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CGE Greenhouse Gas Inventory Hands-on Training Workshop LAND-USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY SECTOR (LUCF)


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Title: CGE Greenhouse Gas Inventory Hands-on Training Workshop LAND-USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY SECTOR (LUCF)

CGE Greenhouse Gas Inventory Hands-on Training
  • IPCC 1996 Guideline
  • IPCC guidelines used by gt131 NAI Parties to
    prepare National Communications.
  • New UNFCCC guidelines adopted at COP8 (17/CP.8)
  • Review and synthesis of NAI inventories
    highlighted several difficulties and limitations
    of using IPCC 1996GL (FCCC/SBSTA/2003/INF.10)
  • GPG2000 and GPG2003 have addressed some of the
    limitations and provided guidance for reducing
  • IPCC, 2006 Guideline for GHG inventory has been
    accepted by IPCC Panel and COP will decide about
    its application
  • IPCC, 2006 for land-based sectors is based on GPG

LUCF sector related issues for African region
  • LUCF sector is critical for most African
    countries, given low energy consumption
  • Many countries have large area under forests and
    grassland plus presence of Savannah
  • IPCC, 1996 GL not consistent in representing
    Savannah land and other land categories
  • Large dependence on forests for fuelwood
  • Occurrence of Forest conversion to cropland
    other categories
  • Majority of countries having data limitations
  • Land use statistics / Activity Data
  • Emission / Removal factor

(No Transcript)
Forest Conversion/Loss in Africa (ha)
6 of the top 10 countries experiencing forest
conversion/loss are from Africa
Sudan 589,000
Zambia 445,000
Tanzania 412,000
Nigeria 410,000
Congo 319,000
Zimbabwe 313,000
GHG Emissions Africa (Gg)
(No Transcript)
Purpose of the Presentation
  • GHG inventory in biological sectors such as LUCF
    is characterized by
  • methodological limitations
  • lack of data or low reliability of existing data
  • high uncertainty

Problems Addressed and Approach
  • The presentation addresses many of the problems
    encountered by NAI experts in using IPCC 1996GL
  • Problems are reviewed and categorized into
    methodological issues, AD, EF/RF, uncertainty
  • Consider African region related LUCF inventory
  • Approach adopted includes
  • GPG2003 approach
  • Strategies for improvement in methodology, AD and
  • GPG2003 strategy for AD and EF/RF 3-Tier
  • Sources of data for AD and EF/RF, including EFDB

Organization of the Presentation
  • IPCC 1996GL and GPG2003 Approach and Steps
  • Key source/sink category analysis and decision
    trees GPG2003
  • Reporting framework for LUCF sector -IPCC
  • Choice of methods Tier structure and Features
  • Review of the problems encountered in using IPCC
    1996GL and how these are addressed in GPG2003
  • Methodological issues
  • Activity data (AD)
  • Emission/removal factors (EF/RF)
  • IPCC 1996GL category-wise assessment of problems
    and GPG2003 options to address them
  • Review and assessment of AD and EF/RF data
    status and options
  • Uncertainty estimation and reduction and EFDB

Background Resources
  • Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National
    Greenhouse Gas Inventories
  • http//
  • GPG2000 Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
    Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
  • http//
  • GPG2003 Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,
    Land-Use Change and Forestry
  • http//
  • EFDB Emissions Factor Database
  • http//
  • IPCC Inventory Software Revised 1996 IPCC
    Guidelines Software for the Workbook
  • http//
  • Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)
  • http//
  • Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological
    Advice (SBSTA)
  • http//

Definition of Key Terms
  • LUCF (Land-Use Change and Forestry) Land use is
    the type of activity being carried out on a unit
    of land, such as forest land, cropland and
    grassland. The IPCC 1996GL refers to sources and
    sinks associated with GHG emissions/removals from
    human activities, which
  • Change the way land is used (e.g., clearing of
    forest for agriculture, conversion of grassland
    to forest)
  • Affect the amount of biomass in existing biomass
    stocks (e.g., forest, village trees, savanna) and
    soil carbon stocks
  • LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry)
    This includes GHG emissions/removals resulting
    from managed land (involving no change in use,
    such as forest remaining forest land) and
    land-use changes (involving changes in land-use,
    such as grassland converted to forest land or
    forest land converted to cropland).

