Urban Air Quality and Climate Change: Scaling up winwin solutions for Asia

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Urban Air Quality and Climate ChangeScaling up
win-win solutions for Asia
Draft 3 January, 2008

• Cornie Huizenga, Sophie Punte
• CAI-Asia Center
• The United States-Japan Workshop on
• The Co-benefits of Climate Actions in Asia
• Bangkok, Thailand
• 22 April 2008

Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia A CAI-Asia
Program
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Outline

• The case for a co-benefit approach in Asia
• Co-benefits a closer look
• Adoption of co-benefits in Asia
• What is CAI-Asia doing on co-benefits

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• Part 1 The case for a co-benefit approach in
  Asia

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Air Pollution and Climate Change Link
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
GLOBAL AIR POLLUTION
REGIONAL AIR POLLUTION
URBAN AIR POLLUTION
Greenhouse gases covered by Kyoto Protocol
BC
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Future Challenge Asia Link AQM with GHG emissions

• Integrating air pollution abatement and
  climate change mitigation policies offers
  potentially large cost reductions compared to
  treating those policies in isolation Source
  IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2006

GHG emissions
Air quality
Quantity
2050
2030
2020
Time
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• Part 2 Co-benefits a closer look

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Evolution in knowledge on co-benefits

• Over last 2 years there has been an increase in
• Co-benefit policy analysis e.g. Europe, AB 32,
  city level
• Integration of CO2 in analytical tools SIM air,
  GAINS Asia, IES
• Technology case studies
• Coal fired power plants (efficiency and FDG)
• Lighting
• Bio-fuels
• Energy Efficiency
• E-bikes
• But, no consensus yet on what the specific impact
  of co-benefits approach will be on absolute
  reduction of GHG in developed world and on
  reduction of increase in developing countries
• Overall co-benefits remain aspirational concept
  rather than well defined and operationalized
  policy concept

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Health benefits of European climate policies in
2020 (billions euros)
Source AEAT (2006)
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PlaNYC Co-benefits New York City Energy System
Analytical Tools Shaping the Next Generation of
Carbon Regulation and Trading The New York
Metropolitan Area Case Studies by Edward J.
Linky, Vatsal J. Bhatt John C. Lee Sustainable
Development Law Policy, Vol VIII. Issue II,
Winter 2008
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Potential AQ co-benefits of CO2 reductions in
China

• Realizing the Chinese energy related
  CDM-potential will reduce SO2-emissions between
  one-half and three million tons, or 2.515 of
  current emissions.
• Perhaps even more remarkably, between 2,700 and
  38,000 lives may be saved annually if China
  realizes its CDM potential.
• A third item is the additional benefits to
  health and other receptors. The monetary value of
  additional benefits has been estimated at 145
  billion RMB per year.
• These benefits do not depend on using CDM, which
  merely is a financing mechanism, to realize
  CO2-abatement. They follow from any program that
  reduces CO2-emissions in China, be they increases
  in power plant efficiency, upgrades of industrial
  boilers, or fuel switches.

Source Domestic environmental benefits of
Chinas Energy-related CDM potential, Haakon
Vennemo et. al. Climatic Change (2006) DOI
10.1007/s10584-006-1834-0
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Improved Efficiency of Coal Fired power plants

• Improve the efficiency of coal fired power plants
  will reduce the emission of criteria pollutants
• Desulphurization of flue gasses will increase
  energy use but if combined with general overhaul
  of the power plant can still lead to reduced
  energy use
• Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) can
  drastically reduce CO2 emissions but has an
  energy penalty which will lead to increased air
  emissions

Source www.power-technology.com
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Vertical Shaft Brick Kilns in Nepal

• Reduce 0.32625 kg of total suspended particulate
  (TSP) per 1000 bricks.
• Conversion of all 75 natural draught brick kilns
  in Kathmandu valley to forced draught ones would
  reduce 171.28 metric tons of dust,
• Cost analysis indicated an increase of about 2.18
  US per 1000 bricks.
• For 1, 00,000 bricks per kiln, 1.9 Gg of CO2, per
  season, more than 61 percent, would be prevented
  from getting into the atmosphere.

