ObservationMonitoring Systems' By T' Karl' Briefing on Climate Programs of the National Oceanic and

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Observations and Monitoring Systems
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NOAAs Observation Monitoring Systems
NOAAs Unique Role in Observing Systems for
Climate

• OBSERVATIONS
• Continuous Paleo to space- based
• End-to-end stewardship quality assured,
  managed, and available to all
• Operational use State of Climate reports,
  forecasts, model evaluation/understanding
• Diverse instrument platforms satellites,
  surface weather stations, radiosondes, radar,
  buoys, tide gauges, ships, bathothermograph,
  etc.

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NOAAs Observation Monitoring Systems Where
NOAAs observations and monitoring fits in
1) How has the climate changed or varied?
PHYSICAL
PROCESS
2) How well do we understand the climate system ?
3) What are the causes of climate change and
variability?
4) How can we characterize the impacts of climate
change?
BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES
CLIMATE CHANGE FORCINGS
IMPACTS
CROP
YIELD




COASTAL
HABITAT
FOREST MIGRATION
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NOAAs Observation Monitoring Systems Our
Relation to CCRI Goals

• 1. Enhance observation and monitoring systems
  to support scientific and trend analyses
• Observations on crucial measurements where none
  exist
• Monitoring systems for useful long-term trends
• Interpret pattern of climate variability, e.g.,
  ENSO
• Link and add value to existing systems
• 2. Improve decision making and decision support
  tools
• Provision of climate data sets
• Improved indicators for assessing vulnerability
  to climate variability and change in various
  sectors, e.g., Ag.
• 3. Enhance exploratory research
• A novel approach for future analyses and new
  global observing techniques

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• NOAAs Observation Monitoring SystemsScope of
  NOAAs Observations and Characteristics

Operational Space Based Systems Supporting -
Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite (POES) - Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite (GOES) - Satellite
Research and Applications - Satellite Product
Processing and Distribution Future Spaced Based
Systems Supporting - National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS) - NPOESS Preparatory Project
Coastal Programs Supporting - Coastal Data
Development - Tide and Current Data - Shoreline
Mapping
Ocean Observations Directly Related - Ocean
Observing System Reference Data Sets and
Monitoring Directly Related/USGCRP - Climate
Data and Information - Climate Change Data and
Detection - Climate Science Services Land-Based
Observations Portions Directly Related -
Climate Reference Network - Cooperative
Observer Network - Automated Surface Observing
System - Upper Air Observations Data Archives
Mostly Supporting - Archive, Access, and Ingest
- Climate Database Modernization - Regional
Climate Centers
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Ocean Observations

• The Ocean Component
• Mission Build and sustain a global climate
  observing system that will respond to the
  long-term observational requirements of the
  operational forecast centers, international
  research programs, and major scientific
  assessments.

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Ocean Observations
Define an Initial System that will accomplish
the deliverables

• Initial system design
• In place by research programs
• Years of international planning
• National Ocean Partnership Program
• Joint WMO/IOC Tech Comm. for Oceanography and
  Marine Meteorology (JCOMM)

Observations for El Niño Research and Monitoring
International plan for carbon not yet available
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Ocean Observations
Initial System Design. It will Evolve. Now 40
complete.
Sea Surface Temperature, Height, and Vector Wind
from Space
Tide Gauge Network 45 complete 3x3 Argo
Profiling Float Array 15 complete 5x5
Surface Drifting Buoy Array 35 complete
Moored Buoy Existing Planned Ocean Reference
Station Existing Planned High Resolution XBT
and Flux Line Existing Planned Frequently
Repeated XBT Line Existing Planned Carbon
Inventory Deep Ocean Line Survey 1.5
lines/year, 50 funded
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Ocean Observations

• Set Performance Measures -- Deliverables
• The Ocean Component Product Lines
• Document long term trends in sea level change
• Document ocean carbon sources and sinks
  (already covered)
• Document heat uptake and release by the ocean
• Monitor for abrupt changes in Thermohaline
  Circulation

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Ocean Observations

• Document Long Term Trends in Sea Level Change
• Deliver routine annual reports of variations and
  trends in mean sea level at climate reference
  stations, and absolute sea level change for the
  global ocean.

Today -- approximately every 5-10 years,
non-standard, research mode. 2006 -- 16
reference stations in the USA. 2008 -- 62
reference stations world-wide. --
absolute global sea level change.
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Ocean Observations
Document Heat Uptake and Release by the Ocean

• Deliver global analyses of mean sea surface
  temperature, temperature anomaly,
  temperature at depth, seasonal change,
  and ocean-atmosphere fluxes.

