Pertemuan 14 NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN, INVESTASI ASING

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Pertemuan 14NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN,
INVESTASI ASING KEUANGAN INTERNASIONAL
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The Balance of Payments Account

• General considerations
• A hypothetical illustration deficits and debts

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HUTANG LN

• Transfer outflow cicilan bunga (To)
• Transfer inflow bantuan/pinjaman baru (Ti)
• Net tranfer (NT) Ti To
• Th 81 NT NSB ke NM US35,1M (aliran ke NSB)
• Th 86 NT NSB Vs NM -US30,7M

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Third World Debt Crisis
Net capital inflow, FN, is
(14.1)
Basic transfer, BT, is
(14.2)
Where d is percent increase in total debt D is
total debt r is the average interest rate
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PENYEBAB NEGATIF NET TRANFER

• Cicilan dan bunga pinjaman
• Capital flight (-)
• Foreign direct investment
• Bantuan LN
• Hibah multirateral

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PENANAMAN MODAL ASING PERSH MULTINASIONAL

• Two sources
• Private direct and portfolio investment
• Public and private development assistance
• AS paling banyak persh raksasa, diikuti jepang,
  jerman, Inggris, Prancis, Korsel
• Di NSB awalnya pada industri ekstraktif dan
  primer minyak bumi, logam, perkebunan

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Multinational Corporations Size, Patterns, and
Trends

• MNCs are typically very large
• Private foreign investment pro dan contra for
  development

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Pendukung Investasi Asing

• mengisi kesenjangan Invest-tabungan (saving gap)
  (model Harrod-Domar) G s/k (s tabungan g
  pertumbuhan output/GNP, k rasio modal-output)
• Kesenjangan devisa (Trade gap)
• Mengisi gap pajak-RAPBN
• Gap manajemen, teknologi, kewiraswastaan dg
  investor asing

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Penentang PMA

• Alasan ekonomi menghalangi perluasan persh DN
  mempertinggi impor barang setengah jadi
  fasilitas PMA berlebihan mengurangi penerimaan
  pajak, ketrampilan asing yg ditularkan kecil
• Filosofis, ideologis ketidakmerataan makin
  tinggi, mendorong konsumsi mewah, dg teknologi
  tinggi (tdk menyerap TK), SD DN dialokasikan pada
  proyek yg kurang profitable, kekuatan MNA
  pengaruhi kebijakan, menekan semangat wiraswasta
  lokal menyuap pejabat (korupsi tinggi)

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Foreign Aid The Development Assistance Debate

• Conceptual and measurement problems
• Amounts and allocations public aid
• Why donors give aid

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BANTUAN LUAR NEGERI

• Tujuan bantuan non-komersial
• Syarat konsesional suku bunga dan jangka waktu
  pengembalian lunak
• Hibah harus dibedakan dengan pinjaman
• Bantuan dg syarat, utk membeli barang2 negara
  donor atau utk proyek tertentu (irigasi,
  penghijauan dlsb) mengurangi kadar bantuan
• Nilai nominal dibedakan dgn riil (inflasi)

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Motivasi negara donor memberi bantuan

• Politik Amerika membantu eropa (marshall plan)
  utk mencegah komunis
• Ekonomi kesenjangan tabungan dan kesenjangan
  devisa
• SD produktif (TK) berlebih devisa utk impor
  barang investasi
• SD produktif kurang, devisa utk impor barang
  konsumsi mewah, memicu inflasi

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Foreign Aid The Development Assistance Debate
The two-gap model savings constraint
Where I is domestic investment F is the amount
of capital inflows s is the savings rate Y is
national income
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Foreign Aid The Development Assistance Debate
The two-gap model foreign-exchange constraint
Where I is domestic investment F is the amount
of capital inflows E is the level of
exports Y is national income m1 is the
marginal import share m2 is the marginal
propensity to import
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Mengapa NSB menerima bantuan donor

• Menerima pendapat ekonom mengatasi kelangkaan
  ekonomi, membantu transformasi ekonomi scr
  struktural, mendukung utk tinggal landas ke
  ekonomi mandiri.
• Alasan politik bantuan uang, militer
• Moral NM punya kewajiban membantu NSB krn pernah
  menjajah

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Effek bantuan LN

• Substitusi thd investasi dan tabungan
  (memperburuk tabungan)
• Memperburuk neraca pembayaran
• Lebih ke sektor modern, memperlebar jurang
  kaya-miskin, sektor modern-tradisionil

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Conclusions Toward a New View of Foreign Aid

• Dissatisfaction among donors and recipients may
  create the possibility for new aid arrangements
• Future aid is likely to be linked to market
  reforms and institutional capacity-building

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Concepts for Review

• Debt-for-equity swaps
• Debt-for-nature swaps
• Debtors cartel
• Debt repudiation
• Debt service
• Deficit
• Euro
• External debt

• Amortization
• Balance of payments
• Basic transfer
• Brady plan
• Capital account
• Cash account
• Conditionality
• Current account

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Concepts for Review, contd

• Hard currency
• International reserve account
• International reserves
• Macroeconomic instability
• Restructuring

• Special drawing rights (SDRs)
• Stabilization policies
• Structural adjustment loans
• Surplus

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Concepts for Review, contd

• Absorptive capacity
• Aid weariness
• Concessional terms
• Economic transition
• Emerging-country stock markets
• Foreign aid
• Foreign direct investment (FDI)

• Foreign-exchange gap
• Global factories
• Multinational corporation (MNC)
• Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)
• Official development assistance (ODA)

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Concepts for Review, contd

• Portfolio investment
• Productive resources
• Savings gap

• Technical assistance
• Tied aid
• Transfer pricing
• Two-gap model