VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE OF TURKISH EARTHQUAKES - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE OF TURKISH EARTHQUAKES

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In the case of earthquakes, vulnerability factors may be summarised as fallows: ... Turkey is a land of earthquakes because of its location. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE OF TURKISH EARTHQUAKES


1
VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT
NATURAL DISASTERS THE CASE OF TURKISH
EARTHQUAKES
  • Istanbul University, Istanbul Medical Faculty,
    Department of Public Health
  • Yakut Irmak ÖZDEN, Ayse Emel ÖNAL, Sidika Tekeli
    YESIL

2
  • For many years, public health researchers have
    directed their efforts towards health problems
    arising mainly from faulty social and economic
    structures and the importance of natural factors,
    has been to some extent neglected.
  • Of course, the impact of demographic, social and
    economic factors on nature should not be
    overlooked either. Mankind has been attempting to
    manipulate his natural environment sometimes in
    a destructive manner- according to his economic
    needs, without taking into account the new risks
    brought about by this destruction.

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  • The contribution of human made and natural
    disasters to the global disease burden is
    expected to climb from the 12th place in 1998 to
    the 8th place in 2020. The statistics gathered at
    the CRED show that in 2002, 488 natural disasters
    were reported in the world, causing the death of
    40 327 people. Furthermore, 48 708 persons were
    injured and a total of 621 331 512 were affected
    due to the consequences of natural disasters. On
    the other hand, according to WHO, by the end of
    the 20th century, the impact of natural disasters
    to the world economy reached 50 billion dollars
    annualy.
  • Accelerated changes in demographic and economic
    trends have disturbed the balance between
    ecosystems. Environmental degradation intensifies
    disasters, and increases the potential for
    secondary disasters.

7
  • At the 22nd World Congress of Architecture held
    in Istanbul last month, the participants
    unanimously declared that the lack of politics of
    development in industrialisation, urbanization
    and architecture oriented towards human welfare
    and security was much more responsible for the
    consequences of disasters than nature itself.
  • Each hazard and each geographical area has its
    own vulnerabilities and consequences. The
    severity of the toll paid at the disasters mostly
    depend on faulty economic and social
    infrastuctures of the affected community.

8
  • Disasters do not kill or strike people in the
    same way, it depends on who you are and to what
    society you belong. According to World Banks
    estimations, 97 of deaths related to natural
    disasters occur in the developing countries.

9
On the other hand, the ratio of economic loss to
GNP in those countries far exceeds the ones in
developed countries
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  • In the case of earthquakes, vulnerability factors
    may be summarised as fallows
  • -Location of settlements in seismic areas,
  • -Inadequate building practices and regulations,
  • -Dense concentration of buildings with high
    occupancy,
  • -The lack of warning systems and of public
    awareness on earthquake risks.
  • In the developing countries, the main increase in
    risk can be attributed to overcrowding, faulty
    land-use planning and construction, inadequate
    infrastructure and services and environmental
    degradation.

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  • The probability that a particular system or
    population will be affected by hazards is known
    as risk. Hence, it can be said that,
  • RiskVulnerability x Hazard
  • or, taking into account coping capacity
  • Risk VulnerabilityxHazard
  • Coping Capacity
  • -Vulnerability has always economic, social,
    organisational and educational dimensions.

14
  • Mitigation can be defined as the permanent
    reduction of the disaster risk and can be
    categorized as primary mitigation which refers
    to reducing the presence of the hazard and of the
    vulnerability, and secondary mitigation, which
    refers to reducing the impact of the hazard.
  • Preparedness covers the measures that insure
    the organized mobilization of personel, funds,
    equipment and supplies within a safe environment
    for effective relief, response can be defined
    as the set of activities implemented after the
    impact of a disaster in order to assess the
    needs, reduce the suffering, limit the spread and
    the consequences of the disaster and open the way
    to rehabilitation.

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  • Turkey is located between Europe and Asia with a
    population reaching 70 millions. The growth rate
    of the population, which was nearing 3 during
    the period 1955-1980, has been diminishing since
    and was reduced to 1.5 in the last years. The
    country has been undergoing a very rapid process
    of urbanization in the last 50 years and the
    ratio of urban popülation, which was 26 in 1950,
    had climbed to 60 by the end of the century, the
    urban population growth rate was 3.3 between
    1990-2000.

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  • Turkey is a land of earthquakes because of its
    location. There are seven main tectonic areas in
    Turkey. Nearly 96 of the country with different
    rates, is located on seismic risks areas. 66 of
    this large earthquake zone cconsists of active
    fault systems, which means that 70 of the
    population and 75 of industrial establishments
    in those regions can face with an earthquake
    anytime. Among the disasters that regularly
    strike Turkey, earthquakes have always caused the
    major share of causalties and physical damage.

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The Marmara Region is one of the highest risk
areas. Nearly one third of Turkeys population
live in this region. With the highest population
growth rate (2.8). This growth rate is mostly
due to internal migration for employment
opportunities.
22
  • This high-density population brings many problems
    with such as the increase in the number of
    buildings and settlements. The number of
    buildings in Istanbul, which was 1 378 000 in
    1984, had increased at the end of the century to
    3 393 000 with a growth rate of 146. Besides its
    demographic features, this region plays a leading
    role in the economy of the country (Its share in
    industrial GDP reaches 33.8) and an important
    part of all qualified people live here.

23
  • Unfortunately a very severe earthquake is
    expected to happen with a very high degree of
    probability within the next 30 years and its
    epicenter will be this time much closer to
    Istanbul metropolitan area.

24
Estimated Damage and Losses Due to Expected
Earthquake ( According to Credible worst
scenario)
Deaths 40 000 - 50 000
Shelter Needs 600 000 Households
Losses due to building damages 11 Billions U.S. Dollars
Damaged Buildings
Beyond Repair 40 000
Extensive Damage 70 000
Moderate Damage 200 000
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