by Sergey KONONOV Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC Bo

1
(No Transcript)
2
Bonn, Germany 30 October 2006
GHG Data 2006 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
Data for 19902004
by Sergey KONONOVSecretariat of the United
NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)Bonn, Germany
3
Introduction what it is all about?
Annex I Parties (? developed / industrialized
countries) 2006 submission of GHG data (by 15
April)
4
1. GHG trends 19902004and KP targets by country

• Changes vary greatly from 60.4 (Lithuania) to
  72.6 (Turkey)
• EITs mostly below KP targets non-EITs some
  close, some not

5
2. GHG trends 19902004 / 20002004
11.0
Since 2000, GHG emissions increased - in EITs
by 4.1 - in non-EITs by 2.0 - in total by
2.4
3.3
36.8
1) All industrialized countries 3.3 gt total
below 1990 level 2) EITs 36.8 / non-EITs
11.0 gt EITs down, non-EITs up
3) Trends decreasing/increasing emissions where
and why?
6
3. Sectoral changes in GHG emissions (all
countries)
1) Successful emission reductions in industry,
agriculture, waste- from policy actions,
economic restructuring, technology changes
2) Much more modest decrease for energy, only
0.4 - mostly because gt
7
4. Transport challenge for GHG mitigation
Increase by 23.9
Trend continuing emissions growth in
transport both domestic and
8
5. Trends in detail for some countries
selection?
Australia
Canada
Ukraine
Hungary
Liechtenstein
Portugal
Japan
Bulgaria
Monaco
Combined trends for 15 countries
Italy
Spain
Ireland
Greece
European Community
Slovakia
Lithuania
Austria
Germany
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Switzerland
Turkey
Finland
Non-EIT country with greatest GHG decreases
UNFCCC host country
New Zealand
Latvia
New UNFCCC Party (since 2004) first GHG data in
2006
Czech Republic
Belgium
Norway
Belarus
Poland
France
Slovenia
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern
Ireland
Sweden
Estonia
Romania
Russian Federation
Sweden
United States of America
Denmark
EIT country with greatest emissions new data in
2006
Iceland
Industrialized country with greatest GHG
emissions (39 in 2004)
Croatia
9
GHG trend for Germany
Germany non-EIT country with greatest emission
decreases since 1990
2000 2004 GDP 2.5 GHG emissions -0.7
1990 2004 GDP 28.6 GHG emissions -17.2
-17.2
KP target -21
Trends steep declines in 19901994 and 1996
1999 fluctuations after 2000
GDP and population data are from the World Bank
emissions data are from UNFCCC
10
GHG trend for United States of America
US industrialized country with greatest GHG
emissions (39 in 2004)
15.8
2000 2004 GDP 11.7 GHG emissions 1.3
1990 2004 GDP 51.2 GHG emissions 15.8
Trends slower increase after 2000 slower
emission increase compared to GDP
GDP and population data are from the World Bank
emissions data are from UNFCCC
11
GHG trend for European Community
EC a combined trend for 15 member States of the
European Union
-0.6
KP target -8
1990 2004 GDP 33.3 GHG emissions -0.6
2000 2004 GDP 6.6 GHG emissions 2.4
Trends fluctuations with overall decrease some
increase after 2000 (slower than GDP)
GDP and population data are from the IEA
emissions data are from UNFCCC
12
GHG trend for Russian Federation
Russia industrialized country with 2nd greatest
GHG emissions (11 in 2004) also EIT country
with greatest emissions
2000 2004 GDP 26.1 GHG emissions 4.1
1990 2004 GDP -13.1 GHG emissions -32.0
-32.0
KP target 0
Trends decrease until 1998 gt slow emission
increase after 2000 Earlier extrapolation -38.5
in 2003, now real data -32.0 in 2004.
GDP and population data are from the World Bank
emissions data are from UNFCCC
13
GHG trend for Turkey
Turkey new Annex I Party to the Convention
(since 2004) Party with a rapid economic growth

72.6
2000 2004 GDP 16.4 GHG emissions 5.3
1990 2004 GDP 65.9 GHG emissions 72.6
Trends slower increase after 2000 slower
emission decrease than that of GDP
GDP and population data are from the World Bank
emissions data are from UNFCCC
14
Summary

• Good news
• In 2004, emissions from industrialized countries
  were below 1990 level by 3.3
• GHG decrease 19902004 is combined with economic
  growth
• Not so good news
• Emissions from industrialized countries
  increasing since 2000 (EITs and non-EITs)
• Energy-relating emissions growing, mostly due to
  transport emission reductions in transport are
  needed but seem to be especially difficult to
  achieve
• But
• Positive development less and less emissions per
  GDP unit (decoupling continues)
• Also
• The GHG data submitted under the Climate Change
  Convention are a reliable basis for assessing
  progress in emission reductions

15
(No Transcript)