The Next Intifada

1
The Next Intifada

• Palestinian Strategy As Outlined in the PA Media
• Presentation by Middle East Newsline, Montreal,
  Canada. www.menewsline.com

2
Abbas Urged to Renew Uprising

• Pressure from Fatah
• Pressure from Hamas
• Pressure from Israel and U.S.

3
Pressure from Fatah

• Poor Showing in Municipal Elections
• Fear of Loss in PLC Elections
• Preparing for Power Struggle

4
Pressure from Hamas

• Emboldened by Election Results
• Building a State Within a State
• Preparing to Take Over Gaza after PLC Elections

5
Pressure from Israel, U.S.

• Demand for PA Security Reform
• Demand for Dismantling of Insurgency Groups
• Demand for Democracy, Fiscal Transparency

6
Fear of Israeli Withdrawal

• PA Cant Impose Order on Gaza
• Israel Could Seal Up Gaza
• U.S. Would Support W. Bank Settlement Blocs

7
Bush Loses Credibility

• President Seen as Close to Sharon
• Concern Over Pro-Democracy Drive
• Unable to Implement PA Security Reforms

8
Scenarios of Bush-Abbas Meeting

• Bush Will Counsel Patience
• President Will Push for PA Security Reform
• Congress Will Block U.S. Aid Package

9
Uprising As Strategy

• Insurgency Would Strengthen PA Position
• Change U.S. Support for Israel
• Wear Down Sharons Resolve

10
Options for Uprising

• Mass Violence Against Israeli Troops
• Attacks on Jewish Settlements
• Provoke Massive Israeli Military Response

11
Immediate Results of Uprising

• Delay PLC Elections and Fatah Loss
• Strengthen Abbas and PA
• Win International Support for Palestinians

12
Conclusion

• Abbas Likely to Delay Uprising
• Fatah, Hamas Prepare for Renewal of War
• Gaza Strip to Serve as Launching Pad

13
Questions?
14
Steve Rodan

• editor_at_menewsline.com

15
http//menewsline.com

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