Analysis of Weather Forecast Impacts on United States Air Force Combat Operations

1
Analysis of Weather Forecast Impacts on United
States Air Force Combat Operations

• Thesis Research Project by
• Major Karen Darnell, USAF
• Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)
• kmdarnel_at_nps.edu
• Advisors Prof Tom Murphree, NPS
• Col Dave Smarsh, NPS
• AFWA/CC Briefing
• 16 March 2006
• Research supported in part by funding from Office
  of Naval Research and Space and Naval Warfare
  Systems Center

2
Motivation and Goals

• CWT Challenges
• AFMAN 15-129 AFI 15-114 measure relevancy of
  AFW products to customers, conduct operational
  verification, develop process improvement
  metrics, and operator debriefs (face-to-face
  preferred)
• Air Force Audit Agency Report released Sep 2005
  deficiencies in customer feedback processes, no
  standard procedure in AFIs
• Manpower not adequate to embed, high number of
  deployments
• Goals
• Adapt existing web-based, near-real time system
  for collecting and analyzing data
• Implement and test system to assess value AFW,
  ACC, PACAF
• Use results to provide AFW, ACC, and PACAF advice
  on how to alter procedures and allocation of
  resources to better accomplish goals

Maj Darnell NPS AFWA/CC Brief, 16 Mar 06, POC
kmdarnel_at_nps.edu
3
Data and Methods

• Data
• From aviators Beale AFB (U-2), Dyess AFB (B-1),
  Kunsan AB (F-16), Nellis AFB (A-10), Osan AB
  (A-10 F-16), Whiteman AFB (B-2)
• Type planning/execution forecasts, mission
  planning impacts due to forecasts,
  aircrew-observed weather, operational impacts of
  weather on mission
• Timeframe Oct 05 Jan 06
• NPS AF aviator survey
• Methods
• Paper copy and online forms from aviators
  (predominantly flight leads)
• Data archived and analyzed in close to near-real
  time at NPS to calculate forecast performance and
  operational impacts metrics

Maj Darnell NPS AFWA/CC Brief, 16 Mar 06, POC
kmdarnel_at_nps.edu
4
Results

• 107 Missions Analyzed 82 Successful, 7
  Unsuccessful, 11 Unknown
• Osan AB 40
• Dyess AFB 17
• Whiteman AFB 16
• Kunsan AB 14
• Nellis AFB 8
• Beale AFB 5
• F-16 38 A-10 24
• B-1 17 B-2 16
• U-2 5
• http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/airforc
  e
• PWFs indicated negative weather impacts 36
• Mission plans changed due to PWFs 21
• MEFs indicated negative weather impacts 39
• Mission plans changed due to MEFs 21
• Missions that experienced negative wx impacts
  36

Maj Darnell NPS AFWA/CC Brief, 16 Mar 06, POC
kmdarnel_at_nps.edu
5
Results
Negative Mission Impacts Occurring
Mission Plan Changes
Positive Mission Contribution
Potential Positive Mission
Contribution
Maj Darnell NPS AFWA/CC Brief, 16 Mar 06, POC
kmdarnel_at_nps.edu
6
Recommendations for AFW

• Include system in AFI 15-114 as prototype for
  customer feedback and metrics
• Compare mission success at bases with embedded vs
  non-embedded wx personnel
• Direct RD, ET funds toward surface visibility,
  cloud ceilings and cloud layers
• Educate aviators on wx products via IRC
• Adapt this system to OWSs

Maj Darnell NPS AFWA/CC Brief, 16 Mar 06, POC
kmdarnel_at_nps.edu