Bird Data and Ecosystem Research Trends on the West Antarctic Peninsula

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Bird Data and Ecosystem Research Trends on the
West Antarctic Peninsula
IWC Nov. 5, 2005 CCPO

• Erik Chapman
• CCPO
• Old Dominion University

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Outline

• Types of data available
• Trends in analyses (Southern Ocean and west
  Antarctic Peninsula)
• Proposed future work (my dissertation!)

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Types of Data Available

• Survey data
• Population demographics and vital rates
• Diet sample data (index of prey field)
• Foraging studies (satellite and radio-telemetry)
• Energetics studies
• Excavation of abandoned colonies

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Types of Data Available

• Survey data
• Presence/absence and habitat associations
  (seasonal changes)
• Population demographics and vital rates
• Diet sample data (index of prey field)
• Foraging studies (satellite and radio-telemetry)
• Energetics studies
• Excavation of abandoned colonies

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Types of Data Available

• Survey data
• Population demographics and vital rates
• Time-series for population size, breeding
  success, chick growth and fledging weights etc.
• Diet sample data (index of prey field)
• Foraging studies (satellite and radio-telemetry)
• Energetics studies
• Excavation of abandoned colonies

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Smith et al. 1999
Chinstrap penguins Palmer Station
Adelie penguins Palmer Station
Adelie penguins -Ross Sea
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Types of Data Available

• Survey data
• Population demographics and vital rates
• Diet sample data (index of prey field)
• Species composition (relative abundance)
• Size-class frequency
• Foraging studies (satellite and radio-telemetry)
• Energetics studies
• Excavation of abandoned colonies

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Diet Sample
Ainley et al. 2003
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Types of Data Available

• Survey data
• Population demographics and vital rates
• Diet sample data (index of prey field)
• Foraging studies (satellite and radio-telemetry)
• Foraging location, duration
• Activity budget
• Seasonal habitat associations
• Energetics studies
• Excavation of abandoned colonies

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Lynnes et al. 2002
2000
Chappell et al. 1993
2001
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Types of Data Available

• Survey data
• Population demographics and vital rates
• Diet sample data (index of prey field)
• Foraging studies (satellite and radio-telemetry)
• Energetics studies
• Metabolic rates (facilitating modeling)
• Excavation of abandoned colonies

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Chappell et al., 1993
Fraction of time spent swimming
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Types of Data Available

• Survey data
• Population demographics and vital rates
• Diet sample data (index of prey field)
• Foraging studies (satellite and radio-telemetry)
• Energetics studies
• Excavation of abandoned colonies
• Prey composition (size/age class)
• Historical dynamic biogeography

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McDaniel and Emslie 2002
Baroni and Orombelli 1994
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Analysis Trends

• Growing interest in the influence of Climate on
  Ecosystems.
• Interest in climate variability causing regime
  change among multiple stable-states.
• The Southern Ocean is an excellent model where
  ENSO, AAO are known to influence sst, sea-ice and
  key ecosystem components.

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Turner 2004
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High SOI
Low SOI
Moderate SOI
Kwok and Comiso 2002
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Analysis Trends (continued)

• Demographics and foraging behavior of seabirds
  are being used to index consequences of
  environmental variability.
• Long-term data-sets and availability of
  atmospheric variability indices facilitate
  time-series analyses.

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Examples of Papers
Jenouvrier et al. 2005 Evidence of a shift in
cyclicity of Antarctic seabird dynamics linked to
climate. Proceedings of the Royal Society
B. Ainley et al. 2005 Decadal-scale changes in
the climate and biota of the Pacific sector of
the Southern Ocean, 1950s to the 1990s. Antarctic
Science. Weimerskirch et al. 2003 Trends in
bird and seal populations as indicators of a
system shift in the Southern Ocean. Antarctic
Science Barbraud and Weimerskirch 2001 Emperor
penguins and climate change. Nature. Wilson et
al. 2001 Adelie penguin population change in
the pacific sector of Antarctica relation
to Sea-ice and the ACC. MEPS.
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Analysis Trends (continued)

• Underlying mechanisms behind patterns are being
  investigated.

Fraser and Hofmann 2003, A predators perspective
on causal links between climate change, physical
forcing and ecosystem response. MEPS
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Dissertation Proposal

• A Study of Physical and Biological Factors
  Determining West Antarctic Peninsula Adelie
  Penguin Population Dynamics
• Data Analysis
• Linking prey field to physical features (sea-ice)
• Modeling Study
• Foraging, chick growth and a population matrix
  simulations

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Environmental Context

• Warming (0.56 ºC decade-1 Turner et al., 2005)
• Maximum sea-ice coverage becoming less (15,000
  km2 year -1 Kwok and Comiso, 2002)
• Timing of sea-ice advance and retreat changing
  (duration down 0.3 days year -1 Smith et al.,
  2002)
• Krill populations declining (50 decline since
  1976 Atkinson et al., 2004 )
• Antarctic silverfish populations declining
  (Adelie diets, net tows Fraser, personal
  communciation)
• Anvers Island Adelie populations down (40 since
  1974 Fraser and Patterson, 1997)
• Avian Island Adelie populations up (100 since
  1974 Woehler, 2993 Fraser, unpublished data)

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Atmospheric temperature
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
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Atmospheric temperature
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
Productivity
1
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
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Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
Productivity
1
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
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Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
Productivity
1
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model. Data a) Satellite tag
foraging data from ANV, AVI. b) Foraging
energetics from ANV.
Chick growth
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Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
30
Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
Productivity
1
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model. Data a) Satellite tag
foraging data from ANV, AVI. b) Foraging
energetics from ANV.
Chick growth
3
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
Chick growth modeling. Data a) Field derived
feeding rate/caloric content/diet composition. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
4
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Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation. Data a) Historical
Satellite Derived SIZ characteristics. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
Productivity
1
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model. Data a) Satellite tag
foraging data from ANV, AVI. b) Foraging
energetics from ANV.
Chick growth
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Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
Leslie Matrix Simulatios. Data a) Variability
in age-specific vital rates derived from research
at ANV and other locations. b) Fledge weight and
survivorship data at ANV.
Chick growth modeling. Data a) Field derived
feeding rate/caloric content/diet composition. b)
Historical diet sample data at ANV, AVI.
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Simulations

• Historical conditions at Anvers Island
• Current conditions at Anvers Island and Avian
  Island
• Future climate scenarios

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CHICK GROWTH MODEL SCHEMATIC
Adult foraging model
Ingestion, Penguin chick
Assimilated mass
Field collected data
Estimated from literature
- Respiratory loss
Net productivity
Chick growth
Fledge
Death
Recruitment
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ADULT FORAGING MODEL SCHEMATIC
Prey Field
Ingestion, Penguin adult
- Ingestion, chick
Chick Growth Model
Ingested food beyond Individual needs
Assimilated mass
- Respiratory losses ( swimming resting
foraging)
Telemetry Data
Adult growth ( or -)
Estimate from literature
Survivorship (reproductive cost)
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Smith et al. 1999
Chinstrap penguins Palmer Station
Adelie penguins Palmer Station
Adelie penguins -Ross Sea
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Hunt et al. 1992, South Georgia
Water mass
Total Seabird Observations
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Sources of data..

• Manyits a mess. Youre on your own!

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Survey Data Seasonal habitat associations
Crabeater seal
Snow petrel
Southern fulmar