  • Source Any process or activity that releases a
    GHG (such as CO2 and CH4) into the atmosphere. A
    carbon pool can be a source of carbon to the
    atmosphere if less carbon is flowing into it than
    is flowing out of it.
  • Sink Any process, activity or mechanism that
    removes a GHG from the atmosphere. A given pool
    can be a sink for atmospheric carbon if during a
    given time interval more carbon is flowing into
    it than is flowing out of it.

  • Activity data Data on the magnitude of human
    activity, resulting in emissions/removals taking
    place during a given period of time (e.g., data
    on land area, management systems, lime and
    fertilizer use).
  • Emission factor A coefficient that relates the
    activity data to the amount of chemical compound,
    which is the source of later emissions.
    Emission/removal factors are often based on a
    sample of measurement data, averaged to develop a
    representative rate of emission or removal for a
    given activity level under a given set of
    operating conditions.
  • Removal factor Rate at which carbon is taken up
    from the atmosphere by a terrestrial system and
    sequestered in biomass and soil.

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines
Default Categories in IPCC 1996GL
  • 5A. Changes in forest and other woody biomass
    stocks due to
  • commercial management
  • harvest of industrial roundwood (logs) and
  • establishment and operation of forest plantations
  • planting of trees in urban, village and
    non-forest locations
  • 5B. Forest and grassland conversion
  • the conversion of forests and grassland to
    pasture, cropland etc. can significantly change
    C-stocks in vegetation and soil
  • 5C. Abandonment of cropland, pasture, plantation
    forests, or other managed lands
  • 5D. CO2 emissions and removals from soils
  • cultivation of mineral soils
  • cultivation of organic soils
  • liming of agricultural soils

Steps in Preparing Inventory Using IPCC 1996GL
  • Step 1 IPCC 1996GL does not provide key category
    analysis approach. However, inventory experts are
    encouraged to conduct key category analysis using
    GPG2003 approach. Estimate the share of LUCF
    sector to national GHG inventory
  • Step 2 Select the land-use categories
    (forest/plantations), vegetation types subjected
    to conversion (forest and grassland), changes in
    land-use/management systems (for soil carbon
  • Step 3 Assemble required AD, depending on tier
    selected, from local, regional, national and
    global databases, including EFDB

Steps (IPCC 1996GL)
  • Step 4 Collect EF/RF, depending on tier level
    selected, from local/regional/national/global
    databases, including EFDB
  • Step 5 Estimate GHG emissions and removals
  • Step 6 Estimate uncertainty involved
  • Step 7 Report GHG emissions/removals
  • Step 8 Report all procedures, equations and
    sources of data adopted for GHG inventory

GPG2003 LULUCF Land-use Categories and Methods
  • GPG2003 adopted two major advances over IPCC
    1996GL, namely
  • Three hierarchical tiers of methods
  • they range from use of default data and simple
    equations to use of country-specific data and
    models to accommodate national circumstances
  • Land-use-category-based approach for organizing
  • land-use categories Adopted six land categories
    to ensure consistent representation, covering all
    geographic areas of a country.
  • Forest land, cropland, grassland, wetland,
    settlements and others
  • Each land-use category is further disaggregated
    to reflect the past and the current land use
  • Forest land remaining forest land
  • Lands converted to forest land

CO2 Pools, Non-CO2 Gases and Sources of Non-CO2
  • CO2 emissions and removal are estimated for all
    the C-pools namely
  • Above-ground biomass
  • Below-ground biomass
  • Soil carbon
  • Dead organic matter and woody litter
  • Non-CO2 gases estimated include
  • CH4, N2O, CO and NOx
  • Sources of non-CO2 gases
  • N2O and CH4 from forest fires
  • N2O from managed (fertilized) forests
  • N2O from drainage of forest soils
  • N2O and CH4 from managed wetland
  • Soil emissions of N2O from land-use conversion

