Evolution of waste generation and management in EU Accession Countries

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Evolution of waste generation and management in
EU Accession Countries Zheng Luo, Peter
Eder Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies (IPTS) Seville, Spain http//ipts.jrc.cec
.eu.int http//www.jrc.cec.eu.int
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• An outlook study carried out by ESTO partners
  (REC, TNO VTT) and IPTS (2003-2004)
• The Gothenburg Indicators on waste
• municipal waste collected
• municipal waste landfilled
• municipal waste incinerated
• Industrial waste in enlargement countries waste
  quantity and management in
• coal mining
• coal fired power plants
• iron and steel industry

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• Specific outputs of the study
• Analysis of waste generation and management
• current situation
• future scenarios
• Quantification of waste indicators
• Environmental and employment impacts of waste
  management

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Municipal waste - current situation Waste
collection
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Municipal waste - current situation Waste
composition
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Municipal waste - current situation Waste
management
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Municipal waste - current situation Environmental
impact of current waste management system

• Contribution to GHG emission in CO2 equivalent
• Landfill 26 MT
• Incineration (without energy) 20,000 tons
• Incineration (with energy) -276,000 tons
• Composting 23,000 tons
• Recycling -1.5 MT
• Total 24 MT, 30 of total methane emission and
  2.5 of total GHG emission

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Municipal waste - current situation Employment
assessment of current waste management system

• Employment AC 12, 2000
• Poor statistical data.
• Between 100,000 and 200,000 jobs (half of the
  that of EU 15, 2001).
• Estimation of direct employment 50,000 to 80,000
  jobs, appro. 70 in mixed collection and 16 in
  landfill. Low in recycling and separate
  collection (comparing to EU15).

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Municipal waste future perspective

• Scenarios
• Business As Usual (BAU) GDP growth 3.5,
  population (EUROSTAT), social economic structure,
  national and EU environmental regulations, energy
  policy, etc.
• Emission Trading (ET) EU wide emission trade, 12
  for 2010, 16 for 2015 and 20 for 2020

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Municipal waste future perspective
MSW generation In a short-medium term, the
following are expected to be the key factors
determine MSW in AC-12. (Many factors influencing
the future of MSW, in particular, impacts of
cross sector policies are difficult to assess)
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Municipal waste future perspective scenarios
Waste generation and composition
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Municipal waste future perspective

• MSW management
• Various regulations (at both national and EU
  level) are expected to be the main driving force
  behind the future improvements.
• Qualitatively and quantitatively, relevant
  regulations are evaluated in terms of its impact
  on waste management.
• Standards and technology development will also
  play an essential role.
• Also, the cost of each management option.

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Municipal waste future perspective scenarios
Waste management
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Municipal waste future perspective scenarios
Impact assessment
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Municipal waste future perspective scenarios
Impact assessment
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Coal-mining waste current situation
Waste generation and composition
Waste factor in AC-12
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Coal-mining waste current situation
Waste management Waste rock 100
backfill Tailings on-site storage and landfill
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Coal-mining waste future perspective
Waste generation Trend in coal industry
(1990-1998) reduction of 40 in coal production,
50 in manpower and 30 in number of mines By
2010, coal production will be 20 of that in
1990. Consequently, mining waste will decrease
in 2010 is expected to be 40 of its current
level (2000).
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Coal-mining waste future perspective scenarios
Waste generation decrease
No changes are expected in management practices.
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Waste from coal-fired power plants current
situation
Waste generation total 44 Mt
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Waste from coal-fired power plants current
situation
Waste management overall 87 landfill
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Waste from coal-fired power plants current
situation
Impact on GHG emission relatively small
In CO2(Kt) EQ
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Waste from coal-fired power plants future
perspective
Waste generation declining Many influencing
factors power demand, price of coal and other
fossil fuels, availability of alternative power
production, environmental regulations, including
GHG policies, etc. Management landfill
decreasing and utilisation increasing converging
towards that in EU15.
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Waste from coal-fired power plants future
perspective scenarios
Waste generation decrease
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Waste from coal-fired power plants future
perspective scenarios
Waste management
ET
BAU
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Waste from the iron and steel industry current
situation
Waste generation 12 - 15 Mt in total
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Waste from the iron and steel industry current
situation
Waste management majority to landfill
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Waste from the iron and steel industry current
situation
Impact on GHG emissions relatively small
(in Kt CO2 EQ)
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Waste from the iron and steel industry future
perspective
Waste generation decrease Main influencing
factors political and socio-economic reforms,
world trade and competition on IS products,
technology improvement, environmental
regulations, e.g. GHG emission reduction,
etc. Waste management Landfill decreasing and
utilisation increasing, converging to that in
EU15.
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Waste from the iron and steel industry future
perspective Scenarios
Iron and steel production decrease Waste factor
decrease 2 from 2000-2020
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Waste from the iron and steel industry future
perspective Scenarios
Waste generation decrease
Waste management Majority reuse in 2020 75
No significant differences in the ET scenario
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Industrial scenarios
Summary of waste indicators
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Industrial scenarios
Summary of waste indicators The evolution of
production (three sectors)/consumption (MSW)
waste ratio Current 3.5 In 2020 under BAU 2
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Municipal waste - current situation Waste
composition AC12 details
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Municipal waste - current situation Waste
composition EU15
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Municipal waste - current situation Waste
management AC12 details
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Municipal waste - current situation Waste
management EU15
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Municipal waste - outlook Waste management