Improving QPE and very shortterm QPF: An initiative for a communitywide integrated approach

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Improving QPE and very short-term QPF An
initiative for a community-wide integrated
approach

• Steven V. Vasiloff, Dong-Jun Seo, Kenneth W.
  Howard, Jian Zhang, David H. Kitzmiller, Mary G.
  Mullusky, Witold F. Krajewski, Edward A. Brandes,
  Robert M. Rabin, Daniel S. Berkowitz, Harold E.
  Brooks, John A. McGinley, Robert J. Kuligowski,
  Barbara G. Brown
• Affiliation NOAA/National Severe Storms
  Laboratory

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2005 Q2 workshophttp//www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrd/wish
/q2/2005wkshp/index.php

• Cohosted by the NWS Office of Hydrologic
  Development
• Reviewed quantitative precipitation estimation
  (QPE) and very short-term QPF (VSTQPF) science
• Wilson and Brandes (1979)
• Topical study groups
• Next-generation QPI (Q2) science plan
• Research to operations plan

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Q2 focus
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Sensor strengths and weaknesses
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NWS River Forecast Center ops

• River forecast applications
• Mountain Mapper in the West
• Uses gauge and precipitation climatology
• No radar data used (except in southern AZ)
• Multisensor Precipitation Estimator
• Uses gauge, satellite and radar
• Final Stage IV products manually QCed
• Local and mean field bias adjustments

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NWS Weather Forecast Office ops

• Flash flood applications
• Individual radars used
• Five Z-R relations available
• Snow accumulation algorithm
• One Z-S relation

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National Mosaic and Q2 (NMQ) systemhttp//www.n
mq.nssl.noaa.gov/

• 24x7 experimental system to test applications
• Real time data ingest
• Radar, satellite, gauge, RUC-II, lightning
• National 3D radar mosaic for Q2
• 1 km x 1 km horizontal 31 vertical levels
• Q2 verification system (QVS)
• Joint Applications Development Environment (JADE)
• Forum (forum.nssl.noaa.gov)

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Next steps

• Manually add new data and applications
• Mesowest precipitation data PRISM analysis
• Radar gap filling (horizontal and vertical)
• Multisensor regression/statistical algorithms
• QPE/QPF blending
• Additional verification methods
• Better user interactivity with QVS

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Next steps (last)

• Operational mosaic and Q2 system at NCEP
• Facilitate RTO via X-NMQ
• Currently duplicating national mosaic
• JADE development
• Post analysis capability via Web portal
• Application installation via Web portal
• Links with NASA/Giovanni and NSF/LEAD Web portals
• National Q2 team
• Monitor and assess new applications
• Make recommendations for operational upgrades

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Summary

• National test bed for Q2 and RTO
• 24x7 evaluation
• New applications and methods being added
• Creating JADE Web portal
• Algorithm installation and playback over the
  Internet
• Facilitate collaboration
• Maintain Q2 working groups to flesh out science
  plan
• NWS operations and services improvement process
• Youre invited to participate!
• Steven.vasiloff_at_noaa.gov
• www.nmq.nssl.noaa.gov

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• The end