Indicators of Climate Change in Tanzania and likely impacts on social economic development

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Indicators of Climate Change in Tanzania and
likely impacts on social economic development

• Faustine Fidelis Tilya
• Tanzania Meteorological Agency
• P O Box 3056,
• Dar es Salaam
• ftilya_at_meteo.go.tz

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• TREND ANALYSIS OF SOME CLIMATIC VARIABLES
• POSSIBLE CAUSES
• IMPACTS

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Data Methods

• Historical Climate data from TMA
• Non-parametric Spearman rank correlation
  statistics to determine the direction and
  strength of existing relationship between
  variables (Lehmann and DAbrera, 1998).

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Rainfall homogenous zones of Tanzania
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Observed Spearman Rank Correlation values
forMarch May rainfall Season
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Reduced rainfall amounts during March-May
Rainfall season
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Observed Frequency of Wet Spells Run during the
March-May (MAM_wet) and October-December
(OND_wet) Seasons at Lushoto (slopes of Usambara
Mountain)
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Increased seasonal rainfall
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Observed Spearman Rank Correlation Values for
theOctober May rainfall Season
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Enhanced rainfall amounts during October - May
Rainfall season in South Western Highlands of
Tanzania
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Reduced Frequency of Dry Spells Run during the
October May rainfall season in South Western
Highlands of Tanzania
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Decreasing trend of seasonal rainfall
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Risk of dry spells of at least 7 days at Mpanda
in western Tanzania
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Risk of dry spells of at least 10 days at Mpanda
in western Tanzania
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Risk of dry spells of at least 15 days at Mpanda
in western Tanzania
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increased number of days along Tanzanian coast
(Zanzibar) with winds greater than 5 meters per
second
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Possible causes
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Deforestation processes
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Land COVER change
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Natural Causes
February 6, 2008 - eruptive phase of Oldonyo
Lengai. Plume is estimated to rise to 12
kilometres above the ground (Gerrit Jan Plaisier
and Rob Alakopsa of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines)
January 18 2008 eruption at the Oldonyo Lengai ,
North Tanzania (Phil Celeste Benham).
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Green house gases (Ipcc reports 1-4)
www.abcnews.com/sections/us/global106.html
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Impacts
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food insecurity and exacerbated malnutrition in
Tanzania
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19of Tanzanian health spending IS on malaria
Due to escalating warming, Tanzania is
experiencing outbreaks of malaria in highland
areas where there is little experience with the
disease. Health authorities are combining climate
observations with medical research to predict
highland malaria outbreaks
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Afternoon winds are consistently stronger than
morning winds which translate into enhanced
production of damaging erosion capability
including tidal effects especially during the
period between September and December.
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Gross Poverty
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Ahsante sana