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California Energy Security Project: What climate science can do for the energy sector

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California Energy Security Project: What climate science can do for the energy sector Tim P. Barnett David W. Pierce Scripps Institution of Oceanography – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: California Energy Security Project: What climate science can do for the energy sector


1
California Energy Security Project What climate
science can do for the energy sector
  • Tim P. Barnett
  • David W. Pierce
  • Scripps Institution of Oceanography
  • La Jolla, CA

2
Purpose
  • Determine the economic value of climate forecasts
    to the energy sector.
  • Energy sector already uses weather forecasts, but
    longer term climate information is not often
    used.
  • There is a great opportunity here
  • One-year project, funded by NOAA.

3
Stumbling blocks
  • Climate forecasts give probabilities, not
    certainties
  • Working with the industry to show how this
    information can be used
  • Forecasts can be hard to understand
  • Our job is to provide what is needed, in a useful
    form
  • Regulatory issues
  • Industry actions have to be doable in the
    framework established by the Public Utility
    Commission

4
Project Overview
Scripps Inst. Oceanography University of
Washington Georgia Inst. Tech
Academia
California Energy Commission California ISO
San Diego Gas Elec. SoCal Gas PacifiCorp SAIC
State Partners
Industrial Partners
5
Example 1. North Pacific Oscillation
6
Why the NPO matters
High pressure associated with the NPO generates
winds from the north west which bring cold,
arctic air into the western U.S. during winter
7
(No Transcript)
8
North Pacific Oscillation (cont'd)
  • Climate information likelihood of a warm or cold
    winter
  • Energy decision purchase gas on long-term
    contracts, or spot market

9
2. Streamflow predictions hydropower
  • Dams subject to many rules
  • Must have capacity to prevent floods must not
    release so much can't refill etc.
  • Dam releases in Pacific Northwest planned only
    after snowpack measured in mid December
  • Streamflow forecasts would let power be generated
    safely earlier in the year
  • Worth 40M to 153M per year.

Hamlet, Huppert, Lettenmeier 2002, J. Water
Resources Planning and Management
10
Hydropower (cont'd)
  • Climate information seasonal precipitation
    outlook
  • Energy decision when to release water for
    hydropower generation

11
3. California "Delta Breeze"
  • An important source of forecast load error
    (CalISO)
  • Big events can change load by 500 MW (gt1 of
    total)
  • Direct cost of this power 250K/breeze day (40
    days/year 10M/year)
  • Indirect costs pushing stressed system past
    capacity when forecast is missed!

12
NO delta Breeze
Sep 25, 2002 No delta breeze winds carrying hot
air down California Central valley. Power
consumption high.
13
Delta Breeze
Sep 26, 2002 Delta breeze starts up power
consumption drops gt500 MW compared to the day
before!
14
Delta Breeze (cont'd)
  • Climate information chance of a delta breeze in
    two days
  • Energy decision whether or not to fire up
    peaking plants (take a day to get going)

15
Where we could go from here
16
Climate variations
El Nino North
Pacific Oscillation (NPO)
17
affect energy
supply
demand
18
and therefore decisions.
Environment vs. Hydropower
Urban vs. Agriculture
Long term contracts vs. Spot market
19
Water-Energy interaction
Climate Forecast
Water Supply Forecast
Energy Supply Forecast
Public and Private Stakeholders
20
An Energy-Water Opportunity
21
An Energy-Water Opportunity
  • Water and power are regional issues -- need a
    broad, integrated look at the issue

22
An Energy-Water Opportunity
  • Water and power are regional issues -- need a
    broad, integrated look at the issue
  • Water and energy systems already stressed to
    their limits -- climate variations can push
    things over the edge

23
An Energy-Water Opportunity
  • Water and power are regional issues -- need a
    broad, integrated look at the issue
  • Water and energy systems already stressed to
    their limits -- climate variations can push
    things over the edge
  • The pieces to do this problem are already there
    -- but no one has brought them all together yet

24
An Energy-Water Opportunity
  • Water and power are regional issues -- need a
    broad, integrated look at the issue
  • Water and energy systems already stressed to
    their limits -- climate variations can push
    things over the edge
  • The pieces to do this problem are already there
    -- but no one has brought them all together yet
  • A project whose time has come

25
(No Transcript)
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