Today
0.5?C Accuracy

• SST anomaly at 0.5?C accuracy --
• Global Tropics, PDO NAO regions,
• High latitude formation regions.
• Global SST at 0.4?C accuracy.
• Temperature 1-1000m at 0.5 ?C accuracy.
• At 29 reference stations
• Flux to 10 W/m2, and temperature
• to 1000m at 0.1?C accuracy.

1.0?C Accuracy
2006
0.5?C Accuracy

• SST anomaly at 0.5?C accuracy --
• TAO/TRITON region.
• Global SST at 0.7?C accuracy.
• Temperature 1-450m at 0.5 ?C accuracy.
• At 2 reference stations
• Flux to 10 W/m2, and temperature
• to 1000m at 0.1?C accuracy.

1.0?C Accuracy
2008
0.5?C Accuracy

• SST anomaly at 0.5?C accuracy --
• Tropical Pacific, PDO region, PIRATA
• region.
• Global SST at 0.7?C accuracy.
• Temperature 1-450m at 0.5 ?C accuracy.
• At 14 reference stations
• Flux to 10 W/m2, and temperature
• to 1000m at 0.1?C accuracy.

0.6?C Accuracy
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Ocean Observations

• Monitor for Abrupt Changes in Thermohaline
  Circulation

Today -- Monitoring the Florida Current and
Denmark Strait
2006 -- Atlantic annual heat transport to 0.5P
Watt. Sinking regions 5-year average
temperature and salinity to 0.05?C and 0.05PSU.
2008 -- Global annual heat transport to 0.3P
Watt. Sinking regions annual average
temperature and salinity to 0.03?C and 0.03PSU.
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Ocean Observations
10-year implementation timeline
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Relevance to USGCRP/CCRI GoalsOcean Observations

• Enhance Science/Science Quality
• Extension of proven building blocks
• Founded on international planning
• Continually reviewed by the Climate Observing
  System Council (standing advisory
• panel of scientists and data users)
• Improved Decision Making
• Reducing uncertainties begins with observation
• Designed to be sustained over the long-term
• Designed for climate quality
• Designed for discovering and monitoring global
  climate patterns
• Track Record/Metrics
• Designed to satisfy long term observational
  requirements of CLIVAR and the Carbon
• Cycle Science Program
• Reviewed and endorsed by the US GOOS Steering
  Committee
• Deliverables respond to the requirements of
  NOAAs Climate Services
• Milestones set for phased implementation.
  Completion target 2008.

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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
KEY METRIC
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
KEY METRIC
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Global
Northern Hemisphere
NOAA Paleo Climate data and instrumental data
sets provide critical information
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Developing a time history of changes and
variations requires enormous investment of time
and talent
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Payoff in Reference Data Set Development
(Down to 3000 meters)
Climate models with observed changes in
greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, volcanic
aerosols, and solar irradiance.
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Anomalies
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Challenges in Constructing Long-Term Data Sets
from Satellite Observations
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Blended Temperature AnomaliesSatellite and
Surface-based Measurements
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
NOAA Scientific Data Stewardship
New approach for real time management of climate
data
Climate Data Records
Network Performance Monitoring
Observations Metadata
Climate Quality Products
Reprocessing and Reanalyses
Archives
Analyses and QC
Feedbacks
Climate Analyses
Stewardship Teams

• Benefits
• Rapid feedback to observing system
• Data prepared for prediction and analysis
• Model-data synthesis on operational basis
• Simple straight forward data access

• End-to-end accountability of data
• Spatial and temporal sampling
• Time dependent biases
• Metadata
• Reprocessing for CDRs
• Enable and facilitate future research
• Safeguard interests of future generations

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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring

• 43 always reported
• 31 never reported

Number of Monthly Reports from GCOS Surface
Network, 8/01-1/02
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Observing System Monitoring for Time-Dependent
Biases
Scientific Data Stewardship
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Observing System Monitoring for Time-Dependent
Biases

• New tools Detection of changes in time of
  observation at Coop Stations
• Detection method based on difference between
  the median weekly inter- diurnal temperature
  differences for maximum and minimum temperature
• 80 confidence of detection in 6 weeks

Weeks After Observation
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring
Annual State of the Climate Report(Seasonal and
Monthly Updates)
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Reference Data Sets and Monitoring Improved
Indicators for Assessing Climate Variability
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Relevance to USGCRP/CCRI Goals Reference Data
Sets and Monitoring