Source TECHNOLOGY FOR REDUCTION OF PARTICULATE
DISCHARGE AND GHG FROM BRICK KILNS Prof. Rabindra
N. Bhattarai., Bikram Prajapati, Daya Ram
Nhuchhen, and Shankar Prasad Dahal, abstract
submitted to BAQ 2008
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Transport options to reduce air pollution and CO2
Source Authors, adopted from GTZ, 2007
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PM10 and CO2 Forecast for China and India
(Transport)
Thousand Tons of PM10
Million Tons of CO2
Projected PM10 and CO2 are based on current
plans for emission (Euro) standards and fuel
efficiency targets in China and India.
Intervention is required to also bring down CO2
emissions from transport.
China, P.R.
India
Source ADB, 2006
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E-bikes in China

• China now produces 16 million E-bikes per year
  from 40,000 in 1998
• E-bikes are now in the majority in many of the
  Chinese cities
• E-bikes have an advantage in air pollutants
  over traditional motor cycles, and cars
• E-bikes have an advantage in GHG over cars,
  traditional motor cycles and busses
• E- bikes can result in other environmental
  problems lead acid batteries

Source Preliminary results Environmental
Impacts of E-Bikes in Chinese Market, Christopher
Cherry-University of Tennessee Jonathan
Weinert-Univ. of CA-Davis Chevron, Yang
Xinmiao-Tsinghua University
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Bus Rapid Transit

• Bus rapid transit is emerging as new paradigm for
  public transport in Asia
• Secondary benefits fuel saving and time saving
  which are often much larger than GHG savings
• However, carbon savings if monetarized accrue to
  the operator and mean direct cash in hand and
  which can help ensure proper operation of the
  system (and make the difference between success
  and failure)

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Bio-fuels or bio-fools?

• Concerns
• AQ impacts (e.g. bio-diesel NOx)
• GHG impacts- LCA land-use and land conversion
• Competition for land and water
• Effect on food prices

Source Raju, 2006. Biofuels in South Asia An
Overview
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Initial lessons learned

• Changes in Technology can best generate
  co-benefits if they result in reduced energy use
  e.g. compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs)
• Changes in technologies can have conflicting
  outcomes whereby reduction in either Air
  pollutants or CO2 results in increase of other
• Best co-benefit strategies are the ones based on
  carbon avoidance, rather than reduction. This is
  especially relevant for Asia where many of the
  GHG emissions are not yet there, unlike Europe
  and USA where energy and transport sectors are
  already largely mature

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• Part 3 Adoption of Co-benefits in Asia

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Why are co-benefits important in Asia ?

• To limit temperature increase to 2 degree Celsius
  Fourth Assessment Report IPCC WG III, calls for
  drastic cut in global emissions by 2050 (60-80
  for developed countries and 20 for developing
  countries) compared to 1990
• Co-benefits approach can help to reduce the slope
  of increase in GHG emissions in Asia and to bring
  forward the time that GHG emissions will start to
  decline in absolute terms
• This can have tangible air quality benefits
• Health impacts
• Environmental benefits acidification,
  euthrophication
• Economic benefits

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Economic Growth and Air Pollution Trend Asia
1992- 2006
Electricity Generation, 129
I NCREASE
Energy Consumption, 79
GDP (constant 1990), 65
GDP per cap, 45
Urban population share, 25
DECREAS E
NO2, - 14
PM10, - 20
TSP, - 25
SO2, - 32
Sources BP Statistical Review of World Energy
June 2007 - http//www.bp.com/statisticalreview UN
DESA - http//esa.un.org/unpp
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CO2 Emission Characteristics Asia
Source World Bank. 2008. Towards a Strategic
Framework on Climate Change and Development for
the World Bank Group Consultation Draft
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Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions
Source Energy Information Administration.
International Energy Outlook 2007
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Scaling up co-benefits in Asia the need for
coordinated action on 3 fronts

• Cities in Asia are growing fast and over next 20
  years close 500 million 1 billion people will
  move to cities
• Cities are improving/expanding their transport,
  energy and building infrastructures which will
  lock in emissions for the next 20-40 years
• We need to ensure
• Comprehensive coverage for 2500 cities with more
  than 100,000 persons
• To move from awareness, to analysis to action in
  the form of policies and investments
• To address Power, Industry, Transport and
  Domestic emissions

Cities
2500
Triple A
2000
Action
1500
Analysis
1000
Awareness
500
Sustainable City
Sector
Co-benefits
Sustainable Development
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Co-benefits in Asia part of a larger picture

• Co-benefits can not be seen in isolation, but are
  part of larger sustainable development debate
• Barriers to co-benefits are often same as general
  sustainable development
• Environmental costs not internalized
• Limited institutional capacities for
  environmental policy formulation and
  implementation
• Imperfect energy and transport markets
• Implementation of co-benefits can/will not go
  much faster than overall development process

Global/Regional
National
Province/State
City
Policy
Technology
Finance
Institutional mandate
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Agreements policies standards Climate
Change and Air Quality

• Global/Regional level
• No global agreement
• CLRTAP in Europe a success
• Regional agreements in Asia slow in coming
  EANET, ASEAN Haze agreement, Male Declaration
• National level
• Clean air legislation, AQ standards in place but
  not well enforced
• No or limited targets
• Sectoral policies and targets
• Not widely used in Asia
• Urban level
• Limited policies and capacity