Broad Approach and Steps in Adopting GPG2003
  • Accounts for all land-use categories and
    sub-categories, all carbon pools and non-CO2
    gases, depending on key source/sink category
  • Select nationally adopted land-use classification
    system (categories and sub-categories) for
    inventory estimation. Each land category is
    further subdivided into
  • land remaining in the same category (e.g. forest
    land remaining forest land)
  • other land category converted to this land
    category (e.g. grassland converted to forest
  • Select appropriate land classification system
    most relevant to country
  • Conduct key source/sink category analysis to
    identify the key
  • land categories and sub-categories
  • non-CO2 gases
  • carbon pools

Steps to Adopting GPG
  • Select appropriate tier level for key land
    categories and sub-categories, non-CO2 gases and
    carbon pools, based on key category analysis as
    well as resources available for the inventory
  • Assemble required AD, depending on tier selected,
    from regional, national and global databases
  • Collect EF/RF, depending on tier selected, from
    regional, national and global databases, forest
    inventories, national greenhouse gas inventory
    studies, field experiments and surveys and use of
  • Select method of estimation (equations), based on
    tier level selected, quantify emissions/removals
    for each land-use category, carbon pool and
    non-CO2 gas. Adopt default worksheet provided in
  • Estimate uncertainty
  • Adopt QA/QC procedures and report results
  • Report GHG emissions and removals using the
    reporting tables
  • Document and archive all information used

Features of Land Category Based Approach Forest
  • Estimates carbon stock changes and GHG
    emissions/removals associated with changes in
    biomass and soil organic carbon on forest land
    and lands converted to forest land
  • Forest land remaining forest
  • Land converted to forest
  • Provides methodology for five carbon pools
  • Links biomass and soil carbon pools for the same
    land areas (at higher tiers)

Features of Land Category Based Approach
  • Provides methods for estimating carbon stock
    changes in living biomass, mineral soils and in
    organic soils
  • Provides methods for estimating annual N2O
    emissions from mineral soils due to addition of N
    (in the form of fertilizer, manure and crop
    residue) and N released by soil organic matter
  • These categories are estimated and reported in
    agriculture sector in IPCC 1996GL

Features of Land Category Based Approach
Grassland / Savannah
  • Savannah / grassland are very critical for many
    African countries
  • Provides methodology for estimating carbon stock
    changes in living biomass and soils in grassland
    and lands converted to grassland
  • Estimates annual change in carbon stocks in
    living biomass and soil carbon (mineral soils and
    cultivated organic soils) in grassland remaining
    grassland and lands converted to grassland
  • Provides methodology for estimating non-CO2
    emissions from vegetation fires based on area of
    grassland burnt, mass of available fuel,
    combustion efficiency and emission factor for
    each GHG from grassland remaining grassland and
    land converted to grassland

Features of Land Category Based Approach
  • The GHGs estimated include CO2, CH4 and N2O
  • Methodology for estimating GHGs for wetlands
    remaining wetlands is given in the Appendix and
    for GHGs from lands converted to wetlands in
    the main text
  • Estimates changes in carbon stocks in lands
    converted to wetlands due to peat extraction and
    land converted to flooded land
  • Estimates N2O emissions from peatland drainage
    and flooded land and CH4 emissions from flooded

Features of Land Category Based Approach
Settlements and Other Land
  • Settlements
  • Provides methodology for estimating CO2 emissions
    and removals for lands converted to settlements
    and methodology is given in Appendix for
    settlements remaining settlements
  • Methods for estimating Annual change in carbon
    stocks in living biomass in forest lands
    converted to settlements based on area of land
    converted and carbon stock in living biomass
    immediately before and after conversion to
  •  Other land
  • Changes in carbon stocks and non-CO2
    emissions/removals need not be assessed for
    category of other land remaining other land
  • Methodology provided for estimating annual change
    in carbon stocks in land converted to other
    land based on estimates of change in carbon
    stocks in living biomass and SOC

