Electric Vehicles and their Renewable Connection How Australia Can Take Part in the Green Revolution

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Electric Vehicles and their Renewable
ConnectionHow Australia Can Take Part in the
Green Revolution
Electric cars - Now! http//www.sahkoautot.fi/eng

• Dr Andrew Simpson, ASDI Conversation Series 10
  June 2009

Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP)
Institute PB-CUSP Alliance www.sustainability.curt
in.edu.au
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Outline

• Background
• Short history of transport and energy systems
• A vision for plug-in electric-drive vehicles
  (EVs) in a new paradigm of sustainable
  communities
• Global enabling factors
• Lithium-ion batteries
• Mass-market EVs
• Smart grids
• Renewable energy
• Green stimulus packages
• Barriers and Opportunities for Australia
• How is CUSP pursuing this vision?

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Andrew Background
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20th Century Age of the combustion engine 21st Century Age of the electric vehicle
Lower population densities, large travel distances. Higher population densities, shrinking cities, falling VKT, smart growth.
Larger vehicles with high performance and long endurance. Smaller, pedestrian-friendly vehicles.
Abundant, indigenous petroleum. Peak oil and price volatility. Geo-political conflict.
Exhaust emissions soaked up by atmosphere. Car tailpipes less-smelly than horses. Urban smog and chronic health problems.
Global warming hadnt been invented yet Climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Nationalised electric grids, centralized and subsidized Privatised electric grids, traded on open markets.
Electricity provided on-demand Extreme peak demand growth, TD bottlenecks.
Dirty electricity emissions soaked up by atmosphere Mandatory targets for renewable energy
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A vision for EVs in sustainable communities
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Enabling Factor Travel Patterns
Cumulative Distribution of Daily Driving
Distances in Australia
Adelaide 98 drive less than 100km
Sydney 87 drive less than 100km
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Enabling Factor Travel Patterns
US VMT plateau in 2006, reducing since 2008
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Enabling Factor Travel Patterns
Plug-in vehicle utility is increasing as typical
driving distances reduce.
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Enabling Technology Li-Ion Batteries

• CARB expert panel (2007) High energy Li-Ion
  technology has good potential to meet all
  performance requirements of EVs with batteries of
  modest weightcell and battery technology
  designed for these applications are likely to
  also meet cycle life goals.

NB Not all Li-Ion batteries are created equal.
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Li-Ion Battery Charging and Safety

• Charging
• Li-ion battery charging rates depend on chemistry
  and anode/cathode design
• Most batteries can charge in lt60min, some
  batteries can charge in lt10min.
• Charging supply is usually the bottleneck
• Safety
• Li-ion battery safety also depends on chemistry
  and anode/cathode design
• The preferred automotive chemistry (Li-ion
  nanophosphate) is inherently safer and cannot go
  into thermal runaway.
• Monitoring/management is critical for some other
  Li-Ion chemistries

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Enabling Factor Mass-produced EVs
Chevy Volt PHEV 60km
Toyota FT-EV 80km
Mitsubishi MiEV 125km
Ford Focus EV 160km
Mini EV 240km
Mercedes BlueZERO EV 200km
NB Established car companies dont always get it
right.
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Enabling Factor New EV Companies
TH!NK City EV 180km
Aptera 2e EV 160km
Tesla Roadster EV 400km
BYD E6 EV 300km
Fisker Karma PHEV 80km
Reva EV 160km
NB There are tremendous barriers to entry for
new car companies
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EV/PHEV Production Ramp
Production gt600,000 units by 2012
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EV/PHEV Market Prices
Median price 42,000
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EVs Lower Cost of Motoring
Annual Motoring Cost Comparison Small Sedan 15,000km per Year Annual Motoring Cost Comparison Small Sedan 15,000km per Year Annual Motoring Cost Comparison Small Sedan 15,000km per Year Annual Motoring Cost Comparison Small Sedan 15,000km per Year Annual Motoring Cost Comparison Small Sedan 15,000km per Year
ICE HEV PHEV EV
Fuel cost - 1.00/L 1110 660 330 0
Fuel cost - 1.50/L 1665 990 495 0
         
Elec cost - 5c/kWh 0 0 69 139
Elec cost - 20c/kWh 0 0 278 555
         
Battery degradation1 0 0 377 583
         
Maintenance2 726 631 539 365
         
Totals low 1836 1291 1316 1087
Totals high 2391 1621 1689 1503
1 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) assumes 80 residual capacity at end of life. 1 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) assumes 80 residual capacity at end of life. 1 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) assumes 80 residual capacity at end of life. 1 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) assumes 80 residual capacity at end of life. 1 CARB Expert Panel Review of ZEV Technology (2007) assumes 80 residual capacity at end of life.
2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004) 2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004) 2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004) 2 EPRI Study of EV/PHEV Lifecycle Costs (2004)
NB Innovative business models can amortize EVs
higher upfront cost.
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No oil required for EVs
from Garnaut Review (2008)
NB No oil required for EVs energy independence
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Greenhouse Emissions
Small Sedan Platform
NB Cleaner electricity means cleaner EVs.
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Lifecycle Analysis for EVs/PHEVs
Toyota study of Prius HEV a net winner after
20,000km.
MIT study of alt. vehicle technologies EVs a
net winner compared to ICE.
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EV Recharging Infrastructure
Better Place
Toyota Industries
Elektromotive
Coulomb Technologies / Charge Point
NB Standardized EV infrastructure is essential.
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EV Battery Exchange
Better Place
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Enabling Technology Smart Grids(cars as
appliances)
Courtesy of EPRI
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EVs and Smart Grid Capacity Expansion

