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PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University

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Title: PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University


1
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
2
Global Climate Change How We Got Here, and
What Do We Do Now?
  • Eugene S. Takle
  • Professor of Atmospheric Science
  • Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
  • Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
  • Department of Agronomy
  • Iowa State University
  • Ames, Iowa 50011
  • gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Westminster Presbyterian Church Des Moines 22
January 2008
3
Outline
  • Scientific basis for climate change
  • Climate change and the scientific process
  • Moving beyond the science to take action
  • What do we do now?
  • Mitigation
  • Adaptation
  • Summary

4
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5
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
6
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7
IPCC Third Assessment Report
8
Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm (2100)
9
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
10
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
11
Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
12
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14
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15
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16
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19
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
20
El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in
2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
21
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23
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
24
http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
25
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
26
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
27
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
28
Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
29
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30
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
31
Skeptics Arguments
  • It's the sun 9.0
  • Climate's changed before 7.8
  • There is no consensus 6.4
  • Surface temp is unreliable 5.8
  • Models are unreliable 4.5
  • Al Gore got it wrong 4.4
  • Ice age predicted in the 70's 4.0
  • CO2 lags temperature 3.7
  • Mars is warming 3.3
  • Global warming is good 3.3

32
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
33
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
34
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
35
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
36
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
37
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
38
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
39
Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean
temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000
(Adapted from Folland et al. 2001).
40
Warming Hole
DTmax (JJA)
C
Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J.
Gutowski, Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal,
2004 Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming
climate introduces a warming hole. Geophys.
Res. Lett.31, L17109, doi10.1029/2004GL020528.
41
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al., 2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
42
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western
US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
43
Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western
US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
Colorado River Compact established, 1922
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
44
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  • Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological
    Organization (UN) and the United Nations
    Environmental Programme
  • IPCC purpose is to evaluate the state of climate
    science as a basis for informed
    policy action, primarily on
    the basis of peer-reviewed
    and published scientific literature

45
NAS Assessment of IPCC Conclusions
  • Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earths
    atmosphere as a result of human activities,
    causing surface air temperatures to rise and
    sub-surface ocean temperatures to rise
  • The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed
    warming of the last 50 years is likely to have
    been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
    concentrations accurately reflects the
    current thinking of the scientific community
    on this issue

National Academy of Sciences Committee on the
Science of Climate Change, 2001 Climate change
science An analysis of some key questions.
National Academy Press.
46
IPCC AR4 (2007) Process
  • IPCC does not conduct its own research. It
    simply organizes teams of scientists to evaluate
    the current state of scientific knowledge
  • People from over 130 countries contributed to the
    IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6
    years.
  • These people included more than
    2500 scientific expert reviewers,
    more than 850 contributing authors,
    and more than 450 lead authors

47
IPCC AR4 Conclusions
  • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
  • Most of (gt50 of) the observed increase in
    globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th
    century is very likely (confidence level gt90)
    due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
    (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.
  • Hotter temperatures and rises in sea level "would
    continue for centuries" even if greenhouse gas
    levels are stabilized, although the likely
    amount of temperature and sea level rise
    varies greatly depending on the fossil
    intensity of human activity during the
    next century.

48
IPCC AR4 Conclusions
  • The probability that this is caused by natural
    climatic processes alone is less than 5.
  • World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and
    6.4 C (2.0 and 11.5 F) during the 21st century
    and that
  • Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm
    (7.08 to 23.22 in).
  • There is a confidence level gt90 that there will
    be more frequent warm spells, heat waves and
    heavy rainfall.

49
IPCC AR4 Conclusions
  • There is a confidence level gt66 that there will
    be an increase in droughts, tropical cyclones and
    extreme high tides.
  • Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide
    emissions will continue to contribute to warming
    and sea level rise for more than a millennium.
  • Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon
    dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have
    increased markedly as a result of
    human activities since 1750
    and now far exceed pre-
    industrial values over the past 650,000
    years

50
What To Do Now
51
What To Do Now
  • Mitigation
  • Become active politically
  • National level - examine candidate platforms
  • Demand that state and local organizations examine
    carbon emissions
  • Examine personal choices
  • Home energy use
  • Auto type and use
  • Purchase of stuff

52
What To Do Now
  • Mitigation
  • Become active politically
  • National level - examine candidate platforms
  • Demand that state and local organizations examine
    carbon emissions
  • Examine personal choices
  • Home energy use
  • Auto type and use
  • Purchase of stuff
  • Adaptation
  • Stay informed of the best science
    on climate change for the Midwest
  • Encourage public and private
    investment in sustainable and
    resilient practices and infrastructure

53
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
    (proposed to NOAA)

54
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
    (proposed to NOAA)

55
Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the Hadley
Centre global climate model
56
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57
North America Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program Participants
  • Lead agency NSF, with contributions from NOAA
    and DOE
  • R. Arritt, D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa
    State University, USA
  • R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley
    Centre, UK
  • D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada
  • D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National
    Laboratories, USA
  • F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy
  • I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
    Laboratory, USA
  • R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National
    Laboratories, USA
  • L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes,
    NCAR, USA
  • A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of
    Oceanography, USA
  • S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
  • L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa
    Cruz, USA

58
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
    (proposed to NOAA)

59
ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Launched by Vice President Brighton
  • Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
    leadership, but broad campus research
    participation will be emphasized
  • Build on research strengths in regional climate
    modeling, agriculture, water,
    landscapes, engineering

60
How Will New Trends and Variability of Regional
Climate Change Affect
  • Crop horticulture production
  • Soil erosion
  • Conservation practices
  • Water supplies
  • Streamflow
  • Water quality
  • Beef and pork daily gains
  • Livestock breeding success
  • Milk and egg production
  • Crop and livestock pests and pathogens
  • Agricultural tile drainage systems
  • Natural ecosystem species distributions
  • Human health
  • Building designs
  • Recreation opportunities
  • River navigation
  • Roads and bridges

Who will provide authoritative information? How
will it be delivered?
61
What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?
  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
    Program
  • ISU Climate Science Initiative
  • Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
    (proposed to NOAA)

62
Proposed new Midwest
Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
63
Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  • Create seasonal climate forecasts for the Midwest
  • Use ensembles of advanced regional climate models
    interactive web-based decision-making tools,
  • Translate and enhance the latest NOAA climate
    forecast products to maximize economic gains
  • Use high-volume customized delivery and feedback
    through the county level extension service network

64
Summary
  • Climate change of the past 35 years is not
    consistent with natural variations over the last
    400,000 years
  • Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due
    to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed
    over half of the warming of the last 35 years
  • Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
    will have little effect on global warming until
    the latter half of the
    21st century
  • Adaptation strategies should be
    developed for the next 50 years
  • Iowa State University will build on its
    strengths and provide authoritative
    information on climate change and
    climate variability for
    decision-makers
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