Key Source/Sink Category Analysis
  • One that is prioritized within national
    inventory system because its estimate has
    significant influence on a countrys total
    inventory of direct GHGs in terms of absolute
    level of emissions (removals), the trends in
    emissions (or removals), or both
  • A land-use system or C-pool or non-CO2 gas is
    significant if its contribution to GHG
    emissions/removals is gt2530 of overall
    national inventory or overall LUCF sector
  • The term key category is used to represent both
    sources and sinks
  • Key category analysis helps a country to achieve
    highest possible levels of certainty while using
    the limited resources available for the inventory
    process efficiently

Key Source/Sink Category Analysis GPG2003 Approach
  • GPG2003 assists Parties in identifying the key
  • land categories (e.g. forest land, cropland,
  • gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O)
  • carbon pools (living biomass, dead organic matter
    and soil organic carbon)
  • The decision trees given in GPG2003 could be
  • Decision trees at two levels of disaggregation
  • Land remaining in the same land-use category
    (e.g. forest land remaining forest land)
  • Land converted to another land-use category (e.g.
    grassland converted to forest)

Tier Structure Selection and Criteria
  • GPG2003 provides users with three methodological
    tiers for estimating GHG emissions/removal for
    each source.
  • The three tiers defined in GPG2003 nearly
    correspond to the three levels of complexity
    given in IPCC 1996GL (not referred to as tiers)
  • Tiers correspond to a progression from use of
    simple equations or methods with default data to
    country-specific data in more complex national
  • Tiers implicitly progress from least to greatest
    levels of certainty in estimates as a function
  • Methodological complexity
  • Regional specificity of model parameters
  • Spatial resolution and extent of activity data

Combination of Tiers
  • NAI experts could adopt multiple tiers in the GHG
    inventory for LULUCF sector
  • for different land-use categories
  • within a given land-use category for different
    carbon pools
  • within a carbon pool, for activity data and
    emission factor
  • Adopt higher tiers for key categories and
    wherever possible use country-specific, climatic
    region-specific emission/removal factors

Comparison Between IPCC 1996GL and GPG2003
Reporting of GHG Inventory in the LUCF Sector
Reporting of GHG Inventory in the LUCF Sector
  • IPCC 1996 guidelines
  • Categories 5A to 5b
  • Issues relevant to Ad EF

Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass Stocks
  • Worksheet 5.1

  • Step 1 Estimate total biomass carbon uptake by
    using area under different plantations/forests
    (AD) and annual biomass growth rate (removal
  • Step 2 Estimate total biomass consumption by
    adding commercial harvest, fuelwood consumption
    and other wood use
  • Step 3 Estimate the net carbon uptake or release
    by deducting the consumption or loss from total
    biomass carbon uptake

Methodological Issues or Problems, Relevant to 5A
  • Lack of compatibility of IPCC land/forest
    category/vegetation types/systems/formats and
    national circumstances or classification of
  • Lack of clarity for reporting estimates of
    emissions/removals in managed natural forest
  • Lack of consistency in estimating/reporting total
    biomass or only above-ground biomass
  • Methods for below-ground biomass not provided in
    default approach
  • Estimation (or differentiation) of managed
    (anthropogenically impacted) and natural forests
  • Lack of methods for incorporating non-forest
    areas, such as coffee, tea, coconut, cashew nut
  • Carbon pools There are five carbon pools. The
    default method of IPCC 1996GL
  • Estimates only the living biomass (above-ground
    biomass) because below-ground biomass stock is
    assumed to remain stable
  • Assumes dead biomass stock to remain unchanged

Issues Relating to AD and EF, Relevant to 5A
  • Lack of availability of disaggregated data
  • Lack of data on non-forest/fruit trees
  • Lack of data on biomass/fuelwood/charcoal
    consumption data
  • Lack of data on biomass growth rate for different
    vegetation types

