How to make the World

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How to make the World Aware that the Party is Over
Kjell Aleklett Uppsala University Sweden
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International Workshop On Oil DepletionIWOOD2002
Uppsala, Sweden, May 23-25, 2002
http//www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/ The ASPO
Statistical Review of Oil and Gas
http//www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002/ASPO/ASPO-Stat-Rev.
html
Statement by Matthew Simmons, energy adviser for
President Bush  We need a wake up call. We
need it desperately. We need basically a new form
of energy. I dont know that there is one. 
(TV4, Sweden)
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Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Group
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Growth

Eden
Gated Eden
Splitting
The fall of the Empire
Global Darwinism
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Needed for a good party
Good music Plenty of food Champagne, Champagne
and Champagne
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Needed for a good energy party
Easy to move energy Abundance without limits
Methods to transform bound energy into something
useful The name of the game has been oil!
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How much energy is bound in oil?
1 litre of oil contain 10 kWh What can you do
with 10 kWh? You can move 10 small cars to the
top of the Eiffel tower!
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The oil in the North Sea is limited
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Perfect object for oil
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Use of energy in Sweden during 100 years
TWh
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(No Transcript)
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Worlds remaining oil reserves
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Reality from the speech of the silent elephants
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Reported Giant Elephants from 1870 till 2000
Number Per 5 year
About 70 of all oil we have discovered can be
found in 371 giant oilfields, the giant
elephants.
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Cumulative Discovery according to BP statistical
review.
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Discovery per year from 1950 till 2000( BP
statistical review )
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OPECs numbers according to Oil Gas journal.
Production in the OPEC countries in the table is
6 Gb/year
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Production of oil in Kuwait
Greater Burgan
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Reported reserves in Kuwait
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Middle East
Difference between the Uppsala model and
BP Saudi Arabia 194,4 (261.8) Gb Iraq 95.0
(112,5) Gb Iran 70,5 (89,7) Gb Kuwait 55,4 (96,5)
Gb N. Zone 8,45 Abu Dubai 59,4 (97,8) Gb Oman
6,74 (5,5) Gb Qatar 5,73 (5,5) Gb Yemen 1,36
(4,0) Gb Syria 2,01 (2,8) Gb Sum 499 (676.1)
Gb It looks as 177 Gb oil is missing
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Production and reserves Oil Gas J. 2001-12-31
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Back dating

• An oilfield contains what it contains because it
  was filled in the geological past
• An oilfield is found by the first successful
  borehole drilled into it.
• All the oil, ever to be produced from it under
  any circumstance, is logically attributable to
  the original discovery
• Date is as important as Amount

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Prudhoe Bay - Reported Reserves
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Predicting the future
231 production wells
1988
1977
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Realety and Illusion
x
Realety
Prediction
Inflexion due to falling discovery
OPEC quota war
Illusion
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Discovery per year from 1950 till 2000
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Worlds remaining oil reserves
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Colin Campbell
"Understanding depletion is simple. Think of an
Irish pub. The glass starts full and ends empty.
There are only so many more drinks to closing
time. Its the same with oil. We have to find the
bar before we can drink whats in it."
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Published Estimates of Ultimate recovery
Average of 65 estimates is 1.93 Tb
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USA oil and USGS 2000
USGS numbers for USA year 2025 F95 345 Gb Mean
362 Gb F5 383 Gb Dvs mean /- 5
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World R/P for oil and gas
R/P is claiming that current reserves of 1000 Gb
could support current production at 27 Gb/a for
37 years. R/P is a poor indicator and should be
ignored.
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World - conventional oil Ultimate
1900 Gb To-date 2002 927 Gb
Peak Discovery 1964
Peak Discovery
High Prices Curb Demand
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ASPO at Uppsala The world oil depletion curve
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H.J. Longwell, Exxon MobilWorld Energy Vol 5,
Nr3, 2002
 In closing, let me say that I believe industry
has the resources to meet future global energy
demand for some considerable time. I base this in
part on my belief that technological advances
will continue in exploration, development and
production, just as they have in the past. This
is the one major component in our success
equation that we can control, and we must be
relentless in its pursuit. Such advances will be
critical to meeting energy demand after 2010. I
think it is well within the realm of possibility
that many of our future discoveries will come not
just from new frontier areas, but also from
proven areas, as evolving technology improves our
ability to virtually "see" and distinguish the
oil and gas before we drill.
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Norway crude oil production of all fields
including 2001 (52 Felder)
History
Forecast
Sm3
6 Gb 3 Gb
17 Gb
Monthly data 1/99 - 10/02
?
Source NPD
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Professor Kenneth S DeffeyesPrincton University,
USAHubberts Peak, The Impending World Oil
Shortage
I have some advice for my granddaughter Emma, age
two Learn something about thermodynamics. By
the time you reach retirement age the world
production of oil, the kind thats fun to drill
for, will be down to a fifth of its present
size. Get into renewable energy.
http//www.bloomberg.com/wealth/0902/sep.ft.crude.
pdf
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If 100 gb of oil is squeezed into one bottle of
Champagne we have spent 9 bottles.
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No party without Champagne
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Nine in the refrigerator and two to find
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The nine in the refrigerator
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There is one bottle in Iraq and if we pore the
content into four glasses each glass represent
the global consumption per year.
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From the beginning the nature had put two bottles
in the ground in USA. They have just started to
sip on the last glass.
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If we have 11 bottles to empty and it takes 4
years to empty one everyone should be aware of
the the party is over and that we need to do
something!!!!
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Aristoteles, 340 f.kr.The Earth is
round!ASPO 2003, We will have a peak and
decline and we have to fight against the flat
earth people.