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Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction using a fully coupled OAGCM

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International collaborators: LODYC: OPA model group ... 0.6 0.9 1982-2004 Contour ... Signal is not as strong/regular as ENSO Chaotic and active ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction using a fully coupled OAGCM


1
Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction using
a fully coupled OAGCM ENSO IOD predictions
Jing-Jia Luo (luo_at_jamstec.go.jp) Sebastien
Masson, Swadhin Behera Horifumi Sakuma, and
Toshio Yamagata Climate Variations Research
Program Frontier Research Center for Global
Change (FRCGC), JAMSTEC, Japan

2
The SINTEX-F Coupled GCM (Luo et al. GRL 2003, J.
Climate 2005a Masson et al. GRL 2005)
1. Model components AGCM (MPI, Germany)
ECHAM4.6 (T106L19) OGCM (LODYC,
France) OPA8.2 (2? x 0.5??2?, L31)
Coupler (CERFACS, France) OASIS2.4
No flux correction, no sea ice model 2.
International collaborators LODYC
OPA model group INGV (Italy) Antonio
Navarras group MPI-Met ECHAM model
group CERFACE OASIS coupler group
PRISM project group

Running on the Earth Simulator
3
9-member ensemble hindcast experiments
  • Three models with different coupling physics
  • (Each model has realistic ENSO IOD
    simulations)
  • sfe1 Ocean surface is solid to atmosphere.
  • (Ua Ua for Tau heat flux)
  • sfe2 Ocean surface current momentum is passed
    to atmosphere.
  • (Ua-Uo (Ua-Uo) for Tau heat flux)
  • sfe3 Ocean surface is solid to atmosphere, but
  • (Ua-Uo (Ua-Uo) for Tau)
  • 2. Initial condition
  • 1971-1981 Model spin-up
  • 1982-2004 A simple coupled SST-nudging
    scheme
  • 3. Three different restoring timescales for
    SST-nudging
  • 1day, 2 days, 3 days (weekly NCEP Reynolds
    data)


Forecast 12 months from 1st day of every month
during 1982-2004.
4
1982-2004
gt0.9
Shaded area gt0.6
Contour interval is 0.1, starting from 0.4
Luo et al., J. Climate, 2005b.
5
El Nino 1986/87 1991/92 1997/98 2002/03 La
Nina 1984/85 1988/89 1995/96 1999/2000
NCEP obs.
3-month lead
6-month lead
Contour interval is 0.3ºC
9-month lead
6
Extended ENSO prediction
Nino3.4 SSTA prediction
0.5
ACC
Ensemble mean
ACC
Each member
Persistence
RMSE
Luo et al., J. Climate, 2007, in press.
7
SSTA 2-m air temperature anomaly
Contour interval is 0.3ºC
Consistent with classical ENSO theory
8
SSTA 2-m air temperature anomaly
Contour interval is 0.3ºC
Related to decadal ENSO variations.
9
Difficulties in predicting Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD) (compared to ENSO predictions)
  • Signal is not as strong/regular as ENSO
  • Chaotic and active ISOs (initial conditions
    predictions)
  • Strong monsoon influence (seasonal interannual)
  • ENSO influence (interactive?)
  • Sparse subsurface observations in the Indian
    Ocean
  • Large deficiencies of coupled GCMs in simulating
    Indian Ocean climate

10
Winter and spring barrier
(90º-110ºE, 10ºS-0º)
9-member ensemble hindcasts (1982-2004)
0.5
Predictable up to 2 seasons ahead.
Luo et al., J. Climate, 2007, 2178-2190.
11
Prediction plumes
EIO SSTA (90º-110ºE, 10ºS-0º)
NCEP SST 1 Sep. (-1) 1 Nov. (-1) 1 Jan. (0) 1
May (0) 1 Sep. (0)
Both events can be predicted at long-lead times.
12
Real time forecasts
Predicted SST anomaly in 2006 (18-member mean)
from 1Mar2005
Consensus forecasts based on those initiated from
1/12/ 2005, 1/01/2006, 1/02/2006, and 1/03/2006,
respectively.
Similar to the situation in 1994
13
Obs.
Ensemble mean
IOD forecasts in 2006 (18-member)
http//www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/ind
ex.html
14
Initial conditions
Possible preconditioning for long-range
prediction of IOD
15
Obs. conditions in SON2006 (IOD impacts?)
Rainfall anom. (mm/day)
2-m air temperature anom. (ºC)
16
Predicted conditions in SON2006 from 1 July 2006
(27-member mean)
Rainfall anom. (mm/day)
Constant greenhouse gas forcing only
2-m air temperature anom. (ºC)
17
Summary
  • ENSO can be predicted out to 1-year lead and even
    up to 2-years ahead in some cases.
  • ISOs may limit ENSO predictability in certain
    cases.
  • The results suggest a potential predictability
    for decadal ENSO-like process.
  • IOD can be basically predicted up to 2 seasons
    ahead.
  • Extreme IOD events (and their climate impacts)
    can be
  • predicted at long-lead times (up to 1-year
    lead).
  • Preconditioning Tsub in the tropical
    southwestern
  • Indian Ocean.

Real time forecasts at one month intervals
http//www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/in
dex.html
18

Global SSTA forecasted from 1May2007 (27-member
using SINTEX-F CGCM)
JJA2007
SON2007
DJF2007/08
19
Nino3.4 SSTA forecast up to 2-year ahead
(9-member)
1 Sep. 2006
Ensemble mean
The La Nina condition would be long-lived
according to the model forecast.
1 Jan. 2007
1 May 2007
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