Approach to Addressing Issues Relating to
Activity Data for LUCF Category 5A
Approach to Addressing Issues Relating to
Activity Data
Emission/Removal Factors
  • The key emission/removal factors include
  • annual biomass growth rate, carbon fraction of
    dry matter, biomass expansion ratio
  • Biomass Expansion Ratios (BERs) as given in IPCC
    1996GL are required to convert commercial
    roundwood harvested biomass (in m3) to total
    above-ground biomass (in tonnes)
  • Similarly, AGBBGB ratio is required to estimate
    BGB using data on AGB and the conversion ratio,
    according to GPG2003.
  • Combining tiers Inventory experts could adopt
    different tiers for different emission factors

Approach to Addressing Issues Relating to
Emission/Removal Factors
Sources of AD
Sources of EF/RF
(No Transcript)
Forest and Grassland Conversion (5B)
  • Worksheet 5.2

Steps for 5B
  • Step 1 Estimate annual loss of biomass due to
  • Step 2 Estimate quantity of carbon released from
    fraction of biomass burnt on-site
  • Step 3 Estimate quantity of carbon released from
    fraction of biomass burnt off-site
  • Step 4 Estimate carbon released from decay of
    above-ground biomass
  • Step 5 Estimate total annual CO2 release from
    burning and decay of biomass, resulting from
    forest and grassland conversion

Issues in Estimating CO2 Emissions from Biomass
Forest and Grassland Conversion
  • Lack of compatibility between IPCC 1996GL
    vegetation types and national circumstances or
  • Absence of forest and grassland conversion data
    for the inventory year as well as the 10-year
  • Lack of methods for savanna/grassland burning
  • Lack of disaggregated activity data on biomass
    stock before and after conversion
  • Lack of clarity on fraction of biomass burnt
    on-site, off-site and left to decay
  • Biomass burnt for energy is reported in the
    energy sector

Approach for Addressing Issues Relating to
Activity Data
Approach for Addressing Issues Relating to
Emission Factors
Approach to Emission Factors
Sources of AD
Sources of EF
Abandonment of Managed Lands
  • Worksheet 5C

Estimation Procedure
  • Step 1 Estimate the annual carbon uptake in
    above-ground biomass, using the area abandoned
    (during the previous 20 years) and annual biomass
  • Step 2 Estimate the total carbon uptake from
    area abandoned (during 20100 years) and annual
    growth rate
  • Step 3 Estimate the total C-uptake from
    abandoned land (Step 1 Step 2)

Issues in Estimating CO2 Uptake from Abandonment
of Managed Lands
  • Lack of compatibility between vegetation types
    given in IPCC 1996GL and national classification
    for abandoned land
  • Lack of methods to identify managed land
    abandoned and regenerating
  • according to different vegetation types
  • for the past 20 years and 20100 years
  • Absence of annual data for above-ground biomass
    growth for abandoned land
  • according to different vegetation types
  • for the past 20 years and 20100 years

Approach to Addressing Issues Relating to
Activity Data and Sources of Data
Approach to Addressing Issues Relating to Removal
Factor and Source of Data
CO2 Emissions and Removals from Soils
  • 5D and Worksheet 5-5

Steps for 5D
  • Step 1 Changes in soil carbon for mineral soils
  • Step 2 Carbon emissions from intensively managed
    organic soils
  • Step 3 Carbon emissions from liming of
    agricultural soils

Issues in Estimating CO2 Emissions/Removals from
Abandonment of Managed Lands
  • Absence of linkage between biomass carbon and
    soil carbon for different land categories or
    vegetation types
  • Ambiguity in classification of land-use and
    management systems, and soil types
  • Absence of activity data on land area under
    different conditions
  • land-use/management systems
  • soil type
  • for periods t (inventory year), and t-20
  • intensively managed organic soils
  • Absence of emission factors such as soil carbon
    in mineral soils and annual loss rate of carbon
    in managed organic soils

Approach to Addressing Issues Relating to
Activity Data
Approach to Addressing
Approach to Addressing Issues Relating to
Emission/Removal Factors
Approach to Addressing
Sources of Activity Data
Sources of Emission/Removal Factors
Other Categories
  • Harvested wood products (HWP), wetlands and other
  • Default assumption of IPCC 1996GL is that
  • carbon removed in wood and other biomass from
    forests is oxidized in the year of harvest
  • Countries may report on HWP pools, if they can
    document that existing stocks of forest products
    are in fact increasing
  • GPG2003-Appendix provides guidance on
    methodological issues for accounting emissions
    and removals from HWP

