the police.
• The country was placed under military rule.

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The Iranian Revolution

• The economy collapsed as little productive work
  could be done in an atmosphere of perpetual
  strikes and protests.
• The Shah acknowledged that he could no longer
  impose his will.
• On January 1, 1979, General Gholam Reza Azhari
  was replaced as Prime Minister by the reformer
  Shahpur Bakhtiar, who insisted that the Shah
  leave the country which he did on January 126
  after urging the military to remain loyal to the
  new regime.

16
The Iranian Revolution

• Further radicalization followed the return of
  Khomeini on February 1.
• He called for establishing an Islamic Republic.
• Bakhtiar tried to hold on to existing
  constitutional principles, but was forced out of
  office, into hiding, and into exile after the
  army withdrew support.

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The Iranian Revolution

• The army itself was deeply divided.
• There was no cooperation between the army and air
  force.
• Fearing complete disintegration, the army
  generals ordered their troops to remain in
  barracks, but when civilians and Islamic
  guerillas overran the major Tehran army bases
  army morale completely broke down.
• Armed fanatics now controlled the city streets
  and power shifted from the official government to
  Khomeini and his Revolutionary Council.

18
The Iranian Revolution

• Momentum was with Khomeini.
• On March 30-31, 1979, a referendum overwhelmingly
  accepted establishing an Islamic Republic.
• A President and representative assembly would be
  elected by universal suffrage, but they had
  little power.
• A Council of Guardians, composed of clerics,
  would oversee the passage of all legislation.
• Final decision making rested in a faqih the
  leading theologian in the country.

19
The Iranian Revolution

• Khomeimi eliminated vestiges of opposition.
• Revolutionary authorities executed hundreds.
• Revolts in minority areas (especially Turkomen
  and Kurdish) were suppressed.
• Leftists and others attempted to turn the
  situation to their favour, but were crushed
  though several clerics were assassinated and
  others injured.

20
Iranian Foreign Policy

• Iranian foreign policy shifted dramatically.
• Iran became anti-American and anti-Soviet.
• The regime threw its support behind Shia
  minorities in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Gulf states
  and Lebanon.
• Religion, rather than political ideology, now
  drove policy.
• Fortunately for Irans Sunni neighbours, the
  revolution also sapped Irans military potential.

21
Irans Economic Trouble

• The economy crumbled.
• Many middle class Iranians fled the country, not
  wishing to live under a fundamentalist regime.
• Anti-Khomeini sabotage was a problem.
• The government took over many large enterprises,
  starting with private banks, then insurance
  companies, and finally all major companies.
• Foreign investment withdrew, taking capital and
  expertise with them.

22
The Hostage Crisis

• On November 4, 1979 radical Islamic students
  stormed the US embassy in Iran, holding 55
  Americans prisoner until January, 1981.
• The US responded by freezing Iranian assets.
• In April, 1980 a US special forces operation to
  free the hostages failed miserably.
• Iran was an international pariah.

23
The Iran-Iraq War

• Seeking to take advantage of Irans military
  decline, Iraq invaded Kurdistan and Khuzestan
  provinces in September, 1980.
• The Iraqis likely expected anti-Khomeini forces
  would rise up however the opposite occurred.
  Iranians of all beliefs united against this
  foreign invasion.

24
Iran Iraq War

• Iraq found itself in a prolonged conflict against
  a country with a much bigger population.
• Saddam Hussein was armed by the US.
• Iran secretly received parts for their US
  aircraft from Israel which found it useful to
  have two strong opponents butchering each other
  for nearly a decade (until 1988).

25
Iran Under Khomeini

• The war helped solidify Khomieni and the Islamic
  revolution.
• Religious principles underpinned Iranian society
  politically and economically.
• The Iranian theocracy served as a model for
  Islami fundamentalists elsewhere to strive for.

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The Soviets and Afghanistan

• This remote, mountainous, backwards country has
  long been of strategic importance.
• In the 19th century it was at the heart of the
  Great Game as the Russians and British both
  sought to extend influence into the country with
  little success.
• Bordering directly on Afghanistan, Soviet concern
  for the area continued in the 20th century.

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The Soviets and Afghanistan

• In 1978 a coup overthrew the 5 year old
  government of Sarder Mohammad Daud replacing it
  with a pro-Soviet regime under Nur Mohammad
  Taraki who renamed the country the Peoples
  Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.
• In September, 1979, Taraki was killed in another
  coup by Hafizullah Amin and a Soviet sponsored
  counter-coup followed, led by Babrak Karmal, who
  called upon the Soviet Union to supply troops to
  help him.

