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Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).

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... CH4 and N2O and other important agents and mechanisms (IPCC ... Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model projections of surface warming (2020-2029 and 2090 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses to climate change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).


1
Schematic framework of anthropogenic climate
change drivers, impacts and responses to climate
change, and their linkages (IPCC, 2007).
2
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
is evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising
global average sea level (IPCC, 2007).
3
Arctic sea ice extent anomalies (1970-2002).
4
Of the 29,000 observational data series from 75
studies, that show significant change in many
physical and biological systems, more than 89
are consistent with the direction of change
expected as a response to warming (IPCC, 2007).
Changes in physical and biological systems and
surface temperature 1970-2004 (IPCC, 2007).
5
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7
(a) Global annual emissions of anthropogenic GHGs
(greenhouse gases) from 1970 to 2004. (b) Share
of different anthropogenic GHGs in total
emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (c) Share
of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG
emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2-eq. (forestry
includes deforestation) (IPCC, 2007).
8
(a) Distribution of regional per capita GHG
emissions according to the population of
different country groupings in 2004. (b)
Distribution of regional GHG emissions per US
over the GDP of different country groupings in
2004. The percentages in the bars in both panels
indicate a regions share in global GHG
emissions. (IPCC, 2007).
9
Relative importance of atmospheric gases and
particulate matter on global warming versus
cooling. Note that methane gas has a greater
greenhouse effect than CO2 gas, but its
anthropogenic productioin and overall atmospheric
level is lower.
10
Anthropogenic concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O)
over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and
since 1750 (inset panels). Measurements are
shown from ice cores (symbols with different
colors for different studies) and atmospheric
samples (red lines). The corresponding radiative
forcings relative to 1750 are shown on the right
hand axes of the large panel (IPCC, 2007). The
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005
exceed by far the natural range over the past
650,000 years.
11
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13
Global average radiative forcing (RF) in 2005
with respect to 1750 for CO2, CH4 and N2O and
other important agents and mechanisms (IPCC,
2007).
14
Comparison of observed continental- and
global-scale changes in surface temperature with
results simulated by climate models using either
natural or both natural and anthropogenic
forcings.
15
Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000 to 2100 in
absence of additional climate policies (IPCC,
2007). SRES - (Special Report on Emission
Scenarios, 2000).
16
Boundary conditions used to produce general
circulation models of past and future climate
change.
17
CLIMAP reconstruction of SST (C) during the Last
Glacial Maximum, 18000 years ago.
18
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model
projections of surface warming (2020-2029 and
2090-2099). IPCC, 2007.
19
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent)
for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999.
Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES
A1B scenario for December to February (left) and
June to August (right). White areas are where
less than 66 of the models agree in the sign of
the change and stippled areas are where more than
90 of the models agree in the sign of the change
(IPCC, 2007).
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21
CO2 emissions and equilibrium temperature
increases (above pre-industrial for a range of
stabilization levels.
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