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Workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems

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Title: Workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems


1
Workshop on quality control and quality assurance
of greenhouse gas inventories and the
establishment of national inventory systems
  • 2-3 september 2004
  • European Environment Agency
  • Copenhagen
  • Miet Dheer
  • Flemish Environment Agency
  • Belgium

2
Content of presentation
  • Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium
  • Audits emission inventory
  • Development quality management system and
    calculations uncertainties (Flanders)
  • Conclusions

3
Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium
  • Responsibility of 3 regions
  • Difference in means, methodologies,
  • Coordination and tuning in WG emissions of
    CCIEP
  • Interregional Environment Unit (IRCEL)
    compiling national inventory

4
Audits emission inventory GHG Oct-Dec
2002Results
  • Flemish emission inventory qualitative good
    value
  • Difference actual situation and obliged situation
    (guidelines UNFCCC) implementation IPCC GPG
  • Further improvement harmonisation 3 emission
    inventories

5
Audits emission inventory GHGOct-Dec
2002Recommendations
  • Documentation and management of data
  • Better tuning with producers EB and establish
    responsibilities
  • Guarantee of quality DAP, QA/QC plan (ISO),
    start analysis uncertainties (quantitive
    qualitive), improvement of tiers
  • Manpower and means

6
Development quality management system and
calculation uncertainties
  • Study consultancy office (Jan-May 2004)
    planning and guidance in the development and
    implementation of a quality system for the
    emission inventory of GHG and development and
    utilization of a methodology to calculate
    uncertainties

7
Development quality management system and
calculation uncertainties situation before study
consultancy office
  • Key source categories (tier 1) level and trend
    assessment
  • Intern work on quality assurance and control
  • Independant audits of the 3 regions
  • Certified ISO 9001 system for the flemish EB
  • EMAS certification and agreement of laboratories
  • Uncertainty CO2 of fossil fuel combustion and key
    sources (Flanders)

8
Development quality management system and
calculation uncertainties study consultancy
office (Jan-May 2004)
  • Planning and guidance in the development and
    implementation of a quality system for the
    emission inventory of GHG
  • Development and utilization of a methodology to
    calculate uncertainties

9
Development quality management system
  • Performance gap analyse
  • Setting up a quality structure
  • Setting up the procedures

10
Development quality management system Conclusions
GAP analyse
  • Lots of elements already operational but
    insufficient documented
  • Missing information quality handbook,
    procedures required for IPCC (and ISO),
    management review
  • Quality policy and quality objectives not yet
    available
  • Planning to measure the effectiveness of QMS
    still missing

11
Development quality management system
Quality structure


12
Development quality management system
Quality handbook
  • 1. Policy declaration
  • 2. Work area
  • 3. Quality system (quality handbook, procedures,
    judgment of system, )
  • 4. Organization and staff
  • 5. Facilities
  • 6. Orders and services to third parties
  • 7. Performance of activities
  • 8. Management of data and documents
  • 9. Reporting
  • 10. Complaines

13
Development quality management system
Procedure to fill in CRF tables main process
  • Set up a DAP
  • Collecting data
  • Input and validation data
  • Compiling data
  • Reporting and documentation

14
Development quality management system
Procedure to manage the Balance Score Card
different steps
  • Determination of the strategic policy objectives
  • Set up the strategic policy plan (BSC plan)
  • Determination of critical succes factors
  • Link strategic objectives and internal processes
  • Determination of key performance indicators (KPI)
  • Determination of criteria for KPI

15
QMS
Audits
Organisation and
Management review
management
Documents and
Records and
data
archiving
Collecting data
Input and
Compiling data
Reportingt
Fulfil
Making data
Obligations
obligation
acquisition plan
validation data
Evaluation
Correction and
Extern
prevention
Communication
Staff
Means
16
Calculation uncertainties
  • Basis of uncertainty estimates
  • Methodologie tier 1 and tier 2
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Uncertainties on level
  • Uncertainties on trend
  • Key sources
  • Conclusions

17
Calculation uncertainties Basis of uncertainty
estimates
  • measurement data
  • availability and completeness of data
  • domestic and international literature
  • expert judgement
  • interview with other experts
  • IPCC default uncertainties

Level 2001 and trend 1990-2001 CO2, CH4 and
N2O
18
Calculation uncertainties
  • Methodology tier 1 and tier 2
  • Tier 1 error propagation equations (normal
    distributions, symmetrical, uncertainty lt 100,
    handling of correlations problematic)
  • Tier 2 Monte Carlo simulation (distributions
    can have all possible shapes and widths, flexible
    handling of correlations, using a stochastic
    simulation )
  • both methods used in the study

19
Calculation uncertaintiesMonte-Carlo Simulation
  • Activity data Emission factor
    Emissions
  • Input parameters of emission calculation model
    are replaced with probability density functions
    (e.g. normal or lognormal distributions)
  • Total uncertainty is obtained taking random
    numbers from each input distribution and
    calculating the corresponding emission values
    several thousands of times to obtain the
    probability distribution of the emissions

20
Calculation uncertaintiesUncertainties on Level
(Emissions 2001)
21
Calculations uncertaintiesUncertainties on Trend
(1990 - 2001)
22
Calculation uncertaintiesKey sources for LEVEL
uncertainty (Tier 2)
23
Calculation uncertaintiesKey sources for TREND
uncertainty (Tier 2)
24
Calculation uncertaintiesConclusions
  • Total uncertainty in Flanders is rather low (- 4
    5), due to the large share of CO2 emissions
    from fossil fuel combustion, which are accurately
    known.
  • CO2 emissions are accurately known, but other
    gases contain higher uncertainties.
  • N2O emissions from Nitric acid production and
    agricultural soils dominate the uncertainty
  • CO2 emissions from Other fuels (Naphtha) in
    Chemical industry and Liquid fuels in Other
    sectors (Residential, Commercial, ) are other
    factors most affecting uncertainty

25
Overall conclusions
  • Conducted study Flanders first step
  • Other regions Tier 1 uncertainty calculation
    and EMAS certification (ISO 9001 foreseen) in
    Wallonia
  • Next step full implementation (Flanders
    Wallonia Brussels)
  • Objective first official publication results
    April 2005
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