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The New Political Landscape

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The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing ... The best government is the best politics. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The New Political Landscape


1
The New Political Landscape
  • Al From
  • Founder and Chief Executive Officer
  • Democratic Leadership Council
  • www.ndol.org

2
Americas Political Transformation
OVERVIEW
The New Reality Parties are at Parity
New Economy 0 New Citizenry 0 New Politics
The New Democrat way is the politics of the
future The path to a New Democrat majority
3
Political Parity
The Two Parties Are at Near Equal Strength
4
Parties at Parity
The Reasons
The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate
The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics
in the Industrial Age are Collapsing
A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for
the Information Era
5
The New Electorate
  • PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS
  • Industrial Era Working Class
  • -------------------------------------------------
    ---
  • Information Age Rising Learning Class
  • -------------------------------------------------
    ----

6
Voters Family Incomes 1980 to 2000
7
An Affluent Electorate
Characteristics of 2000 Voters
8
The Clinton Years
9
Family Incomes
Percentage of families making more than 50K per
year.

10
Up The Income Ladder
Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat
11
Colorado Family Incomes
12
Colorado Family Incomes
Percentage of Families Making More than 50 K Per
Year

13
Colorado Financial Status
Compared to Four Years Earlier
14
Educational Attainment
Percentage of voters with a college degree
15
The Vanishing Middle


Democrats By Education Level



1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

No HS

5

3

20

26

31

20

HS Grad


-
12


-
12


-
3

7

16


-
1

Some Col


-
8


-
24


-
15

4

8



-
6

Col Grad


-
18


-
26


-
19


-
2


-
2


-
6

Post Grad


-
8


-
4

1

14

12

8




16
Colorado Educational Attainment
17
Diversity
18
Colorado Diversity
19
The Bellwether California
The Electorate is Becoming More Diverse
20
The Suburbs Rule
In 2000 Democrats Win Cities Republicans Win
Suburbs and Rural Areas
21
The Suburban Swing
Congressional Seats
22
From City to Suburb
Percentage of Statewide Vote
23
Wired Workers
Percentage of Electorate
24
Colorado New Jobs 1991-2000
In Thousands
25
Internet Users
Percentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet
26
Generational Change
In the 2000 Election
Less than 10 percent of the electorate will be
New Deal Era voters. The dominant generations a
re the skeptical generations the Baby
Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.
27
Political Views
28
The Colorado Electorate
Political Views
29
Party Identification
Percentage of Voters
30
The Colorado Electorate
Party Identification
31
An Idea Based Coalition
Tackling Americas New Challenges
The Next Progressive Majority will be built
around ideas and values, not interest groups.
The best government is the best politics. If we
have good ideas that tend to the needs of
ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the
politics will take care of itself.
32
The New Democrat Philosophy
America's Basic Bargain
Opportunity for All Responsibility from All
Community of All
33
Core Principles
  • Opportunity Growth
  • Global Outlook
  • The
  • New Democrat Philosophy
  • Traditional Values
  • Mutual Responsibility
  • Empowering Government

34
Role of Government
What is the Proper Role of the Federal Government?
35
Government and the Economy
What Role Should the Federal Government Play in
the Economy?
36
Message Matters
(All Voters)
If a candidate for President said this, would it
have made you
Much
More/
much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat
less likely, or
much less likely to vote for them for President?
More
Less
Likely
Likely
Top Arguments Ranked by Much more likely
46
I want to
change the tone
79/15
in Washington enough fighting. Instead of

point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to
work together in a
bipartisan manner to get things done for America.
41
78/15
I believe in an America that offers
opportunity for all
, demands
responsibility from all, and fosters a community
of all, with a
government that equips all Americans with the
tools they need for
economic success.
41
70/24
I believe very deeply that you have to be willing
to stand up and fight
no matter what powerful forces might be on the
other side big oil
companies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical
companies, and big
.
tobacco. This election is about the
people v. the powerful
37
Message Matters
Key Voter Categories Much More Likely

