The Prediction and Monitoring of Environmental impacts caused by CDM-AR Projects

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The Prediction and Monitoring of Environmental
impacts caused by CDM-AR Projects

• Prof. Dr. ir. Bart MUYS
• K.U.Leuven
• bart.muys_at_agr.kuleuven.ac.be

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Outline

• 1. A sustainability framework for CDM-AR
• 1.1 Environment as part of Sustainable
  development
• 1.2 Sustainability framework
• 2. Environmental Impact in CDM-AR (demand)
• 3. Methods to assess Environmental Impact
  (supply)
• 3.1 Overview of methods
• 3.2 Selection of methods
• 4. Assessment Methods for CDM-AR
• 4.1 Programme design
• 4.2 Project design
• 4.3 Project monitoring and internal auditing
• 4.4 Project auditing and certification
• 5. Conclusions

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A sustainability framework for CDM-AR1.1.
Environment as part of sustainability

• WHAT IS SUSTAINABILITY ?
• When you figure out what sustainability is, let
  me know
• USDA economist, 1990
• Sustainable development is development that
  meets the needs of the present without
  compromising the ability of future generations to
  meet their own needs
• WCED, 1987 (the Brundtland Report)

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• Interpretation Sustainability is
• Something important
• Something good
• Something to do with ecology and economy at the
  same time
• Everybody talks about it
• Everybody understands it differently
• Everybody thinks he/she is implementing it
• Hence, something difficult to measure
• In conclusion, a very important concept, but
  unpractically defined

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Re-defining sustainability

• Sustainability a state in which the environment
  and the ecosystem are not degraded by human
  activities
• Development evolution of increasing human
  welfare and well-being
• Sustainable development (SD) development which
  does not degrade environment and ecosystem over
  the longer term (50/50)

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1.2. Sustainability framework for
CDM-AR(Madlener et al., 2003, modified after
Lammerts van Bueren and Blom, 1998)
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Framework definitions (1/3)

• An Issue is a main theme or domain that should be
  covered to reach SD (e.g. The environmental
  issue). SD is essentially a multi-issue
  optimization process
• A principle is an accepted fundamental rule of
  SD. It is formulated as a commandment (e.g. The
  protection function should be maintained, and
  where appropriate, enhanced)

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Framework definitions (2/3)

• A target is a long term planning objective aiming
  at the implementation of a principle
• A strategy a long-term methodological approach
  followed to reach a target
• A task is a concrete item of an action plan
  bringing targets and strategies to implementation
  
• A guideline is a set of practical instructions
  important for successful implementation of a task

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Framework definitions (3/3)

• A criterion describes the state of the system
  under compliance with a principle. It is
  formulated to allow a verdict (e.g. Soil erosion
  is minimized)
• An indicator is a variable indicating the level
  of compliance with a criterion
• A norm or threshold is a well-defined indicator
  value setting the boundary between compliance and
  non-compliance to a criterion
• A verifier is a tool or instrument to measure an
  indicator

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Framework for CDM-AR example
Hierarchical level Example
Aim Sustainable LULUCF project
Dimension Environmental
Action path
Issue Ecosystem protection
Target Erosion control
Strategy Fight soil erosion through preventive action
Task Preventive erosion control during road construction works
Guideline Guideline for good environmental practice concerning the protection of stream flows during road construction works
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Framework for CDM-AR example
Hierarchical level Example
Aim Sustainable LULUCF project
Dimension Environmental
Control path
Principle The protection function shall be maintained and, if appropriate, enhanced
Criterion Soil erosion is minimized
Indicator Annual sediment loss in tonnes/ha
Norm Verifier Maximum soil loss 10 tonnes/ha/year Calculation of USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation)
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Principles under the Environmental Issue

1. The overall GHG balance (including carbon in peat
   and soil, N2O, CH4, etc.) of the project shall be
   positive
2. Forest area shall be conserved or restored,
   forest vitality and condition shall be maintained
   and where appropriate enhanced
3. The Productive function of the forest shall be
   maintained, forest regeneration secured and
   sustainable harvest promoted
4. Biodiversity, ecological processes and life
   support functions of the ecosystem shall be
   maintained, and where appropriate, restored
5. The Protection function (water, soil) shall be
   maintained and where appropriate restored

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Examples of criteria for environmental principle
4 (biodiversity)

