PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and Programs at Iowa State University

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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
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Global Climate Change How Did We Get Here?
What Do We Do Now?

• Eugene S. Takle
• Professor of Atmospheric Science
• Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
• Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
• Department of Agronomy
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

Focus the Nation Forum Iowa State University 31
January 2008
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Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
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IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm (2100)
January 2008 385 ppm
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
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Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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What Do We Do Now?

• Serve as a model for energy efficiency and
  minimal impact on global climate change
• President Geoffroys Advisory Committee
• Conduct research on both mitigation of and
  adaptation to climate change

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What Do We Do Now?President's Advisory Committee
on Energy Conservation and Global Climate Change

• Conduct a full-scale university energy audit that
  includes a review of ISU's electrical, heating,
  cooling and transportation systems. The audit
  will provide a baseline for measuring progress.
• Develop plans for reducing energy use in each of
  the audited areas.
• Develop energy conservation and climate change
  guidelines for all new construction and major
  renovation projects.
• Ensure that students are well-informed about
  alternate energy sources, energy conservation and
  global climate change issues.

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What Do We Do Now?President's Advisory Committee
on Energy Conservation and Global Climate Change

• Chris Ahoy
• Floyd Barwig
• Joseph Fuller
• Devin Hartman
• Tahira Hira
• Elizabeth Hoffman
• George Kraus
• Mark Kushner

• Warren Madden
• Jeri Neal
• Brian Phillips
• Colleen Rogers
• Pat Schnable
• Kate Schwennsen
• Eugene Takle

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What Do We Do Now?ISUs Research Role

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)
• Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal Forecasts
  (MRED) (proposed to NOAA)
• ISU Climate Science Initiative

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What Do We Do Now?ISUs Research Role

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)
• Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal Forecasts
  (MRED) (proposed to NOAA)
• ISU Climate Science Initiative

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Terrain and land-sea boundaries in the Hadley
Centre global climate model
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Regional climate model
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What Do We Do Now?ISUs Research Role

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)
• Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal Forecasts
  (MRED) (proposed to NOAA)
• ISU Climate Science Initiative

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How Will New Trends and Variability of Regional
Climate Change Affect

• Crop horticulture production
• Soil erosion
• Conservation practices
• Water supplies
• Streamflow
• Water quality
• Beef and pork daily gains
• Livestock breeding success
• Milk and egg production
• Crop and livestock pests and pathogens

• Agricultural tile drainage systems
• Natural ecosystem species distributions
• Human health
• Building designs
• Recreation opportunities
• River navigation
• Roads and bridges

Who will provide authoritative information? How
will it be delivered?
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Proposed new Midwest
Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
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Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)

• Create seasonal climate forecasts for the Midwest
• Use ensembles of advanced regional climate models
  interactive web-based decision-making tools,
• Translate and enhance the latest NOAA climate
  forecast products to maximize economic gains
• Use high-volume customized delivery and feedback
  through the county level extension service network

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What Do We Do Now?ISUs Research Role

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)
• Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal Forecasts
  (MRED) (proposed to NOAA)
• ISU Climate Science Initiative

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What Do We Do Now?ISUs Research Role

• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• Midwest Consortium for Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
  (proposed to NOAA)
• Multi-RCM Downscaling of CFS Seasonal Forecasts
  (MRED) (proposed to NOAA)
• ISU Climate Science Initiative

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ISU Climate Science Initiative

• Launched by Vice President Brighton
• Colleges of Agric, Engr, LAS have taken
  leadership, but broad campus research
  participation will be emphasized
• Build on research strengths in regional climate
  modeling, agriculture, water,
  landscapes, engineering

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Summary

• Climate change of the past 35 years is not
  consistent with natural variations over the last
  400,000 years
• Humans have contributed over half of the warming
  of the last 35 years
• Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed,
  will have little effect on global warming until
  the latter half of the
  21st century
• Adaptation strategies should be
  developed for the next 50 years
• President Geoffroy has a goal to make
  ISU a model of energy conservation
• Iowa State has the capacity to build on
  its strengths and provide
  authoritative climate
  information for decision-makers