• The existing US electricity grid can support a
  light-duty vehicle fleet that is composed of 73
  EVs (160 million).

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (2007)
Impacts Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles on
Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids
NB No new capacity required to support
mass-market EVs, but utility-optimized charging
is preferred.
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EVs and Smart Grid Capacity Factors

• EVs can increase capacity factors with low
  marginal cost of electricity supplied.

Letendre et al (2006) Electric Hybrid Cars
New Load, or New Resource?
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EVs and Smart Grid Ancillary Services

• Ancillary services are a multi-billion-dollar
  market, and are also the most promising
  application of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology.

NB Back-feeding of power is not essential to
provide V2G services.
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EVs and Utilities

• Utilities that get it are incredibly supportive
  of EVs
• Southern California Edison (SCE)

Southern California Edison (SCE) Electric Vehicle
Technical Center SCE has operated a fleet of 320
Toyota RAV4 EVs since 1998
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EVs and Utilities

• Pacific Gas Electric (PGE)
• Special EV tariffs
• Early adopter of pre-production EVs
• Considering aftermarket for used EV batteries

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EVs and Utilities

• Xcel Energy
• Field trials with 6 Ford Escape PHEVs with smart
  charging
• Comprehensive service territory modelling with
  NREL

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EVs and Utilities

• Electricite de France (EDF)
• Prius PHEV field trials in Paris, London and
  soon, Spain

NB Many utilities are still unfamiliar with EVs.
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EVs and Smart Grid V2G Aggregators

• Emerging business opportunities for EV
  aggregators who can pool EV resources, sell V2G
  services to utilities, and provide new commercial
  models for EV ownership to consumers.

Coulomb Technologies
Project Better Place
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EVs and Smart Grid Enabling Renewables
Grid mix without EVs
Grid mix with EVs
Doubling of installed wind capacity
Short Denholm (2006) A Preliminary Assessment
of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind
Energy Markets
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Enabling Renewables Solar EV Charging
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Enabling Technology Maturing Renewables
Hunwick Consultants (2002)
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Enabling Factor Green Stimulus Packages
11B for Smart Grids, 6B for Renewables, 2B for
Plug-in Vehicles!
2B for Renewables, 1B for Green Cars, 100M for
Smart Grids!
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It might happen first in our backyard!
North Port Quay a carbon-free community
development based on renewables, smart grids and
electric vehicles.
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Barriers to EVs in sustainable communities in
Australia

• Lack of plug-in vehicles components
• Lack of plug-in infrastructure
• Lack of plug-in vehicle standards and regulations
• Misperceptions about EVs
• Market distortions due to undersupply
• Lack of green vehicle incentives
• Regulatory constraints in the utility industry
• Lack of truly smart grids
• Lack of foresight in urban planning processes

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Opportunities for EVs in sustainable communities
in Australia

• Vehicles and charging infrastructure
• components and systems
• hardware and software
• new and retrofit
• New automotive business models
• Aggregators of V2G ancillary services
• Demonstrations and pilot deployments
• New communities (green and brown-field)

Blade Electron (VIC)
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How is CUSP pursuing its vision?

• The CUSP team
• Peter Newman, Andrew Simpson, Walter James,
  Andrew Went and Peter Wolfs
• Research projects
• Potential for EVs, smart grids and renewables
  (Walter James with Western Power)
• Distribution impacts of EVs in smart grids
  (Andrew Went)
• Transmission dynamics for EVs in smart grids
  (Prof Peter Wolfs with Western Power)
• Economics of EVs (Andrew Simpson)
• Environmental benefits of EVs (team in
  conjunction with EV infrastructure provider)
• Stakeholder engagement and pilot deployments
• West Australian EV Reference Group (with UWA,
  Murdoch and CO2 Smart)
• Linking to AutoCRC and local EV conversion
  businesses for domestic EV supply
• Advisors to green urban developments e.g. North
  Port Quay and Lochiel Park

CUSP Discussion Paper Renewable Transport How
Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles using
Vehicle to Grid Technology can make Carbon Free
Urban Development http//sustainability.curtin.edu
.au/local/docs/cusp_discussion_paper.pdf
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From this
to this
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or well be stuck with this.
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Any Questions?