???(Ayo)

1
?????????
???????????

• ???(Ayo)
• ?????? ???????
• ????????? ?? (??)

2015?01?20?(??) ?? 0800 -- 1150?????? ??????
2
?????????(?)

• ??
• ??????(?10???)
• ???????????
• ?????
• ??????????
• ???????
• ????????
• ?????????

3
?????????(?)

• ??40?????????????????
• ??????????
• ??????
• ????????
• ??

4
10???,??????????????????10?????-??
1????10???????7,000 ???1???????1400AD????
1875AD????1950AD?
5
?????
6
?????
7
?????
8
?????
9

• ??????????,?????????,???????
• ?????????????,??????????????
• ??????,?????,???????

10
????????????????????????(??)??????

• Wackernagel, M. (1996) Our ecological footprint
  reducing human impact on the Earth.

??
??
11

• ????????????????,?????????????,??????????

12
???????????

• 1. ??????,????????
• 2. ????????????????,????????
• 3. ???????????,???????????????
• 4. ???????????????,??????????
• 5. ???????????,???????

13
???????????

• 6. ???????????????......????????
• 7. ??????????????,?????????
• 8. ??????????,??????????????
• 9. ??????????,????,?????????,???????,???????

14
??????,??????
???? http//themetapicture.com/human-evolution-vs-
nature/
15
???????????????

• What kind of world will we leave to our
  descendants?
• Source McKinney and Schoch (1996) Environmental
  Science. West pub. (p.592)

16
The background of ecology??? (?) ??????

• ??? 4th??????/???(providential)???
• Aristotle???????,???????,????????,????
  ???????????
• Herodotus and Plato??????????????????????????????
  ???????, ?????????????????

17
The background of ecology??? (?) ??????

• 17th - 19th ??????
• Graunt (1662) ?????,????,???,???????,???????64???
  ??
• Leeuweenhoek (1687) ??????????,?
• ????????????746,496????
• Buffon (1756) Natural History ???? / ??,
  
  ????
• Malthus (1798) Essay on Population. ?????
  ????????? (checked)

18
The background of ecology??? (?) ?????????

• Farr (1834) Malthus ??????????????,?????,?????,??
  ???????????,??????????
• 20th ?? ????????????,
• ??????????????????
• ?1900??, Ecology ????????
• ?????????????????
• ?????(????????)????

19
???? (Public awakens)(?)

1. ?????????1930????,?????1970??,??????????????
2. A. Bramwell (1989) ? 1970??????????? Ecologism
   (????) (????)
3. ?????????,???1800???

20
????????? (?)

• G. P. Marsh (1864) Man and Nature.
• E. Haeckel (1900) The Riddle of the universe.
• (1905) The wonders of Life.
• / back-to-the-land movement
• / ????/???????
• J. Ritchie (1920) The influence of man on
• animal life in Scotland.

21
????????? (?)

• P. B. Sears (1935) Deserts on the march.
• W. Vogt (1948) Road to survival.
• F. Osburn (1948) Our plundered (???) planet.
• W. L. Thomas (1956) Man's role in changing the
• face of the Earth. Proceedings of
  symposium.
• Rachel Carson (1962) Silent Spring. (?????)
• P. R. Ehrlich (1968) The population Bomb.
• G. Hardin (1968) The tragedy of the commons.
  (??????)
• I. L. McHarg (1969) Design with Nature.

22
????????? (?)

• P. Shepard and D. McKinley (1969)
• The subversive Scinece.
  (??????)
• E. Callenbach (1970) Ecotopia. (????)
• D. H. Meadows, D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, and
• W. W. Berhens III (1972) The limits to
  growth.(?????)
• IUCN (1980) World Conservation Strategy.(??????)
• Council on Environmental Quality (1980) Global
  2000 (??2000)

23
??????????(?)

• 1605 ?????????????, ? Fenmen ???
• 1870 ???????????????????Merritt??
• 1872 ??????, ????????????
• 1900 Lacey Act (??), ???????????????
• 1903 ??????????????, ??, Pelican island
• 1918 ?????????????????

24
??????????(?) (1960s)

• 1964 ????(Wilderness Act) ???
• 1966 endangered species act passed.
• 1967 ?? International Biological Program (IBP)
• ?????? ??, ???, ???, ??, ...
• ?? (1) ?????????????????
• (2) ???????????
• (3) ??????????
• (4) ????????????
• (5) ???????, ???????????

25
???????
1960s - 1970s.

• ???
• 1970???

?????? ????
Carson, Rachel (1962)
26
????????(????,????)
1960s - 1970s.

• ???
• 1970???