1. Existing biological, genetic and habitat
   diversity are maintained and conserved where
   necessary
2. Numbers, area and distribution of Landscapes,
   forest types and habitats with specific
   biodiversity values are conserved
3. Plantation forests are only accepted if they do
   not replace natural forests, demonstrate to
   decrease pressure on the natural systems and
   demonstrate local socio-economic benefits
4. Afforestation/reforestation makes maximal use of
   native species use of exotics is minimized and
   is dependent on a number of restrictions
5. The use of biocides, fertilizer, genetically
   modified organisms, non native plant, animal,
   pest and disease species is not allowed or
   regulated under strict conditions

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Example of indicators for environmental principle
4, criterion 1 (conservation of
biodiversity)modified from national CI of ITTO
for natural tropical forests

• Percentage of original range occupied by selected
  endangered, rare and threatened species.
• Existence and implementation of a strategy for in
  situ and/or ex situ conservation of the genetic
  variation within commercial, endangered, rare and
  threatened species of flora and fauna.
• Existence and implementation of management
  guidelines to (a) keep undisturbed a part of
  each AR zone, (b) protect endangered, rare and
  threatened species of flora and fauna, and (c)
  protect features of special biological interest,
  such as river banks, cliffs, nesting sites,
  niches and keystone species.
• Existence and implementation of procedures for
  assessing changes of biological diversity of the
  production forests, compared with areas in the
  same forest type kept free from human
  intervention.

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Indicators should meet following criteria

• Cost effective and simple in measuring
• Sensitive to the considered principle and
  criterion
• Universally applicable (rule for auditing,
  recommendation for monitoring)
• Quantitative
• Spatially explicit
• Not arbitrarily chosen but based on a solid
  ecological concept. We propose the ecosystem
  exergy concept
• Measuring as much as possible endpoints in the
  cause-effect chain
• Low in number
• Integrate the time aspect
• Distinguish reversible from irreversible impacts

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Recommendations concerning environmental issues
(1/2)

• 1. RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING THE ACTION PATH
  (PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION PHASE)
• 1.1. All 6 environmental issues should be adopted
  in CDM-AR project design and management plan
• 1.3. Guidelines for good environmental practice
  in CDM-AR projects must be developed and adopted
• 1.4 Environmental risk and uncertainty analysis
  must be integrated in the design and management
  of a CDM-AR project

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Recommendations concerning environmental issues
(2/2)

• 2. RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING THE EVALUATION PATH
  (MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PHASE)
• 2.1. Project initiators should create, use and
  update a database integrating maps, inventory
  and monitoring data of all environmental
  information concerning the project area
• 2.2. The assessment tools used for monitoring and
  auditing must be flexible to cope with variable
  experience and data availability
• 2.3 Assessment tools should be standardized as
  far as possible
• 2.4 The use of a functional unit to express
  environmental impacts is advisable (e.g. 1 Ton of
  avoided or reduced CO2).

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2. Environmental impact in CDM-AR (demand side)

• Kyoto protocol (1997) no rules specified
• CoP9 Milano (2003) Modalities and Procedures for
  AR project activities under the CDM in the 1st.
  commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol
• Many rules and guidelines on carbon accounting
  (baseline, additionality, non-permanence) with
  reference to the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for
  Land use, Land-Use Change and Forestry.
• Very few explanation on other environmental and
  socio-economic issues. More detail only in annex
  B under the contents of a Project Design Document
  (PDD)

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Environmental impacts in PDD

• describe the project activity, the present
  environmental conditions including climate,
  hydrology, soils, ecosystems, and the possible
  presence of rare of endangered species and their
  habitats. They also mention that the PDD should
  also include the following information on the
  environmental impact of the project activity
• Include documentation on the analysis of the
  environmental impacts of the project activity,
  including impacts on biodiversity, natural
  ecosystems, and impacts outside the project
  boundary of the proposed afforestation and
  reforestation project activity under the CDM.
  This analysis should include, where applicable,
  information on, inter alia, hydrology, soils,
  risk of fires, pests and diseases
• If any negative impact is considered significant
  by the project participants or the host Party, a
  statement that project participants have
  undertaken an environmental impact assessment, in
  accordance with the procedures required by the
  host Party, including conclusions and all
  references to support documentation.