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The Soviets and Afghanistan

• The attitude of many Afghanis to the governments
  after Daud was hostile especially among the
  orthodox Moslems who made up most of the
  population.
• Moslem fundamentalists were also encouraged by
  events in Iran and Pakistan, where Islamization
  was taking place.
• Fighting broke out between religiously-motivated
  rebels and Afghan government forces.

29
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• The Soviets were concerned with events in
  Afghanistan for two key reasons
• They feared the rising tide of Moslem
  fundamentalism because of their own large (and
  growing) Moslem population within their own
  borders. Anti-Soviet broadcasts from Shia Iran
  were bad enough. A fundamentalist and mostly
  Sunni Afghanistan was more threatening still.
• No nation feels secure with chaos and civil war
  on its border. The Soviets wanted a stable
  neighbour particularly one that stood for
  similar social values to its own.

30
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• The Soviets did not expect to station forces in
  Afghanistan for a decade.
• At first the troops sent came from the Central
  Asian republics but they proved unreliable.
  They were replaced by European Soviet units.

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The Soviets and Afghanistan

• Afghan rebels proved more difficult to deal with
  than expected.
• Veterans of tribal wars and fiercely independent,
  the mujehaddin believed they were involved in a
  jihad a holy war against infidel Soviets.

32
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• A third of Afghanistans population eventually
  lived in exile, fleeing the bloody conflict and
  providing a vast pool of disaffected people from
  which jihadists could be drawn.
• Soviet forces had difficulty distinguishing
  mujehaddin from ordinary peasants and many
  innocents were killed breeding new hatred.

33
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• Support for the Mujehaddin was strong in the Arab
  world which meant considerable Gulf money
  financing their efforts and Arab volunteers to
  fight for the cause.
• A war that started with antique rifles and
  home-made weapons escalated rapidly.

34
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• More importantly, the conflict occurred while the
  Cold War was still active.
• The US saw an opportunity to turn it into a
  Soviet Vietnam.
• Very sophisticated weapons were provided to the
  mujehaddin including the lethal stinger
  hand-held anti-aircraft missiles much of this
  aid funnelled through Pakistan and their
  militarys Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) unit.

35
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• The war was costly to the Soviets in lives,
  treasure and diplomacy.
• Western countries boycotted the Moscow Olympics.
• The world arms markets were awash in
  sophisticated weaponry that found customers in
  Asia, Africa and beyond.

36
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• The human cost of the war was staggering
• Almost 15,000 Soviet lives were lost.
• 54,000 were wounded or injured.
• 88 of Soviet forces suffered serious illness.
• 1-2 million Afghanis died.
• In the 1980s half of the worlds refugees were
  from Afghanistan.
• In February1988 the Soviets withdrew, leaving
  the Afghanis to conclude the war themselves.

37
The Soviets and Afghanistan

• The Soviet-backed government held on in Kabul
  until 1992.
• Fighting between Mujehaddin groups continued as
  ethnic divisions split the country.
• Unity was not restored in most of the country
  until the Taliban emerged. Beginning their drive
  for power in 1994, they took Kabul in 1996
  though the Northern Alliance continued to rule
  parts of the country.
• Islamic fundamentalism underpinned Taliban rule
  with womens rights (extended with Soviet help)
  stripped and music and entertainment banned.
  Sharia law was rigidly enforced.

38
Afghan Aftermath

• Weapons from the Afghan war flooded the world
  as did committed jihadists from Kosovo to
  Lebanon to Chechnya, well armed fundamentalists
  were buoyed by their defeat of a super-power.
• Returning Arab fighters had much to oppose when
  they returned to their authoritarian governed
  homelands.
• In 1992 a military coup prevented the coming to
  power of the Moslem Brotherhood in Algeria.
• Ongoing civil war in Chechnya cost lives in the
  affected area, while terrorism spread to Moscow
  itself.

39
Kuwait and the First Gulf War

• Saddam Hussein faced economic collapse at the end
  of the Iran-Iraq war.
• In 1990 he gambled with an invasion of oil-rich
  Kuwait on questionable historical grounds.
• Arab neighbours and Western Countries were taken
  aback.
• US President George Bush put together an alliance
  to oppose the move and ultimately reverse it.

40
Kuwait and the First Gulf War

• A Western air campaign quickly destroyed the
  Iraqi air force.
• Smart bombs and cruise missiles disabled Iraqi
  command and control capabilities.
• When the ground campaign began, in early August,
  1990 Operation Desert Storm had rapid success.