Uncertainty Estimation and Reduction
  • The good practice approach requires that
    estimates of GHG inventories be accurate
  • They should neither be over- nor underestimated
    as far as can be judged
  • Causes of uncertainty could include
  • unidentified sources and sinks
  • lack of data
  • quality of data
  • lack of transparency

Uncertainty Analysis
  • Uncertainty analysis involves
  • Identifying types of uncertainties
  • measurement error, lack of data, sampling error,
    missing data, model limitations, etc.
  • Methods for reducing uncertainties
  • improving representativeness, using precise
    measurement methods, correct statistical
    sampling, etc.
  • Quantifying uncertainties
  • sources of data and information, techniques for
    quantifying uncertainty
  • Methods to combine uncertainties (simple
    propagation of errors and Monte Carlo analysis)
  • Estimates of C-stock changes, emissions and
    removals arising from LUCF activities have
    uncertainties associated with
  • Area related and other activity data, biomass
    growth rates, expansion factors, biomass loss or
    consumption, soil carbon density, etc.

Methods of Estimating and Combining Uncertainties
  • Two methods
  • Simple propagation of errors (Tier 1)
  • Monte Carlo analysis (Tier 2)
  • Use of either Tier 1 or Tier 2 provides insight
    into how individual categories and GHGs
    contribute to uncertainty in total emissions in a
    given year
  • Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods of assessment of
    uncertainty are different from methods or Tiers
    (1 to 3) of inventory estimation.
  • Tier 1 methods
  • Uncertainty associated is high as suitability of
    available default parameters to a countrys
    circumstances is not known
  • Application of default data in a country or
    region that has different characteristics from
    those of the source of data leads to large
    systematic errors

Methods of Estimating (Tier 2)
  • Country-specific data are used
  • Data often only broadly defined
  • with very little stratification according to
    climate/management/soil/land use
  • Possible to assess uncertainties involved due to
    the national circumstances, based on a few
    national-level studies or direct measurements
  • Uncertainty is moderate compared to Tier 1
  • Statistical packages are readily available for
    adopting Monte Carlo algorithm

Quality Assurance and Quality Control
  • Quality Control or QC is a system of routine
    technical activities to measure and control the
    quality of inventory as it is being developed
  • It is designed to
  • Provide routine and consistent checks to ensure
    data integrity, correctness and completeness
  • Identify and address errors and omissions
  • Document and archive inventory material and
    record all QC activities
  • Quality Assurance or QA is a planned system of
    review procedures conducted by personnel not
    directly involved in the inventory
    compilation/development process

Conclusions and Strategy for the Future
  • NAI experts and compilation and synthesis reports
    by UNFCCC have identified a number of issues and
    problems in using IPCC 1996GL, including
  • Lack of clarity in the methods and inadequacies
    of the methods
  • Lack of AD and EF
  • Low quality or reliability of AD and EF
  • High uncertainty of AD and EF, leading to
    uncertainty in inventory estimates
  • Non-suitability

Region specific limitations
  • LUCF sector is very important for Africa
  • Many countries in Africa have serious limitations
    on availability and access to
  • AD and EF
  • Remote sensing and Satellite imagery data
  • There is a need for regional effort to address EF
  • Regional level forest or plantation type specific
    EF may need to be developed
  • West and Central Africa, North Africa, Eastern
    Southern Africa, etc

GPG2003 Approach
  • GPG2003 meant to overcome some of the
    methodological issues/problems identified in
    using IPCC 1996GL
  • Suggests methods to reduce uncertainty
  • Suggests an improved land category and full
    carbon (and non-CO2 gases) estimation based
    approach and methods
  • Adoption of GPG2003 approach will lead to
  • full and consistent representation, consideration
    and reporting of all land categories
  • full carbon (all 5 C-pools) estimation
  • reduced uncertainty
  • efficient use of limited inventory resources