• Enhance Science/Science Quality
• Reference Data Sets for monitoring and
  understanding climate
• Measure of quality is demonstrable through data
  set use in major Assessments, e.g.,
• IPCC, National Assessment, Arctic Assessment,
  Ozone Assessments, etc.
• Numerous Platinum standard data sets ---
  COADS, GHCN, Reynolds/Smith, Levitus Ocean
  Climate, GPCP, ISCPP, USHCN, etc.
• Data Set development guided by Science Advisory
  Panels GCOS, IPCC, WCRP CLIVAR

• Improve Decision Making
• Data Sets are available through WWW.
• Data Sets used to evaluate models and
  understanding of climate
• Track Record/Metrics
• Setting IPCC world standard example of the
  ability of these programs to deliver
  policy- relevant information
• Data Sets used and referenced tens of thousands
  of times in various papers, articles, etc
• Issues/Gaps
• This is were the investment in observing
  systems pay off
• Scientific data stewardship
  reprocessing/network monitoring-unable to keep up
  with inflow of new data and science
• Operationalization of platinum data sets to
  pursue new science reference data sets

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Land-Based Observations
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Land-Based Observations

• U. S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN)
  Guidelines
• U. S. Benchmark Network for temperature and
  precipitation
• Ten Climate Monitoring Principles
• NRC Report Adequacy of Climate Observing
  Systems (1999)
• Satisfies the requirements of GCOS/UNFCC/SBSTA
• Anchor points for Cooperative U. S. Historical
  Climate
• Network (USHCN)
• Strong Climate Science Research Component
•  
• Long-Term Stability of Observing Site (50
  years)
• Minimal impact from local changes
• Sensors Calibrated to Traceable Standards

Real-time Network Performance Monitoring
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Land-Based Observations
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Land-Based Observations
CONUS Deployment Plan

• 175 stations in CONUS (FY06)
• 41 stations in Alaska (FY06)

• 3 stations in Hawaii (FY05)
• 2 stations (Puerto Rico ,1 and Virgin Islands ,1
  FY04)

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Land-Based Observations
ASOS Sites
Cooperative Sites
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Upper Air Observations
USA Radiosonde Network
NCDC Archives
Alaska
Puerto Rico
Pacific Islands
Hawaii
NCDC Data Volume 242 Gigabytes Data
levels Standard significant pressure levels 6
second data
Parameters measured Wind speed
direction Temperature Relative humidity Pressure
Radiosondes used over the years
Viz (generic) , Viz Omega Viz Accu-Lok ,
Transponder-type Hypsometer, Viz B Vaisala
RS80
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• Relevance to USGCRP/CCRI Goals
• Land-Based Observations
• Enhance Science/Science Quality
• Many thousands of scientific articles have been
  written using these observations.
• First network ever to completely follow
  NRC(1999) guidelines
• Networks designed and operated with
  considerable community input, e.g., NRC, AMS Town
  Meetings, etc.
• Improve Decision Making
• All these observing systems are fundamental to
  any decision related to climate Modernization of
  Coop Observing Network
• Track Record/Metrics
• CRN has a set of performance standards directly
  related to monitoring national trends of
  temperature and precipitation
• Cooperative observing network in existence
  since 1890s
• Upper Air data back to 1940s
• ASOS only network to routinely measure surface
  synoptic suite of state variables
• Issues/Gaps
• Enhancement of CRN to monitor regional climate
  (multi-state) similar to National trends
• Upgrade of ASOS instrumentation

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Data Archives
DATA USERS
THE CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM DATA/INFORMATION
TYPES OF DATA ARCHIVED

• Original manuscripts
• Publications
• Autographic charts rolls
• Magnetic tape 8mm, 3480, 3590

• Electronically
• Punched paper tapes
• Analyzed charts
• Optical disks
• Paper copies

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Data ArchivesData Received from Numerous
Observing Systems
Forecast Warning Analysis NWS Coop Observers
Hourly Airways NCEP Charts Ship Reports
Rocketsonde Radiosonde Storm Data NEXRAD
Satellite Aircraft Profiler ASOS CRN
Bottle (OSD) High Resolution Conductivity/Temperat
ure/Depth (HCTD) Mechanical Bathythermograph
(MBT) Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) Fixed
Platform (e.g., TAO, TRITON, PIRATA) Drifting
Buoys Profile Float (PFLOAT P-ALACE,SOLO,APEX)
Expendable Conductivity/Temperature/Depth
(XCTD) Towed Conductivity/Temperature/Depth
(UOR) Autonomous Pinniped Bathythermograph (APB)
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Data Archives Performance Metrics
Time to Get Data in Archive (days) vs. Archive
Growth (TB)Networks NEXRAD, GOES, POES, ASOS,
COOP
Performance MeasureTime to Deliver Data from
Archive to user (days) vs. Orders
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Data Archives
NON-DIGITAL DATA ARCHIVE
Manuscript / Autograph 200 Million Pages -
37,878 Miles (1.5 times around the earth) in
process of being imaged and archived in robotics
system