Consequence the assessment methods for CDM-AR
must at least include these aspects
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3. Methods to assess environmental impact

• A variety of methods for sustainability
  assessment is available
• The question is which ones can best serve our
  goals and meet the requirements of CoP9
• Rule not start from the method, but from the
  problem to solve (using a stakeholders approach)

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3.1 Overview of methods

• General Environmental legislation
• Action path (methods for design, planning and
  implementation)
• Design and Planning
• Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
• Risk Analysis
• Implementation
• Codes of Good Environmental Practice
• Decision Support Systems (DSS) or Knowledge Based
  Systems (KBS)

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3.1 Overview of methods

• Evaluation path (methods for monitoring and
  auditing)
• State of the Environment Reporting
• Environmental auditing (including standards of
  P,CI of SFM)
• Life Cycle Assessment
• Cost/Benefit Analysis

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Environmental legislation

• Objective prevention, control and punition
• Characteristics
• Develops slowly following increased human
  pressure on natural resources
• Based on the Polluter pays principle (taxes,
  charges, fines, compensation for damage)

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Environmental Impact Assessment

• Definition a procedure for encouraging
  decision-makers to take account of the possible
  effects of development investments on
  environmental quality and natural resource
  productivity before any decision is made
• Objective Prevention of environmental damage or
  degradation as a result of human action
• Characteristics follows a systematic
  interdisciplinary approach to produce an
  Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)

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Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (sEIA)

• Definition an EIA for policies and programmes on
  a wider geographical level

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Risk analysis

• Concept reduce risks to ALARA level (as low as
  reasonably acceptable)
• Objective assess the probability of an accident
  and of the damage it would cause determine the
  ALARA level
• Types of risk technical or environmental,
  social, marketing, juridical, financial.

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Codes of good environmental practice

• Operational tool for daily practice
• Example the South African code of good
  harvesting practice, used for
• Planning of forest roads, extraction routes and
  timber harvesting
• Monitoring of operations in progress
• Feedback during and after completion of the
  operations (auditing)

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Codes of good environmental practice. Example
the South African harvesting code of practice

• The code first defines the values to care for
• Soil
• Water
• Forest health
• Scientific and ecological interests
• Paleontological, archaeological and historical
  values
• Aesthetic and recreational values
• Human resources
• Commercial interests

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Codes of good environmental practice. Example
the South African harvesting code of practice

• The code gives rules of practice for
• Construction of forest roads, landings and
  extraction routes
• Timber harvesting
• Post harvesting operations
• For each activity the following aspects are
  explained
• The factors influencing the activity
• Potential effects of bad practice
• Positive effects of good practice
• Methods of reducing potential negative effects
• Essential elements of the operational plan

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II.3. Decision support systems

• Sustainable forest management depends on
  decisions. The right decisions can be hard to
  make because of
• the complexity of the problem.
• the inherent uncertainties in the outcome.
• The multiple objectives that have to be achieved,
  which means that progress in one direction may
  impede negative effects in others. In such case a
  decision maker must trade off benefits in one
  area against cost in another.
• different perspectives may lead to different
  conclusions.

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Decision support systems a definition

• A decision support system is a computer software
  package, designed and operated to model or
  otherwise represent the structure of a decision
  problem and thus allow the user(s) to identify
  and select a preferred strategy or other course
  of action from two or more alternatives against a
  pre-determined set of criteria.
• A DSS may be defined by its capabilities in
  several critical areas
•   Aimed at poorly structured, underspecified
  problems
•   Combine the use of models or analytical
  techniques with traditional data access and
  retrieval functions
•   Easy to use by non computer specialists in an
  interactive mode
•  Emphasize flexibility and adaptability to
  accommodate changes in the decision making
  approach of the end-user

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Spatial Decision support systems (sDSS)

• Takes spatial variation into account ideal for
  land management
• Uses GIS technology
• Scales up point models to the landscape level
• Exemple AFFOREST a spatial decision support
  system for afforestation optimizing for carbon
  sequestration, groundwater recharge and nitrate
  leaching

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Second step analysing the type of question
Afforested system
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Evaluation of Decision support systems for
sustainable forest management

• Strengths
• user friendly
• able to give simple answers to complex questions
• adapted to specific or local problems
• can include all aspects of sustainability
• can include a lot of existing expert knowledge
• able to model in time (prediction) and space
• Weaknesses
• very complex and expensive to design
• very few systems are operational
• user doesnt know or understand what is behind

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State of the Environment Reporting

• Objective Long-term monitoring of trends
  describe measures and policies taken
• Steps data acquirement storage analysis
  statistics reliability
• Examples State of the World report (world watch
  institute) Dobris assessment (European
  Environment Agency) Company reports (as part of
  annual reports)