41
Kuwait and the First Gulf War

• While the war was being fought, Saddam Hussein
  sought to break the coalition by bringing Israel
  into the conflict hopefully splitting the Arab
  and Western allies.
• Scud missiles fired at Tel-Aviv brought no
  Israeli response as the US promised to deliver
  the new Patriot anti-missile system to them,
  provided they kept out of the conflict.
• Fears that Hussein might employ chemical weapons
  in the Scud attacks that were also launched
  against Saudi Arabia -- came to nothing. Iraq
  understood that any such escalation might lead to
  an Israeli nuclear response.

42
Gulf War Aftermath

• The speed of Iraqs collapse caught many by
  surprise.
• The coalition worked hard to promote dissent in
  Iraq prior to the collapse resulting in
  uprisings in the North by Kurds and by Shia in
  the South.
• By surrendering quickly and accepting the loss of
  Kuwait, Saddam preserved much of his military
  force which he then turned on the rebels.
• The coalition achieved its goals and now it
  turned its back on the Kurds and Shia.
• Only a humanitarian disaster caused
  reconsideration as hundreds of thousands of Kurds
  fled across the mountains into Turkey a country
  with a Kurdish problem of its own.

43
Gulf War Aftermath

• A safe zone was established in the North for the
  Kurds.
• A no-fly zone in both North and South forbade
  Iraqi aircraft from attacking.
• Saddam Hussein continued to rule harshly, but was
  restrained somewhat by threats from the West.

44
9-11

• On September 11, 2001 Americans were horrified by
  the coordinated attacks upon the World Trade
  Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington
  by Osama bin Ladens Al-Qaeda group.
• Americans were shocked by terrorism at home, but
  this was not Al-Qaedas first attacks on America
  attacks on a US warship in Yemen and American
  embassy in Kenya preceded it.
• Armed and supported by the US in the Afghan war
  bin Laden was consistent in his ideology,
  opposing American secularism as he opposed Soviet.

45
Response to 9-11

• Osamas goal was to bring an American backlash
  against the Moslem world that would stimulate
  anti-Western feeling and possibly topple
  pro-American Arab regimes.
• What would the Americans do?
• Two schools of thought were voiced
• Moderates, like Colin Powell wanted a measured
  response.
• Radicals, like Paul Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney
  called for a general attack on terrorists and the
  states that sponsored them including Iraq.

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Response to 9-11

• Al-Qaeda was quickly identified as the
  perpetrator.
• The US prepared a dramatic response against the
  it and the Taliban regime that allowed it to
  operate in Afghanistan.
• Working with the Northern Alliance and with NATO
  allies, the Americans quickly took control of the
  country, forcing Taliban and Al Qaeda across the
  border into Pakistans tribal territories.
• The war now moved into a low-intensity conflict
  that still continues.
• The Americans set up an administration under
  Hamid Karzai but real power in much of the
  country is in the hands of local warlords.
• A decade of war left nothing resolved and the
  conflict seems more and more to parallel the
  Soviet experience though with lower casualties.

47
Response to 9-11

• The US administration sought to use global
  sympathy to push a larger agenda.
• George W. Bush proclaimed a War on Terror.
  Many observers noted that this was an illogical
  concept one can fight a particular group or
  country...but a tactic?
• The declaration was largely unchallenged in the
  aftermath of 9-11, however.

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Response to 9-11

• The US passed the Patriot Act, which drastically
  curtailed civil rights allowing arrest and
  detention without establishing cause.
• A detention camp was set up at Guantanamo Bay
  specifically to avoid possible interference by
  courts in the (mis)treatment of prisoners.
• Other countries also passed similar laws, though
  none so far-reaching as the US.

49
Response to 9-11

• Bush went on to talk of an axis of evil
  including Iran, Iraq and North Korea all
  contributors to global terrorism.
• In June, he enunciated the so-called Bush
  Doctrine, claiming for America the right to take
  pre-emptive action against its enemies anywhere
  in the world without international sanction.
  The lack of serious public debate of this
  pronouncement was astonishing but clearly
  limited by public fear in the aftermath of 9-11.

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Response to 9-11

• Within the US government, the hawks won the day.
• In September, 2002 Iraq announced that UN weapons
  inspectors could look for weapons of mass
  destruction in the country to prevent a
  Bush-led pre-emptive strike.
• The US claimed Iraq was continuing secret
  chemical and nuclear weapon production.
• Colin Powell addressed the UN Security Council,
  presenting intelligence supporting the US
  position.
• What he seems not to have known is that Vice
  President Cheneys office cited dubious
  intelligence and ignoring the CIA information on
  this file.

