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A brief look at some major global changes


A brief look at some major global changes John Birchall Order of Talk Changes in US Foreign Policy Changes in UK Foreign Policy The rising stars China, India ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A brief look at some major global changes

A brief look at some major global changes
  • John Birchall

Order of Talk
  • Changes in US Foreign Policy
  • Changes in UK Foreign Policy
  • The rising stars China, India, BRIC countries
  • What are the apparent geo-political priorities?
  • The EU and its expansion
  • Globalisation and Free Trade some thoughts
  • Questions and Answers

The changes in US foreign Policy -1
  • 15 new positions created at US Embassy in China
  • 12 new position at US Embassy in India
  • 5 at US Embassy in Jakarta
  • Overall 74 new posts, of which over three
    quarters were in developing economies
  • Going to fund these are 61 positions of which 10
    are in Russia, 7 in Germany, 2 0r 3 in Belgium,
    Poland, Italy, Spain, Japan and perhaps
    surprisingly Brazil
  • BRIC countries?

Changes in US foreign policy - 2
  • In his recent trip to Asia President Bush called
    at Afghanistan reassurance.
  • Then India, the fast rising economic powerhouse
    and seen by west as counterbalance to China.
  • Then Pakistan, like India a nuclear power and
    whose volatile regions provide cover of al-Qaida
    training and possibly Bin Laden

US Foreign Policy - 3
  • US changing its focus. US diplomats have been
    killed in Karachi etc and attempts elsewhere
  • Reaction to spread/influence of Islamic
  • These changes are also posing threats to Europe
    and so policies are changing
  • The role of NATO and EU in European defence?

UK Foreign Policy Changes - 1
  • the world is more complex and circumstances are
    changing Michael Jay, Head of FO March 2006.
  • Shifting resources from Europe to Asia
  • 153 Embassies and high commissions 10 missions
    to UN etc and 70 Consulates
  • Priorities counter-terrorism, combating illegal
    immigration, drug-trafficking and other
    international crime, conflict resolution

UK Foreign Policy Changes - 2
  • Continued maintain interests in Europe,
    sustainable development and UK security
  • Closing 9 Embassies and High Commissions,
    Vanuatu, Tonga, Kiribati, Lesotho, Swaziland and
  • New establishments include Baghdad, Kabul and
    North Korea and recruitment has concentrated on
    counter-terrorism and drug-trafficking
  • Embassy protection costs have doubled to 4.8m in

Other EU States changes in foreign policy
  • Germany post re-unification 35 new embassies
    and consulates. New presence in North Africa
    (energy), Middle East (energy) and countries such
    as Indonesia, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Engaging
    with Islam (large population in Germany and Mrs.
    Merkle has said nothing on Turkish Accession to
    EU 2015?
  • France already has large presence in Middle
    East (history), increased security and staff
    working on terrorism and may share some
    facilities with Germany
  • What of EU diplomatic missions and Constitution
    has role for EU Foreign Minister and seat on
    Permanent Members of Security Council

Is it all west to east?
  • China busy in Africa, Latin America and Far
    East. Needs ALL major industrial imports,
    especially energy.
  • Maintains an embassy in almost every country in
    the world and has 5000 officials working

What are the priorities?
  • How does China view the world?
  • Look at its 61 Consular Offices and see where
    they are located largest number in US, then
    Japan and they dont always seem too close,
    Britain, Germany, France, Australia, Canada and
    South Africa.
  • They spend a lot in Pakistan, which might be seen
    to counterbalance of US/India relations (new 44m
    port at Gwadar, Angola which has just received a
    billion dollar credit line to purchase Chinese

The world through three different sets of eyes
  • Washington
  • FIRST RANK MISSIONS -Beijing as the most
    important long-term military and economic threat
    to US global influence. Watches Japan closely as
    it is industrial power and like China buys US
    debt. Also Berlin, London and Paris
  • SECOND RANK UN, India (nuclear power and
    counterbalance to Islamabad), Ottawa close
    neighbour and important for trade (NAFTA),
    Brussels, Moscow, Tel Aviv, Rome, Seoul (growing
    in importance), Mexico City again NAFTA and
    security of southern borders, Islamabad.
  • THIRD RANK Brasilia which is the dominant South
    American power and a BRIC country. May be a
    potential nuclear power. Cairo, friendly Arab
    power and gateway to canal and Red Sea, Amman
    which is another friend in Middle East, Riyadh
    and oil military bases, Abu Dhabi which is set
    to be larger energy exporter to US and EU

World through different sets of eyes - 2
  • Washington continued
  • Bangkok, Bahrain, Pretoria
  • London
  • FIRST RANK US, UN, Brussels, Paris
  • SECOND RANK Rome, Berlin, Beijing, Moscow, Delhi
  • THIRD RANK Riyadh, Baghdad, Cairo, Pretoria
  • Fourth rank Tel Aviv, Ottawa, Canberra

World through different eyes
  • Beijing
  • FIRST RANK US, Tokyo
  • SECOND RANK London, Berlin, Islamabad, North
    Korea, Moscow, South Korea, Paris, Rome
  • THIRD RANK Riyadh, Tehran, Pretoria, New Delhi,
    Ottawa, Canberra, Argentina
  • FOURTH RANK Angola, Zimbabwe (raw materials),
    Chile, Cambodia, Vietnam,

Expansion of EU
  • Treaty of Rome 1957 now 25, soon 27.
  • Europe united, Single market, Single Currency.
  • Regional Policy 75
  • Budget 1.1 of Net National Income of member
  • Influence
  • Major Aid contributor
  • Could go to 30 - Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro,
    Serbia, Turkey and has special relations with
    Russia, parts of North Africa and Middle East

Globalisation - 1
  • everyone will gain
  • Free trade greater liberator that aid
  • Outsource, low wage to high income
  • Low value goods made in developing countries,
    high value in developed
  • Boost demand in developing economies and it will
    boost business in developed world
  • Speed of change, internet, high intellect
    research and high end development going to
    Budapest, South Africa and India
  • Stagnated wage rates in US, what will happen to
    middle grade workers in London, Paris etc?
  • Educated global elite who can move easily around
    business centres?
  • Look at some of the reasons why the French and
    Dutch rejected proposed EU Constitution

Globalisation - 2
  • Where will Africa fit into this? Look at its
    recent history
  • How will Sierra Leone have to change to meet this
    fast changing, information driven age?
  • What should be priorities of Sierra Leone?
  • I can give you sites to visit to develop your
    interest in global issues.
  • Thanks,
  • John
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