Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization Accounts in the analysis of agricultural development and food security

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Using Food Balance Sheets and Supply Utilization
Accounts in the analysis of agricultural
development and food security

• Piero Conforti
• ESA

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ESA users

• State of Food Insecurity in the World
• Agriculture Towards 20XX
• State of Food and Agriculture
• many others, for specific analyses

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high expectations

• hardly any comparable independent data source
• detailed balanced items
• large coverage (countries, products)
• time consistency
• agriculture and food security
• user-friendly access (new website)

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observable data issues

• inconsistencies (e.g. negative consumption)
• implausible feed i-o ratios
• implausible year-to-year changes (in consumption,
  production, stocks)
• large divergences from other data sources

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observable data issues
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observable data issues
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observable data issues
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observable data issues
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observable data issues
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observable data issues

• Indias poultry production in 2007
• FBS 664 th tons
• ProdStat livestock 2313 th tons
• OECD-FAO projections 2315 th tons
• Egypt undernourishment figures
• consistency with the incidence of poverty

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observable data issues
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observable data issues
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observable data issues

• could these be addressed with more
• consistency/plausibility checks
• cross-checks with existing survey data
• cross-checks with other data sources
• an informal in-house consultation mechanism to
  decide on conflicting information

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non-observable data issues

• outdated or homogeneous conversion
  factors/extraction rates (processed products,
  calories, waste)
• waste (farmgate-retail hh level details)
• data resulting from estimations and ad hoc
  computations

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non-observable data issues

• could these be addressed with more
• periodic updates of coefficients/conversion
  factors/extraction rates, through ad hoc studies
  or regular checks with other technical Divisions
• standardized estimation/interpolation procedures
  and criteria
• cross-checks with existing survey data
• cross-checks with other data sources

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other issues

• some totals and aggregated items missing
• number of products please do not reduce!
• timeliness back to the old two-year cycle?
• focal points could they manage a two-way
  information flow?
• internal pre-releases to check data?

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to conclude

• FBS/SUA are a unique and valuable resource
• it seems possible to address the issues
  highlighted
• Ideas to consider
• more cross-checks
• more exchanges with the rest of the house