Carson, Rachel (1962)
?????? ????
27
??????

• 1969?7?20?,?????11???????????
• 1970?4?22?,????

28
1980s.

• ????????
• 1. ????????,???????????
• 2. ???????????????
• 3. ??????????
• 4. ?????????????

29
???????

• ?????? ????? (Environmental Education Act) (1970)
• ?????????,??????????????,
• ????????????????????????????????????,?????????

30
???????..1990

• ?????????????,????,???????????????????
• ??????,????????????????????.?????????????
• ????????????????????
• ????????????,???????????,???,??????????
• ??? well educated and trained, professional work
  force.
• Threats to human health and environmental quality
  are increasing complex, involving a wide range of
  conventional and toxic contaminants in the air
  and water and on the land.

31
?????(?) (1970s-90s)

• 1970 ??????(NEPA) ??????????
• 1970 ????????(Earth day)
• 1970 UNESCO ? Man and the Biosphere Program.
• 1980 IUCN ?? World Conservation
  Strategy.(??????)
• 1983 ????????????????
• 1992 ????????????????????(??)
• 2000 International Biodiversity Observation Year
• 2001 ??????
• 2002 ????????????

32
1990s-2000s..
33
????????? (2000)

• ????????? (2000) ?????????????
• International Biodiversity Observation
  Year,(IBOY),??????????????????,?????????????????
• ?????????DIVERSITAS?????
• ?DIVERSITAS??????????,?????????????????????????

34
???? (Nature conservation)?
????????

• ?? (protection)??????,?????
• ?? (preservation)??(??)?????
• ?? (conservation)???,???????????

35
?? (conservation)

• Conservation ?????
• ???? ?????????
• ????
• ???? (conservation strategy)
• ?????? 3 E ???
• Ecological integrity (conservation)
• Economic efficiency (????)
• Equity (??)

36
?????(Conservation Biology) ???

1. ??????????????????????
2. ?????????
3. ???????(????)???
4. ???? (Adaptive science),????????
5. ??????? (A legally empowered science)

37
???????????

1. ????????
2. ?????
3. ?????
4. ?????????,????
5. ???????????

38
????????

• ???????????????????,??????(?????)??????
• ?????????,?????????????(??)?????,????????(conserva
  tion strategy)?
• ???????????????(??)??????????????????,???????????
  ????

39
???????? (?)

• ?????????????,????????,?????????????,????????(????
  ??)
• ????????????,???????,?????????(??)???
• ???????????????????,????????
• ????,????????????,??????????????????,????????????,
  ????????????????

40
???????? (?)

• ????????(????)?,?????????(??)????
• ????????,?????????,???????????????????????????????
  ???(??)??,???????,?????????????????,???????,??????
  ??????
• ???????????????,????,???????????????????

41
????????

• ????????? (Anthropocentric instrumental values)
• ??????????(non-anthropocentric intrinsic value)

42
????????????
?? ??
?? (goods) ???????????
?? (services) ?????????????????
?? (information) ???????????????
????? (psycho-spiritual) ????????????
43
????

• ???? (Burden of proof)
• ???? (Precautionary principle)
• ????????? (Integrated conservation and
  development projects) (ICDP)

44
???? (Burden of proof)

• ??????????,
• ?????? ?????
• ????????? (??)(??)
• ???????,????????,
• ?????? ?????
• ???????????????(??)

45
???? (Precautionary principle)

• ?????????????
• ?????????????,??????????(???????),?????????
• ???????? ,??????????,?????????????????
• ?????????????

46
???? (Burden of proof)

• ?????,???????
• ?????????? (conservationists)
• ?????,????????,??????
• ???????? (developers)

47
Integrated conservation and development projects
(ICDP)
???
????
????
??????
48
????????????????

• ????????????
• ????????? (Alternative livelihoods)
• ???????????????
• ??????????(economic justification)
• ???????????

49
????
????????

1. ????(conservation strategy)
2. ????????????
3. ???? (Burden of proof)
4. ???? (Precautionary principle)
5. ????????? (Integrated conservation and
   development projects) (ICDP)

50
Conservation ethics (????)
Dyke, F. V. (2003) Conservation Biology.
McGraw-Hill Inc.

1. ????????????
2. ???????????????????????????????????
3. ?????????????????????????
4. ????????????????????????????????

51
Fig. 4.7 Leopold ????
52
?????????

1. 1970s ?? Unprepared (???)
2. 1970s Reactive (??)????
3. 1980s Anticipatory (????)????
4. 1990s Proactive (?????)???? (eco-efficiency)
5. 2000s ?? High integration (????)????? ????????