Gore

Bush

Bush

Voters

Voters

Swing

Change the Tone

42

51

57

Opportunity for All

45

36

44
People Vs. the Powerful

53

27

32

38
Missing the Mark


How Populism Failed with White Voters


Whites




Gore

Bush


5

49

46

15
-
30K

13

44

50

30
-
50K

24

42

55

50
-
75K

25

40

57

75
-
100K

15

42

55

100K

18

41

56



White Males

White Females




Gore

Bush



Gore

Bush

All


36

60


48

49


5

41

53

7

54

42

15
-
30K

13

37

57

16

49

45

30
-
50K

24

35

60

25

47

49

50
-
75K

25

35

61

25

44

54

75
-
100K

15

34

63

13

52

46

100K

18

34

62

14

48

50

Upper class

4

49

46

4

43

53

U
pr Mid

27

34

60

31

45

54

Middle

47

38

59

49

48

50

Work/Low

22

35

62

17

48

49


39

National
Democratic Margin



All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Men

48

3

-
1

-
10

9

Women

52

8

16

11

5







White Men

48

-
3
-
11

-
24

13


White Women

52

Even

5

-
1

6







White

81

-
1

-
3

-
12

9

Black

10

73

72
81

-
9


Hispanic

7

36

51


27

24


40
The White Vote


A Comparison of 1996 and 2000



National

1996

2000

96/2000

White Men

-
11

-
24

13

White Women

5

-
1

6





East




White Men

6

-
7

13

White Women

21

22

-
1





Midwest




White Men

-
6

-
22

16

White Women

9

5

4





South




White Men

-
28

-
43

15

White Women

-
13

-
30

27





West




White Men

-
12

-
21

9

White Women

8

3

5


41

National
Democratic Margin



All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Married

65

-
1

-
2

-
9

7

No

35


16

19

-
3

Married/Child

31



-
15


No

69



7








Work Woman

31

(29)10

21

19

2

No

69


3

-
8

11







Gun Owner

48


-
13 (37)

-
25

12

No

52


17 (63)

19

-
2







Attend/Church






More / Weekly

14

Regularly


-
27


Weekly

28

(42)
-
12


-
17


Monthly

14



5


Seldom

28



12


Never

14



29








Catholic

26

9

16

3

13

White Cath

25/whites

5

7

-
7

14


42
National

Democratic Margin



All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Abortion






Always Lgl

23

(34)38

(25)48

45

3

Mostly Lgl

33

(29)11

(35)22

20

2

Mostly Illeg

27

(23)
-
30

(25)
-
25

-
40

15

Always Illeg

13

(9)
-
39

(12)
-
45

-
52

7







Liberal

20

54

67

67

----

Moderate

50

16

24

8

16

Conservative

29

-
48

-
51

-
64

13







Democrat

39

67

74

75

-
1

Republican

35

-
63

-
67

-
83

16

Independent

27

6

8

-
2

10







Govt. Should






Do More

43

44 (36)

52 (41)
51

1


Do Less

53

-
22
(55)

-
30 (52)

-
46

16



43
The Swing States
Swing States
GOP Base
Demo Base
44
Democratic Base
Republican Base
In Play



States Dems Won

States Reps Won

States That Split

1992, 1996 2000

1992, 1996 2000
1992, 1996 2000





Electoral Votes

Electoral Votes

Electoral Votes

State

2000

2004

State

20
00

2004

State

2000

2004










California

54

55

Alabama

9

9

Arizona

8

10

Connecticut

8

7

Alaska

3

3

Arkansas

6

6

Delaware

3

3

Idaho

4

4

Colorado

8

9

3
D.C.


3

Indiana

12

11

Florida

25

27

Hawaii

4

4

Kansas

6

6

Georgia

13

15

Illinois

22

21

Mississippi

7

6

Kentucky

8

8

Iowa

7

7

Nebraska

5

5

Louisiana

9

9

Maine

4

4

N. Car

14

15

Missouri

11

11

Maryland

10

10

N. Dakota

3

3

Montana

3

3

Mass

12

12

Oklahoma

8

7

Ne
vada

4

5

Michigan

18

17

S. Car

8

8

N. Hamp

4

4

Minnesota

10

10

S. Dakota

3

3

Ohio

21

20

New Jersey

15

15

Texas

32

34

Tennessee

11

11

N. Mexico

5

5

Utah

5

5

W.Virginia

5

5

New York

33

31

Virginia

13

13




Oregon

7

7

Wyoming

3

3




Penn

23

21







R. Island

4

4







Vermont

3

3







Washington

11

11







Wisconsin

11

10
















Total

267

260

Total

135

135

Total

136

143
































45
Winning the Values Battle
Lessons From the Clinton Victories
Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not
Redistribution Emphasize New Democrat Positions o
n Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare
Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government
Support Family Friendly Policies that Help
Parents Raise Kids Support a Strong National Defe
nse Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues
Like Abortion or Guns
46
Building a New Democratic Majority
A Progressive Coalition for the 21st Century
  • Expand Beyond the Democratic Base
  • Men and Women
  • Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic
  • Urban and Suburban
  • Moderates as well as Liberals
  • Working Class and Rising Learning Class
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