Toward a US National AQ Forecast Capability: Current and Planned Capabilities

1
Expansions to NOAAs National Air Quality
Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7,
2008 Paula Davidson, Rohit Mathur, Jeff
McQueen, Scott Jackson, Ivanka Stajner, Ken
Carey NWS Manager, Air Quality Forecast
Capability

2
Outline

• Background on NAQFC
• Progress in 2008
• Operational products
• Experimental products
• Developmental testing
• Coordination with Partners
• Looking Ahead

3
National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityCurrent
and Planned Capabilities, 10/08

• Improving the basis for AQ alerts
• Providing AQ information for people at risk

• FY08 Prediction Capabilities
• Operations
• Ozone, expanded from EUS to CONUS, 9/07
• Smoke implemented over CONUS, 3/07
• Experimental testing
• Ozone upgrades
• Smoke predictions over AK
• Developmental testing
• components for particulate matter (PM) forecasts

• Near-term Operational Targets
• Ozone, smoke coverage extended Nationwide
• Longer range
• Quantitative PM2.5 prediction
• Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours
• Include broader range of significant pollutants

4
National Air Quality Forecast Capability
End-to-End Operational Capability

• Model Components Linked numerical prediction
  system
• Operationally integrated on NCEPs supercomputer
• NAM mesoscale NWP WRF-NMM
• CMAQ for AQ HYSPLIT for smoke
• Observational Input
• NWS weather observations NESDIS fire locations
• EPA emissions inventory

• Gridded forecast guidance products
• On NWS servers www.weather.gov/aq and
  ftp-servers
• On EPA servers
• Updated 2x daily
• Verification basis, near-real time
• Ground-level AIRNow observations
• Satellite smoke observations
• Customer outreach/feedback
• State Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA
• Public and Private Sector AQ constituents

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Progress in 2008

• Operational Products
• Ozone Coast-to-Coast (CONUS) guidance
  implemented 9/07 2008 updates for emissions,
  WRF-NMM
• Smoke CONUS guidance implemented 3/07 12/07
  upgrade to full vertical resolution
• Experimental Products
• Ozone CB-05 chem mechanism, developing
  prototypes for AK, HI
• Smoke Expanded coverage to AK, 6/08
• Developmental Products
• Aerosols Developmental testing providing
  comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations.
  (CONUS)
• CMAQ (aerosol option), testing CB05 chemical
  mechanism
• Prototypes for AK, HI (ozone) HI (smoke)
• Dust and smoke inputs testing dust contributions
  to PM2.5 from global sources
• Preliminary tests combining dust with
  CMAQ-aerosol
• Case studies combining smoke inputs with
  CMAQ-aerosol
• RD efforts continuing in chemical data
  assimilation, real-time emissions sources,
  advanced chemical mechanisms

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Verification Statistics Example
Max 8-hr O3 081507
Fraction Correct 0.92
Max 8-hr O3 081507
Eder et al. 2008
7
Progress from 2005 to 2007Ozone Prediction
Summary Verification
2005 Initial Operational Capability
(IOC) Operational, NE US Domain
Operational
NEUS
2005 Experimental, Eastern US Approved 8/05 to
replace IOC (NE US) in operations
Experimental
EUS
2006 Operational, Eastern US
Operational
EUS
2007 Experimental, Contiguous US Approved 9/07
to replace Eastern US config in operations
Experimental
CONUS
8
Progress from 2007 to 2008CONUS O3 Prediction
Summary Verification
2007 Contiguous US (CONUS) Implemented 9/07 to
replace Eastern US config in operations JJA
0.974
Experimental
CONUS
2008 CONUS, wrt 85ppb Threshold JJA
0.980
Operational
CONUS
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Prediction Accuracy and Ozone Thresholds
Effect on FC moderate reduction
10
Smoke Predictions Summary Warm Season, 2007 and
2008
2007

• FC generally gt 0.7
• FC Target not established for qualitative smoke
  tool
• Based on satellite AOD column verification only

• TS cum 0.159 Target 0.08 (Column
  verification)

2008

• FC generally gt 0.6

• TS cum 0.133

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Real-time Testing, Summer 2008 Experimental
Testing