??
??
?
??
???? ?????
53
????????????????

• The Green-Collar Economy How One Solution Can
  Fix Our Two Biggest Problems
• ????Van Jones (?.??)
• ?????????
• ?????
• ????2010/04/09

54
Green Economy (2010s)
55
Sustainable development
56
???????????
????
??(??)
??(??)
????
????
??(??)
http//www.uitp.org/Public-Transport/sustainablede
velopment/
57
???(??) ??

• ???????
• ??
• ????
• ??????What is to be developed
• ??(????????????????????????????)
• ?? (????????????????????????)

58
??(growth) vs. ??

• ????????
• ????????
• ?????????????????????,???????

59
Sustainability vs. number of people
Subsistence use
Local markets
National markets
Multi-national trade
Economic return Number of people
supported Spatial extent
sustainability
60
?????????

• ????????,???????????????????
• ???????????????????????,?????????,???????
• ???????Humility(??),??????????(??)?
• ?????????????????????????????????????
• ????????,??????,??????????????????,???????,???????
  ???????(needs)???(wants)????
• ??????????,????,????.

61
???????????

• ??????
• ???????
• ???????????
• ????,?????????
• ????????

62
????????????

• ????????
• ????
• ??
• ??????
• ?????????
• ????
• ???
• ?????
• ????????????
• ?????

63
?????? vs. ??????
??
??? ? ?????,No.56, 2006?10??,p.55?
63
64
2052 Jorgen Randers (2012)??40?????????????????
2052A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

• ????Jorgen Randers
• ?????
• ???????
• ????2013/08/08

20124020522012 - 401972 ?????(1972???)?
65
The limits to Growth
?????

• Author
• Donella H. Meadows
• Dennis L. Meadows
• Jørgen Randers
• William W. Behrens III
• Publisher Universe Books
• Publication date 1972
• Pages 205
• ISBN 0-87663-165-0

66
?????????????? (2002)
1972 30 2002

• ??
• ???.???(Dennis Meadows)
• ??.???(Jorgen Randers)
• ???.???(Donella Meadows)
• ?? ???
• ??? ??
• ???? 20070125
• ISBN 9789867058669

67
2050
More Abundant Nonrenewable Resources
68
Graph 10.Climate Change 1970 to 2050
2010 2035 25
2035 - 2050 15
69
Graph 11.Food production 1970 to 2050
2010 2035 25
2035 - 2050 15
70
Graph 13. State of Affairs 1970 to 2050
2035 - 2050 15
2010 2035 25
71
Graph 15. Standard of living (1970 to 2050)
2010 2035 25
2035 - 2050 15
72
???????
8000?
350?
???????
?????????
???????,???????
73
???????

• ?????,
• ??????????????????
• ?????????????
• ?????????????,??????????
• ??????????????????????????????,???????????????????
  ???????????????

74
??????.???????????????.????? (Systems
thinker)???????

1. ??????????,?????????????
2. ??????????????,?????????????
3. ???????????

75
a prayer of St Francis of Assisi?????????
(??????)

• "Where there is discord may we bring harmony"
• ????????,?????????
• "Where there is error may we bring truth"
• ????????,?????????
• "Where there is doubt may we bring faith"
• ????????,?????????
• "Where there is despair may we bring hope"
• ????????,?????????

76
?????????
????2010 - 2035
77
??????????

• ????????(interface)?????(translational
  scientists)
• ????(conservation policy)????
• ???????????
• ?????? (adaptive management),?????????

78
?????(translational scientists)

• ?????????????????,???????????????????
• ??????????,??????,??????????,????????
• ?????,????????????????

79
??(interface)

• ???????,???????????,????????????????,?????????????
  ??,???????????????
• ?????,????????????,?????????
• ??????????,???????????????

80
The interface

• ????????????
• ???????????,?????????
• ????,????????????????,?????????
• ????????????????,???????????,?????????
• ???(Credibility) ? ???(Legitimacy)

81
?????

• ????,????????,?????(??)??,????????????????
• Conservation policy is rarely made by scientists.
• Conservation policy even that which claims to
  be science-based policy invariably reflects
  compromise among the social, political, economic
  issues.

82
Fig. 17.4 policy decision often are dominated by
business interests.
83
????????????

• ????,????????????
• Doubt is ubiquitous in science.
• Scientists use the scientific method to reduce
  uncertainty and get closer to the truth, but we
  accept that we will never have perfect knowledge.
• Decisions must be make with whatever information
  is available today, regardless of the quantity or
  quality of that science.
• All conservation efforts directed at complex
  ecosystems have many sources of uncertainty.

