Global Environmental Change

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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
(GECAFS) Polly Ericksen GECAFS IPO, University
of Oxford
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Food security
... exists when all people, at all times, have
physical and economic access to sufficient, safe,
and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
and food preferences for an active and healthy
life. (World Food Summit 1996)
... is underpinned by Food Systems.
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Food Systems compriseActivities and Outcomes
Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food natural
resources, inputs, technology Processing
packaging food raw materials, standards,
consumer demand Distributing retailing food
marketing, advertising, trade Consuming food
preparation, consumption
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to
Ericksen, P. 2008. Global Environmental Change 18
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Using the Food Systems framework (hypothetical
example)
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Vulnerability of the Food System to GEC
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type,
frequency magnitude of environmental threats
Capacity to cope with, and adapt to, GEC
FOOD SYSTEM RESILIENCE / VULNERABILITY
Exposure to GEC
SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource
accessibility, economic conditions, etc.
(Source adapted from Ingram Brklacich, 2002
Ericksen, 2008)
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Vulnerability of the food system to GEC is
mediated by coping capacity
Example Nutritional diversity (milk) in the
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Milk production is sensitive to drought (it
decreases)
Food security outcome

• Weak coping capacity
• weak markets
• poor infrastructure
• low income
• poor storage or processing

• HIGH vulnerability
• access to milk decreases
• nutritional value decreases

Rural areas

• Strong coping capacity
• robust markets
• sufficient infrastructure
• higher income
• good storage and processing

• LOW vulnerability
• access to milk maintained
• nutritional value maintained

Urban areas
Source Multi-authored analysis of IGP food
system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In
prep.
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Adaptation to GEC

• Is aimed at reducing the vulnerability of food
  systems to stresses
• Requires adaptive capacity of individual actors
  and
• An enabling institutional and policy environment

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Adaptation to reduce vulnerability of food system
outcomes
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• OUTCOMES
• ACCESS
• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference
• AVAILABILITY
• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange
• UTILIZATION
• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

ACTORS STATE PRIVATE SECTOR NGO/
CIVIL SOCIETY RESOURCE MANAGERS (FARMERS)
ACTIVITIES PRODUCING PROCESSING
PACKAGING DISTRIBUTING RETAILING CONSUMING
RESEARCHERS
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Analysing Food Systems in context of drivers and
feedbacks
Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs
Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing
Packaging Distributing Retailing Consuming
GEC DRIVERS Changes in Land cover soils,
Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability means,
Water availability quality, Nutrient
availability cycling, Biodiversity, Sea
currents salinity, Sea level
Natural DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to Food
Security, Environmental Security, and other
Societal Interests
DRIVERSInteractions
Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in Demographics,
Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural
context Science Technology
Food Access
Food Utilisation
Food Availability
EnvironWelfare
Social Welfare
Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social
cohesion
Source Zurek, M. Ericksen, P. A Conceptual
Framework Describing Food System GEC
Interactions. In prep.
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Adaptation involves tradeoffs
Current food systems
Adapted food systems
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GECAFS Fundamental Questions

• How will GEC affect the vulnerability of food
  systems in different regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with
  GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation
  options for environmental and socioeconomic
  conditions?

Env Socio-economic Conditions
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation
It depends where, by when, by how much, how
fast, gt Regional research
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GECAFS Regional Science Plan Implementation
Strategy

• Policy-relevant research at national and
  regional-levels
• Focus on vulnerability/impacts, adaptation and
  feedbacks
• Based on improved conceptual understanding and
  methods
• Innovative research partnerships

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GECAFS IGP Study Districts capture trends in
socioeconomic biophysical conditions across the
IGP

• Gujarat, Punjab
• Pakistan
• wheat
• high ag inputs effective institutions
• variable water availability
• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions

• Rohini Basin, Terai
• Nepal
• rice/wheat
• out-migration of labour
• seasonal flooding
• variable water availability

• Ludhiana, Punjab
• India
• rice/wheat
• stagnant productivity growth
• high ag inputs effective institutions
• variable water availability
• groundwater depletion
• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions

• Greater Faridpur
• Bangladesh
• rice
• low income levels
• institutions failing
• drought
• seasonal flooding
• sea level salt water intrusion

• Vaishali, Bihar
• India
• rice
• low infrastructure investment
• low income levels
• out migration of labour
• little government policy support
• seasonal flooding
• variable water availability