• Experimental Predictions
• Publicly available, real-time
• Ozone
• CMAQ with advanced gas-phase chemical mechanism
  CB05
• more comprehensive Volatile Organic Compound
  (VOC) reactions
• challenge more O3 with CB05
• regional implications CA, NE US
• Smoke
• Testing over AK domain
• new GOES-W smoke verification in development
• challenge little fire activity in 2008

Experimental
Operational
weather.gov/aq-expr weather.gov/aq
12
Real-time Testing, Summer 2008 Experimental vs.
Operational O3 at 85 ppb
Experimental
Operational
Experimental vs Operational, 85ppb FC decreases
in exptl predictions
13
Real-time Testing, Summer 2008 Experimental vs
Operational O3 at 76 ppb
Experimental
Operational
Experimental vs. Operational, 76 ppb FC
decreases in exptl predictions
14
Developmental Testing, Summer 2008

• Developmental Predictions
• Focus group access only, real-time as resources
  permit
• Real-time Testing, Aerosols from NEI sources
• CMAQ, Gas-phase CB05 June 10
• aerosol chemical reactions (AERO-4) with
  heterogeneous pathways
• sea salt emissions and chemistry included in
  aerosol module
• Expanded domains
• HI smoke
• Exploring HI, AK ozone

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Developmental Aerosol Predictions Summary
Verification, 2008
Emissions Correction
August 16, 2008
August 17, 2007
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Aerosol Summary 2008
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Partnering with AQ Forecasters

• Focus group of state and local AQ forecasters
• Participate in real-time developmental testing of
  new capabilities, e.g. aerosol predictions
• Provide feedback on reliability, utility of test
  products
• Emphasize local episodes/case studies
• Meet regularly to examine test predictions,
  discuss feedback, potential improvements
• Work together with EPAs AIRNow NOAA
• Forecaster Coordination
• WFO and NCEP/HPC forecasters provide weather
  information for partner AQ forecasters
• Web-site for AQ forecasters, interactive
  discussion on event-driven basis

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PHL O3 and aerosol predictions -- Ryan, 2008
Experimental Ozone Guidance, 6/17 -9/10, 1200 UTC
Observed Mean 64.5 ppbv Operational Bias
4.8 ppbv Experimental Bias 8.3 ppbv Increased
over-prediction consistent day-to-day as weather
conditions changed.
Developmental aerosol guidance, 7/12 -9/10, 1200
UTC Daily 24-hr max
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National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityLooking
Ahead

• Nationwide ozone and particulate matter
  predictions
• Expanding ozone smoke to nationwide coverage,
  Target FY10 and
• Begin quantitative particulate matter
  predictions, Target FY14

• Providing information Nationwide on when/where
  poor AQ is expected
• Reducing losses to life (50,000) each year from
  poor AQ
• Reducing economic losses (150B each year) from
  poor AQ

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National AQF CapabilityNext Steps

• Developing Particulate matter components
• Smoke from large fires experimental testing in
  AK, HI
• Components for quantitative PM forecast
  capability
• Objective satellite products for verification
  (ongoing)
• Aerosols predictions from anthropogenic source
  emissions in inventories continued
  development/testing/analysis testing advanced
  chemical mechanisms
• Further component development, chemical data
  assimilation, dust, speciated fire emissions,
  in-line coupling of weather and AQ simulation
• Developmental and experimental testing,
  integrated quantitative PM capability
• Target operational implementation for initial PM
  forecasts, NE US FY14
• Expanding, Improving Ozone forecast guidance
• Closer coupling of AQ with NAM
  treatments/resolution, horizontal boundary
  conditions
• Development of AK, HI capabilities target
  operational implementation in FY10
• Extend forecast range to Day 2 and beyond

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Acknowledgments AQF Implementation Team Members

• OCWWS Jannie Ferrell Outreach, Feedback
• OCIO Cindy Cromwell, Allan Darling, Bob
  Bunge Data Communications
• OST/MDL Jerry Gorline Dev. Verification
• OST/MDL Marc Saccucci, Tim Boyer, Dave Ruth NDGD
  Product Development
• OST Ken Carey, Ivanka Stajner Program Support
• NESDIS/NCDC Alan Hall Product Archiving
• NOAA/OAR Jim Meagher NOAA AQ Matrix Manager
• NCEP
• Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, Youhua
  Tang, EMC AQF model interface development,
  testing and integration
• Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim
• Sarah Lu Global data assimilation and
  feedback testing (NASA, NESDIS)
• Brad Ferrier, Dan Johnson, Eric Rogers,
  Hui-Ya Chuang WRF/NAM coordination
• Geoff Manikin Smoke Product testing and
  integration
• John Ward, Brent Gordon, Chris Magee NCO
  transition and systems testing
• Robert Kelly, Bob Bodner, Andrew Orrison HPC
  coordination and AQF webdrawer
• Guest Contributors
• NOAA/OAR

