Economics of population

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Economics of population

• Aravinda Guntupalli

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Facts on world population

• Total world population 6.1 billion
• About 75 of people live in developing countries
• About 60 of the population lives in Asia and
  Oceania
• About 40 of people live in only 15 countries
• By 2200, over 90 of population will live in what
  today are developing countries

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Topics

• Demographic measures
• Issues of population growth
• Population growth in the world
• Past
• Present
• Theories of population

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Demographic measures

• Birthrate
• Death rate
• Rate of natural increase
• Life expectancy at birth
• Dependency ratio
• Median age of the population

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Where is the data coming from?

• Census
• Vital statistics
• Surveys
• Parish records
• Archeological data

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Terms used

• Fertility
• Mortality
• Migration
• Age structure

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Components of population
Population in 2004 Births Deaths
Immigrants Emigrants --------------------------
Population in 2004

• Natural increase births-deaths
• Net migration Immigrants-emigrants

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Issues of population economics

• Dependency population
• Infrastructure
• Availability of resources
• Ageing
• Old age support
• Inequality
• Savings and consumption
• HIV/AIDS

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Contrasting problems

• Different parts of the world face different
  problems with regard to population growth.
• Many countries are struggling to decrease
  population whereas some are in the hope to
  increase their population

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Dependency problems

• Old age structures and young age structures both
  create problems with supporting dependents they
  are just different problems.
• Young age structure requires expanding labor
  markets, investments in education
• Investments in older people less likely to
  enhance productivity

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Population decline and economic growth

• Reduction in birthrates can raise per-capita
  income in 2 ways
• lower dependency ratio
• low consumption and high savings
• Shift of labor force investment from capital
  widening to capital deepening

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Ageing and economic burden in the EU

• The process of ageing is putting European social
  services under considerable stress
• Old age expenditure (as a of GDP) has risen
  significantly since the 1980s and remained stable
  during much of the 1990s
• Old age expenditure represents two fifths of all
  social expenditure (highest incidence in Italy,
  Greece, and Spain)

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Percentage of elderly in the EU and US
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Population Growth, 1750-2200 World, Less
Developed Regions, and More Developed Regions
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Population Pyramids Less Developed and More
Developed Countries 1998
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Malthusian population model

• Population tends to grow at a geometric rate,
  doubling every 30 to 40 years
• Food supplies only expand at an arithmetic rate
  due to diminishing returns to land (fixed factor)
• Malthusian population trap countries would be
  trapped in low per-capita incomes (per capita
  food), and population would stabilize at a
  subsistence level.
• Preventive and positive checks
• Technological progress is not considered

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The Demographic Transition

• Stage I birthrates and death rates are close and
  high
• Stage II continued high birthrates, declining
  death rates
• Stage III falling birthrates to reach death
  rates
• Stage IV both birth and death rates are close
  again and low

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Demographic transition
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The present demographic transition in developing
countries

• Stage II already occurred in most of the
  developing world,but with higher birthrates than
  in the developed world.
• Stage III
• has been similar to developed countries for
  some developing countries like Taiwan, South
  Korea, China,Chile, Costa Rica
• has not occurred yet for other countries mainly
  in Sub-Saharan Africa and the middle east.

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Rapid and Slow Transition

• Rapid transition
• Japan
• South Korea
• Taiwan
• Singapore
• Thailand
• Indonesia

• Slow Transition
• Pakistan
• India
• Bangladesh
• Philippines
• Papua New Guinea

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Miracles of rapid transition in East Asia

• Rapid demographic change creates windows
• of opportunity for accelerated economic growth
• Rapid growth of labor force
• Saving and investment
• Changing roles of women
• Human resource investment

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• Thank You