PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University

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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
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Global Climate Change How We Got Here, and
What Do We Do Now?

• Eugene S. Takle
• Professor of Atmospheric Science
• Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
• Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
• Department of Agronomy
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Westminster Presbyterian Church Des Moines 22
January 2008
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Outline

• Scientific basis for climate change
• Climate change and the scientific process
• Moving beyond the science to take action
• What do we do now?
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
• Summary

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Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
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IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm (2100)
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in
2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Skeptics Arguments

• It's the sun 9.0
• Climate's changed before 7.8
• There is no consensus 6.4
• Surface temp is unreliable 5.8
• Models are unreliable 4.5
• Al Gore got it wrong 4.4
• Ice age predicted in the 70's 4.0
• CO2 lags temperature 3.7
• Mars is warming 3.3
• Global warming is good 3.3

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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Observed summer (June-July-August) daily mean
temperature changes (K) between 1976-2000
(Adapted from Folland et al. 2001).
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Warming Hole
DTmax (JJA)
C
Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J.
Gutowski, Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal,
2004 Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming
climate introduces a warming hole. Geophys.
Res. Lett.31, L17109, doi10.1029/2004GL020528.
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Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al., 2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
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Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western
US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
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Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western
US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
Colorado River Compact established, 1922
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an
Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316.
no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological
  Organization (UN) and the United Nations
  Environmental Programme
• IPCC purpose is to evaluate the state of climate
  science as a basis for informed
  policy action, primarily on
  the basis of peer-reviewed
  and published scientific literature

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NAS Assessment of IPCC Conclusions

• Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earths
  atmosphere as a result of human activities,
  causing surface air temperatures to rise and
  sub-surface ocean temperatures to rise
• The IPCCs conclusion that most of the observed
  warming of the last 50 years is likely to have
  been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
  concentrations accurately reflects the
  current thinking of the scientific community
  on this issue

National Academy of Sciences Committee on the
Science of Climate Change, 2001 Climate change
science An analysis of some key questions.
National Academy Press.
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IPCC AR4 (2007) Process

• IPCC does not conduct its own research. It
  simply organizes teams of scientists to evaluate
  the current state of scientific knowledge
• People from over 130 countries contributed to the
  IPCC Fourth Assessment Report over the previous 6
  years.
• These people included more than
  2500 scientific expert reviewers,
  more than 850 contributing authors,
  and more than 450 lead authors

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IPCC AR4 Conclusions

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
• Most of (gt50 of) the observed increase in
  globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th
  century is very likely (confidence level gt90)
  due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
  (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.
• Hotter temperatures and rises in sea level "would
  continue for centuries" even if greenhouse gas
  levels are stabilized, although the likely
  amount of temperature and sea level rise
  varies greatly depending on the fossil
  intensity of human activity during the
  next century.

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IPCC AR4 Conclusions

• The probability that this is caused by natural
  climatic processes alone is less than 5.
• World temperatures could rise by between 1.1 and
  6.4 C (2.0 and 11.5 F) during the 21st century
  and that
• Sea levels will probably rise by 18 to 59 cm
  (7.08 to 23.22 in).
• There is a confidence level gt90 that there will
  be more frequent warm spells, heat waves and
  heavy rainfall.

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IPCC AR4 Conclusions

• There is a confidence level gt66 that there will
  be an increase in droughts, tropical cyclones and
  extreme high tides.
• Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide
  emissions will continue to contribute to warming
  and sea level rise for more than a millennium.
• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon
  dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have
  increased markedly as a result of
  human activities since 1750
  and now far exceed pre-
  industrial values over the past 650,000
  years

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What To Do Now
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What To Do Now

• Mitigation
• Become active politically
• National level - examine candidate platforms
• Demand that state and local organizations examine
  carbon emissions
• Examine personal choices
• Home energy use
• Auto type and use
• Purchase of stuff

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What To Do Now

• Mitigation
• Become active politically
• National level - examine candidate platforms
• Demand that state and local organizations examine
  carbon emissions
• Examine personal choices
• Home energy use
• Auto type and use
• Purchase of stuff
• Adaptation
• Stay informed of the best science
  on climate change for the Midwest
• Encourage public and private
  investment in sustainable and
  resilient practices and infrastructure

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What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• ISU Climate Science Initiative
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)

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What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• ISU Climate Science Initiative
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)

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Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the Hadley
Centre global climate model
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North America Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program Participants

• Lead agency NSF, with contributions from NOAA
  and DOE
• R. Arritt, D. Flory, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, Iowa
  State University, USA
• R. Jones, E. Buonomo, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley
  Centre, UK
• D. Caya, S. Biner, OURANOS, Canada
• D. Bader, P. Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National
  Laboratories, USA
• F. Giorgi, ICTP, Italy
• I. Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
  Laboratory, USA
• R. Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National
  Laboratories, USA
• L. Mearns, D. Middleton, D. Nychka, S. McInnes,
  NCAR, USA
• A. Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of
  Oceanography, USA
• S. Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
• L. Sloan, M. Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa
  Cruz, USA

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What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• ISU Climate Science Initiative
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)

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ISU Climate Science Initiative

• Launched by Vice President Brighton
• Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
  leadership, but broad campus research
  participation will be emphasized
• Build on research strengths in regional climate
  modeling, agriculture, water,
  landscapes, engineering

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How Will New Trends and Variability of Regional
Climate Change Affect

• Crop horticulture production
• Soil erosion
• Conservation practices
• Water supplies
• Streamflow
• Water quality
• Beef and pork daily gains
• Livestock breeding success
• Milk and egg production
• Crop and livestock pests and pathogens

• Agricultural tile drainage systems
• Natural ecosystem species distributions
• Human health
• Building designs
• Recreation opportunities
• River navigation
• Roads and bridges

Who will provide authoritative information? How
will it be delivered?
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What To Do NowWhat are your public universities
doing?

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• ISU Climate Science Initiative
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)

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Proposed new Midwest
Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
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Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

• Create seasonal climate forecasts for the Midwest
• Use ensembles of advanced regional climate models
  interactive web-based decision-making tools,
• Translate and enhance the latest NOAA climate
  forecast products to maximize economic gains
• Use high-volume customized delivery and feedback
  through the county level extension service network

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Summary

• Climate change of the past 35 years is not
  consistent with natural variations over the last
  400,000 years
• Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due
  to anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed
  over half of the warming of the last 35 years
• Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
  will have little effect on global warming until
  the latter half of the
  21st century
• Adaptation strategies should be
  developed for the next 50 years
• Iowa State University will build on its
  strengths and provide authoritative
  information on climate change and
  climate variability for
  decision-makers