An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments

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An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities
Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and
Choice Experiments the Context of On-Shore
Wind Energy Supply

• Cornelia Ohl, Jürgen Meyerhoff Helmholtz
  Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig
  Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin)

Grant No 01UN0601A, B
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Overview

• The Project
• First Results
• Outlook

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The Project Background
Not in my backyard
CO2-emmissions and running out of resources
positive
negative
Global Climate Change
Impacts on Nature
Windenergy
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The Project Goals

• Quantifying externalities of wind energy supply
  with
• the help of Choice Experiments (CE) and an
• Ecological-Economic Modelling (EEM) procedure.
• Identification, Evaluation and Visualisation of
• alternative land use options.
• Support site selection for the installation of
  wind
• power plants

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The Project Modelling procedure

Data on Wind speed, Impacts on nature (esp.
collision risk red kite) and humans (noise,
shadow etc.).
3 representative wind mills (2MW, 3 MW, 6 MW) For
each technology calcula-tion of energy output,
land consumption, collision risk red kite etc.
Display of GIS Maps Visualisation of e.g.
Energy output (here classified according
to German EEG)

• red low energy outputgreen - high energy
  output

(1km grids)
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The Project Identification of sites
Green Potential sites for a specific wind mill
erection
Red Suitable sites from a nature conservation
point of view
Grey Sites elected by regional planning bodies
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The Project Choice Experiments

• Characteristics of wind energy production are
  defined as attributes of environmental changes
• Focus is on
• Height of the turbines
• Seize of a wind farm
• Impacts on local wildlife (collision risk red
  kite)
• Distance to settlement areas
• Cost of allocation patterns (surcharge monthly
  power bill)
• Setting options presented to German public
• Survey includes statements concerning attitudes
  toward wind power generation, etc. and Choice
  Experiments
• Two representative studies (West Saxony Northern
  Hesse)
• Nationwide online-survey (Accessible June to
  July 2008)

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First Results Online-Survey Presentation of
Attributes and levels
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First Results Online-Survey Self selection bias

• Respondents were gained through press releases
  and announcements on various web pages
• Thus, sample is not representative for German
  population, e.g.
• only 20 women in sample (nationwide around 51)
• 44 of respondents buy green energy (nationwide
  around 5)

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First Results Online-Survey Consistency of
choices
Programm A presents status quo for wind power
production in 2020
Each respondent was presented 4 choice cards
during interview plus a fifth card with a
dominant alternative
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First Results Online-Survey Choice of dominant
alternative

• Respondents were randomly presented one of two
  choice cards with a dominant alternative, i.e.,
  all attributes were at least as good as in the
  other alternative and at least one was better

DomAlt1Programm C dominates B DomAlt2Programm B dominates C
Programm A (Status quo 2020) 624 / 62.4 623 / 62.5
Programm B 39 / 3.9 331 / 32.7
Programm C 337 / 33.7 48 / 4.8
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First Results Online-Survey Effect of attribut
level - Conditional logit

• Apart from Ab_150 all variables are
  significant at 5 level
• Apart from Hei_110 and Hei_150 signs are as
  expected, e.g., price prei is
• negative
• Negative sign for Hei_110 and Hei_150
  indicates that people do not prefer a
• move from wind mills of 200 meter height to
  smaller ones

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First Results Online-Survey Implicit prices
based on CL
WPmid 0.74 (0.32 / 1.16)
WPsma -0.57 (-0.98 / -0.16)
Hei_110 -1.69 (-2.19 / -1.19)
Hei_150 -0.40 (-0.79 / -0.01)
Natlow 5.18 (4.29 / 6.07)
Nathigh -6.82 (-7.98 / -5.65)
Ab_1100 0.61 (0.21 / 1.01)
Ab_1500 0.35 (-0.04 / 0.74)

• Implicit price (IP) indicates WTP for movement
  from one attribute level to another
• IP is given by

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Outlook Evaluation of Sites

• Integration of Survey Results in the
  EE-Model
• Goal Sustainable Site Selection

Natur impactgreen low
Energy outputgreen high
Social impactgreen low
S e a r c h f o r c o m p r o m i s e !
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Outlook Site Selection with MULBO
Compromise 1 Equality of goals
Red Wind mill erection (Typ I) not allowed by
legislation
Green Potential sites for wind power generation
as selected by MULBO
Blue Sites selected by regional planning bodies
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Thank you for attention!
Websites http//www.ufz.de/index.php?de
14638
http//www.landschaftsoekonomie.tu-berlin.de/8359.
html