84
????????(Adaptive management),????????

• Adaptive management treats management as an
  element of the learning process.
• Explicit experimental design to test management
  outcomes must be built into the project.
• Science and advocacy conservation scientists have
  strong personal opinions on how we should
  conserve species and habitats.
• But how far should scientists go when speaking
  out?
• Where is the line between advocacy for science
  and advocacy for the environment?
• Debated this issue for years

85
??????

• ???
• ?????Ayo ???

Ayo NUTN website http//myweb.nutn.edu.tw/hychen
g/
86
????? (??)Heath hem (Tympanuchus cupido cupido)

• ????New England ?Virginia State
• 1876,???? Martha's Vineyard?
• 1900,????100??
• 1907,??refuge(???)?
• 1916,???????800???????,???????????,????????100??15
  0??
• 1920,????????200?????????,?????100????
• 1932,???

87
???????

• (1) demographic stochasticity
• (2) environmental stochasticity
• (3) natural catastrophes
• (4) genetic stochasticity

88
?? minimum population size

• (1) Experiments
• (2) Biogeographic patterns
• (3) Theoretical models
• (4) Simulation models
• (5) Genetic considerations

89
Genetic considerations

• ??????????
• (1) inbreeding ??homozygosity ???
• (2) Genetic drift
• (3) ???????

90
?????(Biogeography)

• ???????????????????
• ?????(Plant geography)
• ?????(Zoogeography)
• ???????(Island Biogeography)

91
?????????

• 1820 1940?????????????
• 1940???Cain(1944)?????????????,??????????(Histor
  ical biogeography)????????(Ecological
  biogeography)?
• 1961?????????(1)????,(2)?????????

92
1960??????????

• ??
• (1) ?????
• (2)?????
• (3)???,???????????
• (4)??/??,??????

93
Fig. 10. Schematic illustration of some
principles for the design of nature reserves.
94
Fig.5a. The Galapagos Islands
95
Fig. 5b. Number of land-plant species on the
Galapagos islands in relation to the area of the
island. S 28.6A 0.32
96
Fig. 6. Species-area curve for the amphibians and
reptiles of the West Indies. S 3.3A 0.30
97
Fig. 9. Island biogeography applied to
mountaintops.(a) Map of the Great Basin region
of the western United States showing the isolated
mountain ranges between the Rocky Mountains on
the east and the Sierra Nevada on the west.
98
Fig. 9. Island biogeography applied to
mountaintops.(b) Species-area relationship for
the resident boreal birds of the mountaintops in
the Great Basin.
99
Fig. 9. Island biogeography applied to
mountaintops. (c) Species-area relationship for
the boreal mammal species.
100
Fig. 7. Equilibrium model of a biota of a single
island.
101
Fig. 8 Equilibrium models of biotas of several
islands of varying distances from the principal
source area and of varying size.
102
Fig. 10 Colonization curves of four small
mangroves islands in the lower Florida Keys,
whose entire faunas, consisting almost solely of
arthropods, were exterminated by methyl bromide
fumigation.
103
1960-1980???????

• (1) ?????
• (2) ????????????????
• (3) MacArthur and Wilson (1963,
  1967)?????????????
• (4) Vicariance ??????
• 1980???,the study of biodiversity?

104
Fig. 11. Baja California
105
?1. Cortez ?????????????
? ? ???? ???? ???? ???? ?? ????
50km2 ??????????? 105 13 9.3 3.5 1.3
??????????????????? No No No Yes Yes Very Yes
????????????????? No ??? Yes Yes Very Yes
Holocene???????????????????????? No No No No No ???
?????,???????????? ????? No No No No No No No No No Yes ??? Yes
???????? ????? 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 35 0 47 16 69
106
Fig. 13. ???????(???Case Code, 1987)
107
??????????????

• ???????????
• (1) maximizes the mean size of reserves
• (2) maximizes the number of reserves