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Standards of P,CI of SFM

• The most widespread evaluation tool for
  sustainable forest management
• More than 150 standards available worldwide
• Standards for the national and for the Forest
  Management Unit (FMU) level
• National standards for evaluating the
  effectiveness of the national forest policy
• FMU standards for evaluating the sustainability
  of the management and for forest certification
  (FSC, ISO 14000, PEFC)

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Strengths and weaknesses of CI for SFM

• Strengths
• BATNEEC method for SFM evaluation Best Available
  Technique Not Entailing an Excessive Cost
• Standards adapted to local conditions and local
  problems
• Low technical skills required to use
• Weaknesses
• Poor scientific base (what do they exactly intend
  to measure?)
• Arbitrary choice of CI
• Arbitrary weights attributed to CI
• Not a quantitative, but a descriptive approach
  (when it is sustainable, how sustainable is it?)
• No clear reference system
• No universal applicability (important if you want
  to compare different management systems or
  different wood products)
• Poor uniformity between standards in contents and
  semantics

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Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)

• Method developed in industry to compare
  environmental impact of products and production
  processes with a clear emphasis on continuous
  improvement
• Quantitative approach, mass balances of inputs
  and outputs
• Including the complete life cycle of a product
  from cradle to grave

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Life Cycle Assessment an ISO 14040 standardised
stepwise procedure
 
Life Cycle Assessment((LCA) framework
1. Definition of goal and scope
4. Interpretation (including sensitivity
analysis, aggregation and conclusion)
Applications -product design and product
optimisation - planning - marketing
2. Life cycle Inventory (LCI)
3. Life cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA)
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LCA differences with CI

• It does not include socio-economic and cultural
  aspects it is restricted to the environmental
  aspects of sustainability
• It is more standardized (stepwise methodology,
  linearity, no double counting, sensitivity
  analysis)
• It is more quantitative and less subjective
• It is, in principle, universally applicable all
  land use systems and climate conditions

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LCA some important concepts

• System boundariesIn the definition of goal and
  scope, it is decided which aspects and processes
  will be part of the study and which ones will be
  excluded
• Functional unitIt is the unit of the end product
  to which each impact is expressed (e.g. one
  newspaper in the case of an LCA for paper one km
  in the case of an LCA for vehicle fuels, etc.)
• Impact category an LCIA is performed per impact
  category greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
  extraction of abiotic resources, eutrophication,
  acidification, human health, land use, etc.

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LCA some examples

• Example 1. Impact category GHG emissions in an
  LCA for electricity production from bioenergy
  crops (short rotation coppice) (1/3)
• Goal and scope which coppice system is having
  the strongest GHG emission reduction?
• Inventory analysis (literature study)
• Impact analysis in two steps
• dynamic modelling with GORCAM (Graz Oak Ridge
  Carbon Accounting Model)
• express impact per functional unit (1 Kwh of
  electricityheat)
• Compare with a reference system (leaving the land
  set-aside and produce electricity from natural
  gas)

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Impact assessment modelling the GHG balance (2/3)

• carbon sequestration is low
• substitution for fossil fuels decreases GHG
  emissions substantially
• overall GHG emission reduction is very high

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Impact assessment results per functional unit
(3/3)
(Lettens et al. 2002)
Performance per area
Performance per energy unit produced
Emission product system
Emission reference system
Avoided emission
Avoided emission

• Performance on a ha basis differs from the one
  on an energetic basis
• Best performance of mixed native coppice on an
  energetic basis explained by higher carbon
  sequestration in soil, lower N20-emission and
  lower fossil fuel use

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Example 2. Impact category land use for LULUCF
projects (Land use, land use change and forestry)
in the framework of the Kyoto protocol (1/7)

• Goal and scope which forestry project will have
  the lowest land use impact?
• Inventory analysis literature data and field
  observations
• Impact assessment
• method Muys and Garcia (2002) has 17 quantitative
  indicators comparing the exergy level of the land
  use system with the exergy level of the climax
  system at the same site. Indicators cover 4
  themes (soil, water, vegetation structure and
  biodiversity)
• expressing the impact per functional unit of 1
  ton CO2 emission reduction

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• Land use Impact assessment (2/7)
• The land use impact score is the difference in
  land quality between the present land use and the
  reference system, multiplied by the time/space
  requirement to produce one functional unit.

