ACT AND ADAPT: CLIMATE CHANGE IN SCOTLAND

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ACT AND ADAPTCLIMATE CHANGE IN SCOTLAND
Climate Change Division
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Climate Change Science

• 2,000 international scientists say humans cause
  global warming, and climate change is faster than
  expected.
• Without action on greenhouse gases, global
  temperature will rise 2-4C, and maybe 6C, this
  century.
• Significant risk that global warming will
  accelerate, leading to sudden or irreversible
  climate change.
• Rising temperature, rising sea level, melting ice
  sheets, ocean acidification, extreme climate
  events.
• The poor and vulnerable will be worst affected.

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Climate Change Global Action

• A new global treaty on climate change is vital to
  stop global warming of 2C above pre-industrial
  levels.
• Global greenhouse gas emissions to be stabilised
  by around 2020, then reduced by at least 50 of
  1990 levels by 2050.
• Action by developed and developing world needed.
  
• Against background of economic problems, United
  Nations meets in Copenhagen in December 2009.
• Agreement of USA, China, India and Brazil on
  fossil fuels, deforestation and finance for the
  developing world is crucial.

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Climate Change European Union and UK

• European Union is leading global action. Target
  to deliver 20 emissions cuts by 2020, increasing
  to 30 if there is a global agreement.
• Targets to establish a 20 share for renewable
  energy, and to improve energy efficiency by 20.
  
• The UK has also acted unilaterally through its
  Climate Change Act 2008, setting a target of 80
  cuts by 2050.
• EU and UK are committed to a low carbon economy.

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Scottish Ministers Policy

• Climate change is a serious threat.
• Scotland can act as a model of international best
  practice to influence international action.
• The shift to a low carbon economy is a major
  opportunity, particularly for economic recovery.
• Scotland to be green energy capital of Europe.
• Cost of action is much less than cost of inaction.

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Scotland Legislation
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Scotland Legislation

• Scottish Ministers Climate Change Bill is
  world-leading climate legislation
• Covers all greenhouse gases.
• Covers international aviation and shipping.
• System of annual targets cutting greenhouse
  gases.
• 2020 interim target, at least 42 cut in
  emissions if EU adopts 30 target.
• Target of 80 cut in emissions by 2050.

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Scotland Transport Emissions are Rising
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Scotland Greenhouse Gas Emissions

• Consumption in Scotland continues to rise.
• Greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland rose by 5.4
  from 2005 to 2006, mostly increased coal power
  generation due to high gas prices and outages at
  nuclear stations.
• Despite this, emissions at 59 MtCO2e in 2006 were
  still 13.4 lower than the 1990-95 international
  baseline, mainly due to the shift away from heavy
  industry.
• Emissions in 2007 are expected to fall to around
  20 below the 1990-95 baseline.
• Emissions figures are volatile.

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Scotland The Challenge
Total net GHG emissions in 2006 were 88 of 1990
emissions

• need to fall by 80 by 2050

Business (incl. industrial processes)
Waste
International Aviation Shipping
Transport
Residential
Public
Energy Supply
Agriculture
Land Use , Land Use Change Forestry
2006
2050
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Committee on Climate Change
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Committee on Climate Change

• The Committee has recommended
• Rapid decarbonisation of electricity
  production.
• More wind power.
• Energy efficiency at home and work.
• Increasing green electricity for heat and
  transport.
• Decarbonisation of industry.

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Scotland Green Energy Capital of Europe
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Scotland Delivery

• Strong low carbon energy plan based on 10 energy
  pledges.
• Target of 31 renewable energy by 2011 and 50 by
  2020.
• Huge potential for offshore wind and marine
  energy (10m Saltire Prize).
• At leading edge of developing carbon capture and
  storage.
• 50 of emissions covered by carbon trading
  schemes.
• 2.6 billion over 3 years on greener transport.
• Aspiration to increase forest cover from 17 to
  25.

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Scotland Delivery

• 15m for a new area-based energy efficiency in
  homes.
• 27m Climate Challenge Fund funding community
  carbon reduction projects.
• Commitment to assess carbon impact of Government
  budgets from 2010-11.
• Public sector National Health Service has
  reduced emissions by 40 compared to 1990.
• Business 0.2m for Prince of Wales Mayday
  climate change business network, via Scottish
  Business in the Community.

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Scotland Adaptation
Scotlands Climate Change Adaptation
Framework Exposure Adaptive Capacity Competing
Pressures