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World Population Problems

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World Population Problems Nature of the World Population Problem Stable population for 8,000 years Survival precarious for most people Since 1650 there has been rapid ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: World Population Problems


1
World Population Problems
  • Nature of the World Population Problem
  • Stable population for 8,000 years
  • Survival precarious for most people
  • Since 1650 there has been rapid population growth

2
World Population Growth
3
Population variables
  • Population increases are a function of three
    variables, i.e. fertility, mortality and
    migration
  • Population formula
  • Population (now) Population (then)
    (births-deaths) /- Migration

4
  • World Population Growth
  • 8,000 BC to 1650 AD 500 million
  • 1650 AD to 2000 AD 5.6 billion
  • 50,000 new mouths to feed every year in first
    period
  • 50,000 new mouths to feed every 6 minutes today.
  • 90 million people added every year today

5
  • Malthus Explanation of Population Growth
  • Thomas Malthus Essay on Population
  • Population grows as exponential rate
    (2,4,8,16,32,64)
  • Food production grows at arithmetical rate
    (1,2,3,4,5)
  • Population increases faster that food production

6
  • Validity of Malthus Predictions
  • Malthus proved to be poor prophet in 18th and
    19th C
  • Famine, disease, war did not result in decreased
    world population
  • Was Malthus premature?
  • Paul Erlichs Population Bomb (neo-Malthusian
    position) vs.Julian Simons Population as the
    Ultimate Resource. (cornucopian position)

7
Neo-Malthusian position
  • Population growth straining the worlds resources
  • Destruction of forests for development and/or
    food production
  • Energy and mineral consumption taxes resources
  • Over-fishing
  • Widening gap between rich and poor
  • Inadequate development, refugee problems, donor
    fatigue
  • Belief in environmental responsibility leading to
    sustainable growth

8
Cornucopian position
  • Life expectancy doubled in 20th C (30yrs to 60
    yrs)
  • Global health and productivity expanding
  • Overpopulation is scare talk of environmentalists
  • The real issue of poverty not breeding
  • Technology will solve all human problems
  • Population growth creates jobs, opens markets,
    expands opportunities
  • Ecologists want sustainability cornucopian
    economists want economic growth, exploitation of
    markets and resources

9
  • Reasons for Rapid Population Growth
  • The Demographic transition (from high birth rate
    and high death rate to low birth rate and low
    death rate)
  • Population growth is a function of three
    variables fertility, mortality and migration
  • Formula Population now Population (then) /-
    (births-deaths) /- migration

10
  • Demographic Transition
  • Stage I
  • Preindustrial economy
  • High birth rates and high death rates
  • Stable population that grows slowly
  • Large number of children who perform useful work
    in fields
  • Children provide social security system in old
    age
  • Life expectancy low security dependent on your
    family

11
  • Stage II
  • High birth rates with falling death rates
  • Improvements in public health, sanitation,
    medicine that prolongs life
  • Productivity of agriculture improves
  • Opportunity for alternative employment due to
    industrial development
  • Industrialization stimulates urbanization and
    specialization of labor

12
  • Stage III
  • Birth rate declines rapidly
  • Smaller families due to urbanization and demands
    for education
  • Children are more of a liability financially and
    economically
  • Population growth declines dramatically

13
  • Stage IV
  • Birth rates and death rates fall
  • Population stabilizes at lower level
  • Demand for education high
  • Modern economy and urban environment make large
    families less necessary
  • Governments adopt social security programs
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