Antonella Sanna(2), E. Scoccimarro(1), S. Gualdi(1,2), A. Bellucci(2), M. Montesarchio(2), E. Bucchignani(2,3), A. Navarra(1,2)

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EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION
CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
(Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE

• Antonella Sanna(2), E. Scoccimarro(1), S.
  Gualdi(1,2), A. Bellucci(2), M. Montesarchio(2),
  E. Bucchignani(2,3), A. Navarra(1,2)
• (1)INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e
  Vulcanologia (National Institute for Geophysics
  and Volcanology), Bologna, Italy
• (2)CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i
  Cambiamenti Climatici (Euro-Mediterranean Centre
  for Climate Change), Bologna, Italy
• (3)CIRA - Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali

International Conference on Fire Behavior and
Risk Alghero, 5 October 2011
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STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION
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• Brief models description
• Indexes definition
• Examples of results
• Model verification

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• MODELS DESCRIPTION

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CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC the global model
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GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE MODEL
(historicalsresa1b prescribed gases and
aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 80 km and 31 vert.
levels
Roeckner et al. (2003)
Heat, Water and Momentum Flux
Heat, Water and Momentum Flux
SST
SST and Sea-ice
T, S,u, v, ?
Coupling between atmosphere and oceans every 2
hours Coupling between global ocean and
Mediterranean Sea every 8 hours
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CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC the regional model
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CMCC-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) domain. The
horizontal resolution is 14 km. The simulation is
forced using 6 hourly data from CMCC-MED over
1970-2100 period.
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DATA AVAILABILITY

1. Global model (T159, 2ox2o, 1/16)
2. Regional model 14 km
3. Both climate model simulations cover the period
   1970-2100

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• INDEXES FOR EXTREME EVENTS
• CHARACTERIZATION

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TEMPERATURE INDEXES
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5th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature
TN5P 10th Percentile of the daily minimum
temperature TN10P 95th Percentile of the
daily minimum temperature TN95P 90th
Percentile of the daily minimum temperature
TN90P Seasonal average of minimum daily
temperature MEANTN 5th Percentile of the
daily maximum temperature TX5P 10th
Percentile of the daily maximum temperature
TX10P 95th Percentile of the daily maximum
temperature TX95P 90th Percentile of the
daily maximum temperature TX90P Seasonal
average of maximum daily temperature MEANTX T
otal number of consecutive days with maximum
daily temperature exceeding the long term
(1971-2100) 90th percentile WSDI90 Total
number of consecutive days with minimum
daily temperature is below the long term
(1971-2100) 10th percentile CSDI10
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PRECIPITATION INDEXES
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95th Percentile of the total daily precipitation
PREC95P 90th Percentile of the total daily
precipitation PREC90P 5th Percentile of the
total daily precipitation PREC5P 10th
Percentile of the total daily precipitation
PREC10P Number of days with daily
precipitation exceeding the long term
(1971-2100) 90th percentile R90N Number of
days with daily precipitation exceeding the
long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile
R95N Number of days with daily precipitation
lower than the long term (1971-2100) 10th
percentile RL10N Number of days with daily
precipitation lower than the long term
(1971-2100) 5th percentile RL5N Averaged
daily precipitation over wet days (wet day
defined if precipitation is gt 1mm/day) SDII
Maximum (not total) number of consecutive dry
days (dry day defined if precipitation is lt 1
mm/day) CDD
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WIND INDEXES
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95th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed
WI95P 90th Percentile of the 10 meter wind
speed WI90P Number of days with daily wind
speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th
percentile WI90N Number of days with daily
wind speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100)
95th percentile WI95N 95th Percentile of the
10 meter maximum wind speed WIMAX95P 90th
Percentile of the 10 meter maximum wind speed
WIMAX90P Number of days with maximum wind speed
exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th
percentile WIMAX90N Number of days with
maximum wind speed exceeding the long term
(1971-2100) 95th percentile WIMAX95N
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• EXAMPLES OF RESULTS

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Example CMCC global model TX90P and trends
SUMMER SEASON
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Example CMCC global model PREC10P and trends
SUMMER SEASON
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Example CMCC global model WI90P and trends
SUMMER SEASON
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Example CMCC global model WI90N and trends
SUMMER SEASON
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• MODEL VERIFICATION

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OBSERVATIONAL DATASET SPAIN02
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• Spain02 is a new high-resolution daily
  precipitation and maximum and minimum
  temperatures gridded dataset developed for
  peninsular Spain and the Balearic islands. A
  dense network of 2500 quality-controlled
  stations (250 for temperatures) from the Spanish
  Meteorological Agency (AEMET) was selected to
  build the Spain02 grid with a regular 0.2º
  (aprox. 20 km) horizonal resolution spanning the
  period from 1950 to 2008. The gridding
  methodology used for precipitation is based on a
  two step kriging approach (binary for
  precipitation outcomes, and ordinary for
  amounts) in the case of temperatures, thin plane
  splines are fitted to the monthly data
  considering the orography (elevation) and an
  ordinary kriging was later applied to the
  residuals.

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PREC90P DJF 1971-2000
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PREC90P JJA 1971-2000
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PREC10P DJF 1971-2000
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PREC10P JJA 1971-2000
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TX90P DJF 1971-2000
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TX90P JJA 1971-2000
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TN10P DJF 1971-2000
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TN10P JJA 1971-2000
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The authors thank AEMET and UC for the data
provided for this work (Spain02 dataset)
International Conference on Fire Behavior and
Risk Alghero, 5 October 2011