Workshop on quality control and quality assurance of greenhouse gas inventories and the establishment of national inventory systems

1
Workshop on quality control and quality assurance
of greenhouse gas inventories and the
establishment of national inventory systems

• 2-3 september 2004
• European Environment Agency
• Copenhagen
• Miet Dheer
• Flemish Environment Agency
• Belgium

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Content of presentation

• Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium
• Audits emission inventory
• Development quality management system and
  calculations uncertainties (Flanders)
• Conclusions

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Air emission inventory system GHG in Belgium

• Responsibility of 3 regions
• Difference in means, methodologies,
• Coordination and tuning in WG emissions of
  CCIEP
• Interregional Environment Unit (IRCEL)
  compiling national inventory

4
Audits emission inventory GHG Oct-Dec
2002Results

• Flemish emission inventory qualitative good
  value
• Difference actual situation and obliged situation
  (guidelines UNFCCC) implementation IPCC GPG
• Further improvement harmonisation 3 emission
  inventories

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Audits emission inventory GHGOct-Dec
2002Recommendations

• Documentation and management of data
• Better tuning with producers EB and establish
  responsibilities
• Guarantee of quality DAP, QA/QC plan (ISO),
  start analysis uncertainties (quantitive
  qualitive), improvement of tiers
• Manpower and means

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Development quality management system and
calculation uncertainties

• Study consultancy office (Jan-May 2004)
  planning and guidance in the development and
  implementation of a quality system for the
  emission inventory of GHG and development and
  utilization of a methodology to calculate
  uncertainties

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Development quality management system and
calculation uncertainties situation before study
consultancy office

• Key source categories (tier 1) level and trend
  assessment
• Intern work on quality assurance and control
• Independant audits of the 3 regions
• Certified ISO 9001 system for the flemish EB
• EMAS certification and agreement of laboratories
• Uncertainty CO2 of fossil fuel combustion and key
  sources (Flanders)

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Development quality management system and
calculation uncertainties study consultancy
office (Jan-May 2004)

• Planning and guidance in the development and
  implementation of a quality system for the
  emission inventory of GHG
• Development and utilization of a methodology to
  calculate uncertainties

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Development quality management system

• Performance gap analyse
• Setting up a quality structure
• Setting up the procedures

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Development quality management system Conclusions
GAP analyse

• Lots of elements already operational but
  insufficient documented
• Missing information quality handbook,
  procedures required for IPCC (and ISO),
  management review
• Quality policy and quality objectives not yet
  available
• Planning to measure the effectiveness of QMS
  still missing

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Development quality management system
Quality structure


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Development quality management system
Quality handbook

• 1. Policy declaration
• 2. Work area
• 3. Quality system (quality handbook, procedures,
  judgment of system, )
• 4. Organization and staff
• 5. Facilities
• 6. Orders and services to third parties
• 7. Performance of activities
• 8. Management of data and documents
• 9. Reporting
• 10. Complaines

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Development quality management system
Procedure to fill in CRF tables main process

• Set up a DAP
• Collecting data
• Input and validation data
• Compiling data
• Reporting and documentation

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Development quality management system
Procedure to manage the Balance Score Card
different steps

• Determination of the strategic policy objectives
• Set up the strategic policy plan (BSC plan)
• Determination of critical succes factors
• Link strategic objectives and internal processes
• Determination of key performance indicators (KPI)
• Determination of criteria for KPI

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QMS
Audits
Organisation and
Management review
management
Documents and
Records and
data
archiving
Collecting data
Input and
Compiling data
Reportingt
Fulfil
Making data
Obligations
obligation
acquisition plan
validation data
Evaluation
Correction and
Extern
prevention
Communication
Staff
Means
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Calculation uncertainties

• Basis of uncertainty estimates
• Methodologie tier 1 and tier 2
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Uncertainties on level
• Uncertainties on trend
• Key sources
• Conclusions

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Calculation uncertainties Basis of uncertainty
estimates

• measurement data
• availability and completeness of data
• domestic and international literature
• expert judgement
• interview with other experts
• IPCC default uncertainties

Level 2001 and trend 1990-2001 CO2, CH4 and
N2O
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Calculation uncertainties

• Methodology tier 1 and tier 2
• Tier 1 error propagation equations (normal
  distributions, symmetrical, uncertainty lt 100,
  handling of correlations problematic)
• Tier 2 Monte Carlo simulation (distributions
  can have all possible shapes and widths, flexible
  handling of correlations, using a stochastic
  simulation )
• both methods used in the study

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Calculation uncertaintiesMonte-Carlo Simulation

• Activity data Emission factor
  Emissions

• Input parameters of emission calculation model
  are replaced with probability density functions
  (e.g. normal or lognormal distributions)
• Total uncertainty is obtained taking random
  numbers from each input distribution and
  calculating the corresponding emission values
  several thousands of times to obtain the
  probability distribution of the emissions

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Calculation uncertaintiesUncertainties on Level
(Emissions 2001)
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Calculations uncertaintiesUncertainties on Trend
(1990 - 2001)
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Calculation uncertaintiesKey sources for LEVEL
uncertainty (Tier 2)
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Calculation uncertaintiesKey sources for TREND
uncertainty (Tier 2)
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Calculation uncertaintiesConclusions

• Total uncertainty in Flanders is rather low (- 4
  5), due to the large share of CO2 emissions
  from fossil fuel combustion, which are accurately
  known.
• CO2 emissions are accurately known, but other
  gases contain higher uncertainties.
• N2O emissions from Nitric acid production and
  agricultural soils dominate the uncertainty
• CO2 emissions from Other fuels (Naphtha) in
  Chemical industry and Liquid fuels in Other
  sectors (Residential, Commercial, ) are other
  factors most affecting uncertainty

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Overall conclusions

• Conducted study Flanders first step
• Other regions Tier 1 uncertainty calculation
  and EMAS certification (ISO 9001 foreseen) in
  Wallonia
• Next step full implementation (Flanders
  Wallonia Brussels)
• Objective first official publication results
  April 2005