LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS TURKEY PART 3: EARTHQUAKES

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE
DISASTERSTURKEYPART 3 EARTHQUAKES

• Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
  Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

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TURKEY
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NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN
TURKEY
FLOODS
GOAL PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER
NRESILIENT
WILDFIRES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters

• Planet Earths heat flow causes movement of
  lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which
  causes EARTH-QUAKES

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TECTONIC PLATES
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TECTONIC PLATES
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ANATOLIAN PLATE AND NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT
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TURKEYS SEISMICITY 1900 TO PRESENT
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ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER
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ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK
RISK
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EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL
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IDENTIFY THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS
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EARTHQUAKE HAZARDSARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
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EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS

• SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND
  FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

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GROUND SHAKING
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GROUND SHAKING
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PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD
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EXPOSURE MODEL
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VULNERABILITY MODEL
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CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT
VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING
MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, OF REPLACEMENT
VALUE
INTENSITY
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CAUSES OF DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
EARTHQUAKES
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL
ELEMENTS
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A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE POTENTIAL
DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH
TURKEYS COMMUNITIES
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A DISASTER is ---

• --- the set of failures that overwhelm the
  capability of a community to respond without
  external help  when three continuums 1)  people,
  2) community (i.e., a set of habitats,
  livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3)
  complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,)
  intersect at a point in space and time.

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Disasters are caused by single- or
multiple-event natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause extreme levels of
mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness,
economic losses, or environmental impacts.
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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the
  communitys buildings and infrastructure will be
  LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the
  appropriate codes and standards.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely
  happen, not to mention the low-probability of
  occurrencehigh-probability of adverse
  consequences event.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO
  or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic
  framework for early threat identification and
  coordinated local, national, regional, and
  international countermeasures.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in
  a timely and effective manner to the full
  spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency
  situations.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and
  reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from
  either the current experience or the cumulative
  prior experiences.

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ERZINCANTURKEYS WORST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
DECEMBER 26, 1939

• A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE
• 32,700 DEATHS
• M7.8

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ERZINCAN
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ERZINCAN COLLAPSE
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IZMITTURKEYS 2ND WORST EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
AUGUST 17, 1999

• A STRIKE-SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE
• 17,118 DEATHS
• M7.6

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COLLAPSES
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IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAYS PROBLEM SOFT-STOREY
BUILDINGS
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THE REASON LACK OF, OR INADEQUATE PROTECTION
(I.E., ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A MODERN
BUILDING CODE)
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THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
ISEARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
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TURKEYS COMMUNITIES
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL EARTHQUAKES
• PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND
  RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL EARTHQUAKES
• PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE
  AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS
  ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT
  FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION AND/OR
  PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL
  FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

• ALL EARTHQUAKES
• TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR
  DISASTER RESILIENCE

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EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE INEVITABLE

• ---SO, DONT WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE
  IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DIS-ASTER
  RESILIENT.

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STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER
ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER RESILIENT
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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQTS DISASTER
RESILIENCE

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING
  STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE
  UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES
• DISASTER SCENARIOS
• ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL
  FOR POLICY DECISIONS

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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQTS DISASTER
REWILIENCE

• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES
  (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQTS DISASTER
RESILIENCE

• PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS
• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC
  NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM)

• DATABASES
• SEISMIC ENGINEERING
• MAPS GROUND SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI
  WAVE RUNIP
• DISASTER SCENARIOS
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE
  UNDERWRITING)