35mm 16mm Film 125,129 Rolls 2,340
Miles (Washington D.C. to Los Angeles)
Microfiche 1.2 Million Pages 114
Miles (Washington D.C. to Philadelphia)
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Data Archives
Initial Payoff

• Climate Database Modernization (NESDIS)
• Goal make non-computer compatible- relevant
  climate data available electronically through
  the web for increased utilization
• Major Accomplishments
• 30 million records imaged and on-line, e.g.,
• Hourly Surface Weather Observations.
• Serial Pubs
• Forts Data (pre 1890s)
• Marine Data, Upper Air Data
• 2 billion key strokes to complete daily
  cooperative database, 1895-1948
• Station metadata imaged and keyed into Oracle
  database Automatically updated
• 40 data imaging and entry tasks support ocean
  and atmosphere data

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• Relevance to USGCRP/CCRI GoalsData Archives
• Enhance Science/Science Quality
• New insights into the past provided by
  previously unavailable data
• Time to access data has increased substantially
• More users with better quality data
• Improve Decision Making
• All these observing systems are fundamental to
  any decision related to climate
• Track Record/Metrics
• Metrics Cycle time observations to user - -
  shows steady improvement
• Metrics Delivery of data to user from archive
  - - shows steady improvement
• Permanently rescued numerous hard copy and
  microfilm data in danger of being permanently
  lost
• Issues/Gaps
• New systems providing so much new data we had
  to resort to a deep archive for some systems.
  (GOES, WSR88-D), or not take on new data (EOS).

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Operational Space Based Systems

• Land
• Vegetation condition
• Snow cover
• Other land characteristics (e,g., albedo,
  skin temperature, soil wetness, insolation)
• Fire locations

NOAA Satellite Products

• Atmosphere
• Temperature soundings
• Moisture soundings
• Winds
• Clouds
• Aerosols
• Earth Radiation Budget
• Precipitation
• Ozone

• Ocean
• Surface temperature
• Ice cover
• Surface winds
• Color
• Sea level

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Atmospheric Products Examples
Operational Space Based Systems
Temperature 500 mb
Winds
Total Water Vapor
Ozone
Rain Rate
Aerosol Optical Thickness
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Ocean Products Examples
Operational Space Based Systems
SST Anomalies
Hot Spots Potential Coral Bleaching
TOPEX Sea Level
QuikSCAT Winds
Sea WIFS Ocean Color
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Land Surface Products Examples
Operational Space Based Systems
Vegetation Health
Snow
Solar Radiation
Fire Risk
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Operational Space Based SystemsCritical for
Inter-Annual to Decadal Monitoring
Global
Most Used
Global Precipitation Anomalies
Global
Global Precipitation Climatology project uses
GOES and POES
NOAA MSU/AMSU (POES)
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Operational Space Based Systems
Key Metric
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Operational Space Based Systems
Key Metric
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Operational Space Based Systems

• Satellite drift limited to 30 minutes/5 years
  for NOAA-16 and succeeding NPOESS will not drift

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Relevance to USGCRP/CCRI goals

• Operational Space Based Systems
• Enhance Science/Science Quality
• IPCC other assessments provide testimony to
  the importance of operational systems
• Numerous NRC evaluations and recommendations
• Thousands of climate-related scientific
  articles

• Improve Decision Making
• Provides fundamental information related to
  climate and climate variability.
• Key to monitoring feedbacks, e.g., clouds,
  water vapor, snow - sea ice major
  uncertainties in understanding
• Track Record/Metrics
• Reliable long time series exist
• Large number of reliable time series used in
  science assessments
• Issues/Gaps
• New window of opportunity for satellite
  overlaps . . . ground
  station/processing/archive support for
  multiple satellites (planned overlap)
• Portion of these programs considered Direct
  Support to CCRI

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Future Space Based Systems
NPOESS Climate Requirements

• NPOESS IORD II (requirements) were augmented for
  climate.
• Specifically the following were added
• -- long-term stability
• -- Stability of the orbital node
• -- Calibration/validation requirements
• -- Aerosols polarimeter to enable
  characterization of the climate forcing by
  aerosols

