International Policy Approaches to Address the Climate Change Challenge Workshop Scene Set

1
International Policy Approaches to Address the
Climate Change ChallengeWorkshop Scene Set
IPIECA Workshop International Policy Approaches
to Address the Climate Change Challenge Beijing,
25 October 2005

• Dr. Haroon S. Kheshgi
• Corporate Strategic Research
• ExxonMobil Research Engineering Company

2
WELCOME TO WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS FROM THE IPIECA
WORKSHOP ORGANIZING TASK FORCE
Haroon Kheshgi, ExxonMobil (Task Force
Chair) Mark Akhurst, BP Frede Cappelen,
Statoil Bob Greco, API Rick Hyndman, CAPP Arthur
Lee, Chevron (Chairman, IPIECA CCWG) Brigitte
Poot, Total John Shinn, Chevron Bruce Wilcoxon,
ConocoPhilips Tim Stileman, IPIECA (IPIECA CCWG
Project Manager)
3
IPIECA CLIMATE CHANGE WORKING GROUP
(CCWG)Workshop on International Policy
Approaches to Address the Climate Change Challenge
SCENE SET

• This workshop will bring together experts from
  academia, business, governments,and international
  and non-governmental organizations to consider
  the future of international policy architectures
  to manage climate change risk.
• This workshop extends on IPIECAs series of
  focussed workshops and symposia on issues in
  Global Climate Change
• Socio-economic assessment, 1995
• Science of climate change, 1995
• Economics of climate change, 1996
• Scenarios, 1996
• Flexible Mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol, 1998
• Technology assessment, 2000
• ...

4
IPIECA CLIMATE CHANGE WORKING GROUP
(CCWG)Workshop Series

• Long Term Carbon Energy Management Issues
  Approaches
• Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 15-16 October 2001

• Efforts to reconcile societys growing demand
  for energy to alleviate poverty and promote
  economic and social development, while promoting
  efforts to mitigate the risk of climate change,
  pose a fundamental challenge.
• Considerable uncertainty remains concerning
  future levels of emissions and climate response.

Workshop reports freely available online through
IPIECA website www.ipieca.org
5
Climate Science

• Example climate sensitivity uncertainty
• Benchmark range of ?T2x 1.5 to 4.5 C presents
  large range of potential risk
• Probability not established

• Climate Change Poses Serious Risks
• Long-Term Accumulation of CO2
• Deep uncertainties and gaps in our understanding
  in assessing the risk of climate change
• Long-term research programs to address key
  uncertainties and gaps ongoing

6
IPIECA CLIMATE CHANGE WORKING GROUP
(CCWG)Workshop Series v

• Long Term Carbon Energy Management Issues
  Approaches
• Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 15-16 October 2001

• Long-term strategies should consider all
  sources of emissions and all options for
  balancing energy supply and carbon management
  while providing for everyones energy needs.

Workshop reports freely available online through
IPIECA website www.ipieca.org
7
World Carbon Emissions
Annual Emissions by Sector
ExxonMobil Energy Outlook 2003
GtC/yr
Power Generation
Industrial
Share
Transportation
Res/Comm
36
Share
31
32
37
23
20
9
12

• Increasing CO2 emissions
• In power generation transport

8
IPIECA CLIMATE CHANGE WORKING GROUP
(CCWG)Workshop Series

• Carbon Dioxide Capture and Geological Storage
  Contributing to Climate Change Solutions
• Brussels, Belgium, 21-22 October 2003

• CCS of potentially large scope electricity
  generation, fuel conversion
• Technology improvement is an essential component
  in addressing the risk of climate change while
  providing affordable energy.

Transportation and Climate Change Opportunities,
Challenges and Long-term Strategies Baltimore,
Maryland, 12-13 October 2004

• indicates the importance of a portfolio of
  approaches considering the entire transportation
  system extending from the roles that
  transportation plays, to the infrastructures that
  enable it, to the technologies that carry it out.