Climate Change
Air Quality

• Global/regional level
• Kyoto protocol No obligations developing
  countries, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Bali Action Plan nationally appropriate
  mitigation actions by developing country Parties
• National level policies
• China, Korea, India
• No or limited targets
• Sectoral targets
• Energy efficiency China, Viet Nam, generally not
  in Asia
• Urban level
• Limited level of activity

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Co-benefits policy retro-fit or development of
new policies

• Once decision to aim for reduction of GHG
  emissions through a co-benefit approach has been
  taken
• What existing policies should be retrofitted to
  incorporate the co-benefit perspective. Biggest
  discussion in the USA, retrofit the Clean Air Act
  and if, how?
• Problem in Asia is that in many cases the
  existing policy framework is missing or
  incomplete which makes retrofitting difficult or
  not desirable
• Preferred option for GHG emission reduction in
  Europe and USA is/will be Cap and trade
  approach to drive technological and behavioral
  change
• Asian countries have limited experience with
  economic instruments and cap and trade approach
  is likely still at least 10 years away for most
  Asian countries
• Asian countries will advance co-benefits approach
  through command and control and through voluntary
  action

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CDM has had limited success in reducing CO2
Emissions in Asia
1.5
3.0
Source Energy Information Administration.
International Energy Outlook 2007 IGES 2008 CDM
Database
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Co-benefit dimension of CDM projects is uncertain
Olsen, K.H., Fenhann, J., Sustainable development
benefits of clean development mechanism....
Energy Policy (2008), doi10.1016/j.enpol.2008.02
.039

• A common conclusion across different assessment
  methodologies is that the CDM does not
  significantly contribute to SD if it is left to
  the market forces (Olsen, 2007)
• No international standard for SD exists, as
  developing countries argued this would impinge on
  their sovereignty (UNEP Riso 2007)
• DNAs have yet to become more specific in defining
  their sustainable development criteria. (
  environmental benefits in general, project
  shall be subject to EIA)

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Challenges

• Policy
• Scientific understanding between AQ and Climate
  Change
• Find appropriate balance between technological
  fixes and demand management to reduce AP and CC
• Find balance between economic instruments
  (emission trading cap and trade) and command
  and control measure for both AP and CC
• Linkage Mitigation Adaptation Co-benefits
• Finance
• Appropriate local financing mechanisms which will
  enable Asian cities to generate clean
  infrastructure (transport, power) and buildings
• Define role of ODA and Carbon financing in
  catalyzing, facilitating local investments
• Institutional mandates
• Define responsibilities and powers of cities in
  Asia in initiating adaptation and co-benefit
  approaches to urban air pollution and climate
  change
• Establish/ strengthen capacities of public
  sector, private sector and other stakeholders to
  initiate co-benefits approach
• Technology
• Speed up dissemination of cleaner co-benefit
  technology transfer from developed countries
• Continue to develop Asian cleaner co-benefit
  technologies

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• Part 4 CAI-Asia activities
• on co-benefits

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CAI-Asia Activities on co-benefits (1)

• CAI-Asia paper on status of co-benefits in Asia-
  June 2007 (http//www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412
  /article-71843.html)
• Co-benefits integrated in major CAI-Asia
  programs
• Sustainable Urban Mobility in Asia (SUMA) program
  ongoing
• Co-controls of air quality management and climate
  change mitigation in China under planning (with
  Norwegian partners)
• International workshop on co-benefits in
  September 2008 by Global Atmospheric Pollution
  Forum (GAPF)

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CAI-Asia Activities on co-benefits (2)

• CAI-Asia is planning a convening meeting of city
  based climate and co-benefits initiatives
• City networks as well as regional and national
  local government associations
• Initiatives, networks and programs with a climate
  and co-benefit focus working at a regional level
  in Asia
• Regional organizations with a policy mandate that
  includes environment and climate change in Asia
• Regional organizations funding Climate related
  programs and projects
• Three questions
• What are possible mechanisms to expand the number
  of Asian cities with on the ground activities on
  mitigation, adaptation and co-benefits?
• How can the current focus of the regional
  initiatives, networks and programs be
  increasingly shifted from awareness raising, and
  analysis to on the ground action ?
• What institutional arrangements would be best
  suited to facilitate the envisaged improved
  coordination and cooperation among regional
  initiatives, networks and programs working on
  climate change mitigation, adaptation and
  co-benefits in Asia cities?
• Meeting to be organized with support from
  Rockefeller Foundation, UNEP and possibly
  Ministry of Environment Japan and City
  Development Initiative for Asia

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