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Future Space Based Systems
NPOESS Aerosol Sensor

• Impact of aerosols is large, but level of
  scientific understanding is very low
• Multiple wavelengths and angles are required to
  determine direct and indirect forcings due to
  aerosols
• Aerosols Polarimeter Sensor (APS) will provide
  for
• -- improved accuracy on aerosol optical
  depth (equiv. to .25W/m2)
• -- chemical composition of particles by
  size and shape distribution
  measurements

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Future Space Based Systems
National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite System (NPOESS)
METOP
NPOESS
NPOESS

• Provide a national, operational, polar-orbiting
  remote-sensing capability
• Achieve savings by converging DoD and NOAA
  satellite programs
• Incorporate new technologies from NASA
• Encourage international cooperation

Specialized Satellites
NPOESS lite
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Future Space Based Systems

• Primary Contributions to Environmental Data
  Records by Discipline

Ozone - Total Column/Profile
Atmospheric Vertical Moisture Profile
Downward Longwave Radiance (Sfc)
Precipitable Water
Electric Fields
Atmospheric Vertical Temp Profile
Precipitation Type/Rate
Imagery
Electron Density Profile
Pressure (Surface/Profile)
Sea Surface Temperature
Fresh Water Ice
Sea Surface Winds
Geomagnetic Field
Sea Ice Age and Edge Motion
Soil Moisture
Ice Surface Temperature
Sea Surface Height/Topography
Aerosol Optical Thickness
Snow Cover/Depth
Energetic Ions
In-situ Plasma Fluctuations
Aerosol Particle Size
Solar Irradiance
In-situ Plasma Temperature
Supra-Thermal - Auroral Particles
Albedo (Surface)
Auroral Boundary
Surface Wind Stress
Medium Energy Charged Particles
Auroral Imagery
Suspended Matter
Cloud Base Height
Ionospheric Scintillation
Total Auroral Energy Deposition
Cloud Cover/Layers
Land Surface Temperature
Total Longwave Radiance (TOA)
Cloud Effective Particle Size
Littoral Sediment Transport
Total Water Content
Cloud Ice Water Path
Net Heat Flux
Turbidity
Cloud Liquid Water
Net Short Wave Radiance (TOA)
Vegetation Index/Surface Type
Cloud Optical Depth/Transmittance
Neutral Density Profile
Cloud Top Height
Neutral Winds
Cloud Top Pressure
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
Cloud Top Temperature
Ocean Color/Chlorophyll
Currents (Ocean)
Ocean Wave Characteristics
Oceanic
Terrestrial
Space
Atmospheric
Climate
Environmental Data Records (EDRs) with Key
Performance Parameters
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• Relevance to USGCRP/CCRI Goals
• Future Space-Based Systems (NPOESS NPP)
• Enhance Science/Science Quality
• Climate Requirements are integrated into the
  Initial Operation Requirements Document
  (IORD-II)
• NPP is being planned to test end-to-end system
• Guidance from NRC and coordination through CEOS
  and IGOS

• Improve Decision Making
• Next generation of satellites for global
  monitoring
• Global climate decisions require global
  observations
• Track Record/Metrics
• Will improve upon existing operational systems
• Must meet climate requirements
• Issues/Gaps
• Portion of programs direct support to CCRI
• Scientific Data Stewardship ---- use of data
  beyond real-time processing

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Coastal ProgramsSupporting

• Careful maintenance of ties to land reference
  points (vertical datum)
• Real-time quality control

175 Permanent Stations
Relative sea level change at several locations in
the U.S.
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Coastal Programs

• Long-term sea level trends
• Accepted global sea level rise is 2mm per year

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Coastal Programs

• Supporting Coastal Programs

• Shoreline Mapping
• Records effects of storms and sea level rise
  on the coast

• Data readily available to public
• Methods and procedures documented
• Products reviewd before dissemination

• Climate impacts . . . near shore

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• Relevance to USGCRP/CCRI GoalsCoastal Programs
• Enhance Science/Science Quality
• IPCC use for global changes in sea level ----
  considerable use of NOAA data
• In-situ observations of sea-level required for
  satellite cal/val
• Improve Decision Making
• Increase in coastal population requires better
  information on sea- level/tides/currents

• Track Record/Metrics
• Only long-term set of observations on sea-level
• Considerable improvement in recent years
  related to quality control and monitoring
• Issues/Gaps
• Maintenance of existing sites critical with
  metadata
• New sites in remote areas