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Response to 9-11

• Cheney and the US hawks insisted that Iraq was
  involved in the 9-11 attacks. A case was being
  made for war.
• On March 21, 2003 US, British and other troops
  invaded Iraq, quickly crushing resistance.
• On May 1 George Bush announced that major combat
  operations in Iraq have ended and that the
  Battle of Iraq is one victory in a war on terror
  that began on September the 11th, 2002, and still
  goes on.

52
Response to 9-11

• However, the war did not end. It merely entered
  a new phase a guerrilla conflict, something the
  military terms assymetrical warfare and the
  politicians called an insurrection.
• No WMDs were found. Revelations of the use of
  torture by Americans at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq
  and Guantanamo Bay simply turned the Arab
  Street against the US.

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Responces to 9-11
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Response to 9-11

• Furthermore, the use of pre-emptive war, the
  stripping of civil rights in the US and in allied
  countries, the revelation of special rendition of
  prisoners to 3rd states for torture and the
  reality of a war on terror that might never end
  to justify it all worried many.
• Moslems wondered why the war on terror seemed to
  focus only on Moslems when terrorism was a global
  phenomenon.
• Bin Laden failed in trying to create a crisis
  that would topple Arab regimes and help create
  new theocracies.
• However, wars killing large numbers of Moslems,
  created huge resentments everywhere in the Moslem
  world.

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Response to 9-11

• The 9-11 response reinforced the feelings of some
  in the West that we were engaged in what
  historian Samuel P. Huntingdon termed a clash of
  civilizations. He theorized that radical Islam
  and liberal democracy were antithetical. Another
  historian, Paul Johnson argued that Islam was a
  religion spread by the sword and motivated by
  fundamentalist beliefs opposed to Western
  thinking.
• To policy makers raised under the Cold War
  paradigm, this provided a new and simple world
  view. Arms manufacturers identify a new foe and
  those who sought restriction of civil rights, a
  new justification.

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The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath

• In the 1990s American neo-conservatives argued
  that America might impose a democracy in the
  Middle East that would become a model for change.
• The Invasion of Iraq was thought to provide this
  opportunity but American imposed Iraqi
  democracy was messy, with sectarian disputes
  causing friction and no agreement about what
  democracy looks like.
• In 2010 demonstrations against authoritarian
  regimes began in many Arab countries this time
  the call for democracy was internal triggered
  by the suicide of Mohammed Bouazizi after
  authorities impounded his market cart and beat
  him and other officials refused to hear his
  complaint.
• A small demonstration in his hometown resonated
  everywhere and popular rage against authoritarian
  government in Tunisia exploded.

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The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath

• Attempts to put down the demonstrations led to
  hundreds of deaths and many injuries.
• In the end, the military withdrew its support of
  the government of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. He
  resigned and an interim government promised
  reforms and free elections.

59
The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath

• In January 2011, demonstrators appeared in Tahrir
  Square, Cairo.
• The Jasmine Revolution spread to Egypt, the most
  populous and important Arab state.
• President Mubarak used security forces to try to
  end the demonstrations, but failed. The army was
  reluctant to move against the demonstrators.
• Cosmetic changes to government similarly did not
  result in an end to demonstrations that now
  extended throughout the country.
• Mubarak himself resigned and an interim
  government promised a referendum on
  constitutional change and free elections to
  follow.
• The March 20 referendum passed and significant
  guarantees were made to the rights of Egyptians.

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The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath

• Demonstrations also spread to Yemen, Jordan,
  Bahrain and Syria where governments promised
  reforms, but delivered little (to the time of
  writing).
• In Libya it sparked a civil war, with opponents
  of the long-term autocrat Ghaddafi found success
  in the East, but were repressed in the West.

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The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath

• Western governments, taken by surprise in this
  Arab Spring played only a peripheral role in
  most Arab countries.
• In Libya they took a more active role.
• A no-fly zone was declared in Libyan airspace
  to prevent the better armed government forces
  from crushing the rebels.
• The rationale was to protect civilian lives.
  However, it was also clear that the Western
  forces were supportive of the rebels, though
  their mission was not cleared to effect regime
  change. Rules of engagement seem murky and one
  wonders what might emerge if this conflict lasts
  very long.

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The Jasmine Revolution and its Aftermath

• Where all of this is headed is unsure.
• Regimes that waiver will disappear. Some that do
  may be replaced by new regimes that differ little
  from the old but that play a better public
  relations game.
• Other regimes will weather the storm and be even
  more repressive to do so.
• Theocracies may result in one or more countries.
• However, out of this should emerge some
  home-grown democracies that better meet the
  aspirations of their people. Westerners should
  not expect that their goals are identical to our
  own though.
• The world is more complicated than our simple
  ideological positions tell us. We cannot expect
  everyone elses aspirations to be like our own.

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