Workshop reports freely available online through
IPIECA website www.ipieca.org
9
Energy, Development and CO2 Emissions
1999 Per Capita Fossil Carbon Emissions (Bolin
Kheshgi, PNAS, 2001)
Nearly 2 Billion People without access to
affordable modern energy services
10
IPIECA CLIMATE CHANGE WORKING GROUP
(CCWG)Workshop Series

• Energy, Development and Climate Change
  Considerations in Asia and Latin America
• Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 25-26 September 2002
• San Jose, Costa Rica, 2-4 December 2002

• Actions to mitigate the long-term risk of
  climate change must be considered within the
  context of ... development priorities.
• Investment in CDM will, however, be dwarfed by
  the overall investment in energy, especially in
  Asia, through to the end of the Kyoto Protocols
  first commitment period in 2012.
• The development and deployment of technologies
  that result in significant emission reductions
  needs to be a key part of any future strategy,
  but it remains unclear what kind of international
  framework will ensure that this occurs.

Workshop reports freely available online through
IPIECA website www.ipieca.org
11
International Policy Current Considerations

• UNFCCC/Kyoto negotiators must now address 2nd
  commitment period (beyond 2012, by 2005)
• With Kyoto now entered into force
• With major developing countries refusing to
  discuss future targets
• Without participation by USA, Australia
• With no shared sense of a way forward
• Nations implementing Kyoto face serious issues
• Competitive issues from unequal targets and
  emissions allocations (within sectors, across
  sectors, between countries)
• Wealth transfers for international emissions
  trading
• Potential for non-compliance by Kyoto signatories
• Developing countries without emissions
  commitments face the challenge of expanding
  reliable, affordable energy use to meet pressing
  social, economic and environmental needs (with
  1.5-2 billion without access to commercial
  energy)

12
Estimated Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions 1990-2004
2004 Global CO2 Emissions 2004 7.7 GtC
2000 to 2004 Global CO2 Emissions Increase 1
GtC
13
IPIECA Workshop on International Policy
Approaches to Address the Climate Change Challenge

• Economic approaches to reduce emissions
• Socioeconomic and Technological Progress
• Adaptation and Capacity

• Session 1 Key Elements of Climate Change Risk
  Management
• Session 2 Policy Architectures
• Session 3 Issues and Opportunities
• Session 4 Transitions in Policy Architectures

• Proposed policy architectures
• International, regional, sectoral
• How well can these enable the key elements of
  risk management?

• Context of national priorities
• Roles of international agreements
• Opportunities for clean development
• International trade and competitiveness

• Evolution of policy architectures from present
  fragmented state
• Transitions in technology
• Improvements in risk assessment
• Energy trends

14
Session 1 Key Elements of Climate Change Risk
Management

Efforts to reconcile society's growing demand for
energy while promoting efforts to mitigate the
risk of climate change pose a fundamental
challenge. Currently, there is no simple
solution. Key elements of a risk management
approach to climate change include economic
approaches to reducing emissions, pursuit of
socioeconomic and technological progress, and
adaptation to climate change that may arise.
This session considers these key elements in the
context of energy trends and development
priorities, to consider a risk management
strategy that takes into account the
uncertainties inherent in long-term forecasts of
population, technology, socioeconomic activity,
emissions, climate system response and outcomes.
15
Key Elements of a Response to Global Climate
Change

• Research to assess the risk of global climate
  change and form a basis for societys response
• Addressing key uncertainties and gaps in our
  understanding
• Near-term, emission reduction
• Addressing CO2, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, and
  aerosols
• Near-term economic opportunities
• Efficiency, fuel-switching, cogeneration,
  protection of forests and soils, methane point
  sources, soot,
• Research to develop new energy technology options
  capable of supplying future energy demand with
  low CO2 emissions
• Without such technologies, deep reductions in
  emissions will not be an option
• Addressing development priorities
• Reducing vulnerability to a wide range of risks
• Improving opportunities for global deployment of
  existing and new efficient technologies
• Cooperation in addressing climate change
  international, regional, national

16
Session 1 Key Elements of Climate Change Risk
Management
0950 Energy, Emissions, and Investment
Trends Speaker Fatih Birol (International
Energy Agency) 1020 Risk Management and the
Economics of Actions Speaker Henry Jacoby
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology) 1050
Discussion 1045 BREAK 1145
Developmental Priorities and Technology
Development Speaker Priaydarshi Shukla
(Indian Institute of Management) 1210
Technological Progress, Energy and Climate Change
Speaker Sozaburo Okamatsu (Research
Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry) 1235
Adaptation and Capacity Speaker Lin Erda
(China Agricultural Science Institute) 1300
Discussion 1330 LUNCH