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Operational AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/
aq
CONUS Ozone Expansion Implemented September,
2007
Smoke ProductsImplemented March, 2007
Further information www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/air_qual
ity
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Appendix
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Updates in 2008Operational Products

• WRF update (March, 2008)
• Size Expanded domain by 18
• Model Parameterizations Implemented gravity wave
  mountain drag parameterization, modified
  horizontal advection for better mass
  conservation, Improved surface longwave radiation
  calculation, Improved soil moisture calculations
  OCONUS
• Data assimilation Upgraded GSI with NMM bkgd
  error covariances, more satellite obs
• Ozone Predictions Emissions Updates (May, 2008)
• Point, area and mobile source emissions updated
  based on NEI (2005) and projected for the current
  year.
• EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality
  on-road emissions estimates
• EGU sources 2006 CEM data projected for 2008.
• Biogenic sources updated with BEIS 3.13
• Smoke Predictions (December, 2007)
• Increased vertical resolution now at full NAM
  60-layer resolution
• Increased computational efficiency, faster
  product delivery

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Continuing Science UpgradesImprovements to the
expanding NAQFC

• Continuing RD required
• OAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide
  prototype capabilities for pre-operational
  development, testing experimental production, and
  implementation
• Assuring quality with science peer reviews
• Design review of major system upgrades (initial,
  yearly upgrades)
• Diagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and
  evaluations
• Publication of TE in peer-reviewed literature
• Ozone Capability
• Otte et al. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 367-385
  (2005)
• Lee et al., J Applied Meteorology and
  Climatology, in press (2007)
• Mckeen et al., J. Geophys. Res. 110, D21307
  (2005)
• Yu, et al. , J. Geophys. Res. (2007)
• Smoke Tool
• Prados et al., J. Geophys. Res. 112, D15201
  (2007)
• Kondragunta et al., submitted for publication
• Rolph et al., submitted for publication
• Zeng and Kondragunta, ms. in preparation
• Ruminski, Kondragunta, Draxler and Zeng, in
  preparation

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National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityMajor
Components IOC
Weather Observations
NWP Model NAM/Eta-12 NOAA/NWS
NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules
EPAs National Emissions Inventory EPA/OAQPS
AQ Module Emissions Preprocessor
PREMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD
IT /Comms NOAA/NWS and EPA/OAQPS
AQ Module Air Quality Reactive
Transport CMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD
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Smoke Forecast Tool What is it?

• Overview
• Passive transport/dispersion computed with
  HYSPLIT WRF-NAM (or GFS, OCONUS). 24-hr
  spin-up, 48-hour prediction made daily with 6Z
  cycle
• Fire Locations
• NESDIS/HMS Filtered ABBA product (only fires
  with observed associated smoke)
• Emissions
• USFS BlueSky algorithm for emitted PM2.5
• Smoke Transport/dispersion
• HYSPLIT (Lagrangian) plume rise based on
  combustion heat and meteorology
• Verification
• Based on satellite imagery for footprint of
  extent of observed smoke in atmospheric column
  exceeding threshold of detection

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Smoke Forecast ToolMajor Components
Weather Observations
NWP Model NAM/WRF-NMM NOAA/NWS
NESDIS HMS Fire Locations
NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules
USFSs BlueSky Emissions Inventory USFS
HYSPLIT Module NOAA/OAR
Verification NESDIS/GASP Smoke
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New Threshold and FC
FC increase
Good at Lower Threshold
Miss
Good
Good
Prediction
Good at Lower Threshold
Miss at Lower Threshold
Miss at Lower Threshold
Old Threshold
New Threshold
Miss
Good
Pred Obs
Observation
FC decrease
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Developmental Aerosol Predictions Summary
Verification, 2007-2008
2007
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Daily Aerosol VerificationMarch 5 20, 2008
Note sudden improvement from March 16