108
Fig. 4. The distribution of areas of nature
reserves in the world.
109
Fig. 14. Diagram of experimental design. Plots
with solid edges represent enclosures preventing
access by sheep. Broken lines mark delineated
plots in the grazed area.
110
?2. ????????????????,????????????
?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
N 32 8 2 16 4 1
?? 29 26 20 26 16 15
??/?? 15 15 15 13 12 (15)
??/?? 3 8 15 5 8 (15)
?? 34? 34? 34? 26? 26? 26?
111
?3. ?????????????
? ? ?? ?? ?? ??
??1985 1986 1987 29 30 33 26 27 29 20 20 25 34 33 40
???? 1985-1986 1986-1987 4 2 5 3 3 2 5 1
???? 1985-1986 1986-1987 5 5 6 5 3 7 4 6
112
Fig. 16. Cumulative species-area curves for
oceanic archipelagos.a. Extant native birds of
the Hawaiian islandsb. Galapagos land birdsc.
Galapagos Darwin's finchesd. Galapagos ferns.
????? ??200????
113
Fig. 16. Cumulative species-area curves for
oceanic archipelagos.e. Galapagos insectsf.
Galapagos flowering plantsg. Caribbean bats.h.
Facroes islands ground beetles.
????? ??200????
114
Fig. 16. Cumulative species-area curves for
oceanic archipelagos. g. Caribbean bats.h.
Facroes islands ground beetles.i.. Canary
Islands birdsj. Canary island ground beetles.
????? ??200????
115
Fig. 17. Cumulative species-area curves for
nearshores archipelagos. a. Seabirds on islands
off of Scotland.b. Extant marsupials on islands
in the Bass Straits.c. Reptiles on islands in
the Bass Straits. d. Sand dune mammals on
islands in the Bass Straits.
???? ??100KM??
116
Fig. 17. Cumulative species-area curves for
nearshore archipelagos. e. Birds of the
California Channel islands.f. Reptiles and
amphibians of the California Channel islands.g.
Plants of the islands in the Gulf of
California.h. Mammals of the islands in the Gulf
of California.
???? ??100KM??
117
Fig. 17. Cumulative species-area curves for
nearshores archipelagos. g. Plants of the
islands in the Gulf of California.h. Mammals of
the islands in the Gulf of California.i.
Reptiles and amphibians of the islands in the
Gulf of California.
???? ??100KM??
118
Fig. 18. Cumulative species-area curves for
terrestrial habitat isolates.a. Mammals of East
African national parks.b. Birds of East African
national parks.c. Mountaintop small mammals. d.
Mountaintop plants.
?????
119
Fig. 18. Cumulative species-area curves for
terrestrial habitat isolates.e. Mountaintop
birdsf. Birds in New Jersey woodlotsg. Mammals
of Australian wheatbelt reserves.h. Lizards of
Australian wheatbelt reserves.
?????
120
Fig. 18. Cumulative species-area curves for
terrestrial habitat isolates. g. Mammals of
Australian wheatbelt reserves.h. Lizards of
Australian wheatbelt reserves.i. Mammals of U.S.
national parks.
?????
121
Fig. 19 Effect of anthropogenic extinctions on
cumulative species-area curves for two island
groups.a. Extant native birds of the Hawaiian
islandsb. Extant and fossil birds of the
Hawaiian islands.c. Marsupials on island in the
Bass Strait.d. Marsupials on island in the Bass
Strait.
122
??????,????????????,?????

• 1. Habitat diversity
• 2. Population dynamics.
• Priority effects
• Multiple stable equilibria
• Edge effects
• Disturbance
• Species pool and dispersal ability.
• Colonization
• Evolutionary effects.
• Extinctions.
• 3. Historical effects.

123
Character Displacement

• ?????,????????,??????????????
• ????????

124
Fig. 1 The considerable difference in beak
morphology between these three species of
Darwin's finches, Geospiza, which coexist on many
Galapagos islands, has been the subject of much
debate concerning its cause.
125
Fig. 2 The beak morphology of Geospiza
conirostris shows significant variation on
different species on different islands.
126
Fig. 3. The average beak depths of four species
of Darwin's finches on three islands where they
coexist show considerable variation from island
to islands, even though the same set of possible
competition occurs on each island.
127
????????

• ????????????????
• ?????????
• ????? vs. ?????
• ???????????????????
• ???????
• Nothing is certain but change.

128
Our decisions will determine the fate of
biodiversity

• The decisions we make over the coming decade will
  strongly influence how much degradation of
  biodiversity occurs throughout this century.
• We need to promote radical changes in practices
  to reduce population growth and consumption, and
  to conserve biodiversity and improve human
  welfare throughout the globe.

129
Fig 18.2 fertility rates are declining worldwide,
and are projected to be just 2.5 children per
woman by 2025
130
Fig. 18.7 The costs of existing conservation
programs are generally not met in most areas of
the world.
131
Fig. 18.8 Biodiversity conservation projects
should be designed within an adaptive framework.
132
?????
133
Fig. 18.9 Most people have a habit of denying the
ills of our future, and refuse the sacrifices
that will be required.
134
(No Transcript)
135
(No Transcript)
136
?????

• Ayo NUTN website
• http//myweb.nutn.edu.tw/hycheng/