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• Land use impact assessment indicators (3/7)

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• Land use impact assessment indicators (4/7)

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• Land use impact assessment indicators (5/7)

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land use impact per unit of area (6/7)

• all land use types can be compared
• Impact of all land uses on soil and water is
  low, except for tropical deforestation
• natural systems have lowest impact
• intensively managed plantations systems have
  higher impact than multifunctional forests
• overall impact of plantation forest does not
  seem much higher than that of fijnbos vegetation,
  when afromontane forest was chosen as a reference
• impact of selective logging and shifting
  cultivation in tropical forest is low

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Land use impact per FU of 1 ton CO2 (7/7)

• result of multiplying land use impact with
  areatime needed to produce 1 FU
• intensive energy crops have a very low impact,
  because their timespace requirement per ton CO2
  emission reduction is very low
• multifunctional forests have a high impact,
  because their timespace requirement per FU is
  very high

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Evaluation of LCA for sustainable forest
management

• Strengths
• Transparent, objective, quantitative approach
• Suitable for comparing options
• Suitable for making improvement
• Compatible with the exergy law
• Weaknesses
• Only for the environmental aspects of
  sustainability (other aspects can be done with
  cost benefit analysis
• Data requirements can be high
• More difficult than CI to perform

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3.2. Stakeholders driven selection of methods
What sustainability concerns do different
stakeholders of CDM-AR projects have? Policy
makers (POL) Does the national CDM-AR Scheme
meet the requirements of SD? Forest managers
(MAN) Does the FM plan and its implementation
meet the requirements of SD? Managers of forest
industry (IND) Which production scheme (in terms
of silviculture, harvesting and transport) has
the lowest environmental impact? End consumers
(CON) Does a purchased wooden product comes from
sustainable forest? Conservation group (NGO)
What is the environmental impact of afforestation
in a particular zone?
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Example some available environmental assessment
tools to answer these questions
Criteria and Indicators (CI) Life Cycle
Assessment (LCA) Knowledge-based Systems
(KBS) Environmental Impact Assessment
(EIA) Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
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The best fits between questions and methods to
answer (Baelemans Muys, 1998)
POL ? EIA (not significant) MAN ? KBS
(significant) IND ? LCA (significant) CON ? C
I (not significant) NGO ? EIA (significant)
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4. Assessment Methods for CDM-AR

• For a programme (country)
• Programme design Strategic Environmental Impact
  Assessment (sEIA) and, if not in place,
  Environmental Legislation
• For a project
• Project design Environmental Impact Assessment
  (EIA), including Risk Analysis
• Project monitoring and internal auditing Land
  Use Impact Assessment (a new method based on
  LCA), leading to an annual State of the
  Environment Report
• External auditing P,CI leading to SFM
  certification

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4.1 Programme design Environmental legislation
and Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment

• Countries that did not yet include EIA in their
  legislation or did not include CDM-AR projects in
  their EIA legislation may want to do so. The
  latter is probably only due for big projects from
  a certain surface area onwards. Small-scale
  projects may be exempt from this obligation. The
  definition of a small-scale project is under
  discussion at SBSTA.
• A strategic or programmatic EIA is an EIA for
  policies and programmes on a wider geographical
  level. This is recommendable in countries where
  CDM-AR may become a big issue and where some
  general rules and procedures must be developed,
  as suggested in the CoP9 Decision.

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4.2 Project design Environmental Impact
Assessment (including risk analysis)

• The output of the EIA is EIS, a document meeting
  government requirements and added as part of the
  PDD for UNFCCC. Important themes to include are
  soil erosion, water balance, biodiversity,
  landscape aesthetics, ecosystem functioning

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4.3 Project monitoring and internal auditing
Land use Impact Assessment

• The proposed Land Use Impact Assessment method
  was developed by Muys and Garcia (2002). It
  divides the landscape in homogeneous sites (based
  on climate, soil and topography) and per site, it
  compares the quality of the actual land use with
  the quality of a reference state, being the
  Potential Natural Vegetation of that site. This
  is done for 17 indicators, belonging to 4
  thematic groups soil, water, vegetation
  structure and biodiversity. The method is scale
  independent and functions for all land uses
  anywhere in the world. The data demand is
  relatively low and it allows to compare different
  projects among each other. Examples for different
  Land use, Land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
  projects world wide are given.

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4.4. Project auditing and certification
Environmental auditing (standards of P, C I,
state of the Environment reporting)

• A national standard for CDM-AR can easily be
  developed from an existing standard for
  evaluation and certification of SFM

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5. Conclusion

• It can be concluded that instruments for
  environmental management and assessment are
  complementary to each other. For further
  development in CDM-AR it is important that the
  different instruments used at different levels
  and stages in the decision process, use as much
  as possible the same principles, criteria and
  indicators.