International Dairy Markets q a US Dairy Industry Perspective

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International Dairy Marketsqa US Dairy Industry
Perspective
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We can not predict the unpredictable
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GLOBALISATION
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GLOBALISATION
Globalisation is NOT simply export
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Global GDP Growth
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More people
with more money
in more places
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REALITY CHECK
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REALITY CHECK
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GLOBALISATION
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World Demand
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Nutrition
Global GDP Growth
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Nutrition
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Nutrition
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Nutrition
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Nutrition
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YOGURT
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CHEESE
Per capita consumption
US Cheese Consumption per Capita
Driven by Nutrition demand and growing wealth
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BUTTERFAT
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COMPETITORS
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World Supply
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World Supply
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World Supply
NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
LOW COST PRODUCER
CURRENCY IMPACT
VEGETABLE-DAIRY-MEAT
FOOD or FUEL
GENERATIONAL CHANGE
WHO WILL MILK THE COWS?
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World Supply
SUSTAINABILITY
TECHNOLOGY
FOOD SAFETY
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World Supply and Demand
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World Supply and Demand
Balanced at what price?
Demand
Structural Surplus
Supply
2004
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NEW MARKET DYNAMICS
HISTORIC PRICE LEVEL
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VOLATILITY
Stable Supply Growth
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US Dairy Industry
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DFA Marketing Network
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cows are moving away from people
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Regional Changes10-Year Milk Shed Shift
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DFA Member Demographics January 2008
Farms - 10,590 Average cows - 175
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DFA Member Demographics 25 of milk
Farms 8,921 Average cows 52
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DFA Member Demographics 25 of milk
Farms - 129 Average cows 3,578
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EU
NEW ZEALAND
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US - International
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Dumping
VALUE
TIME
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World Supply and Demand
Structural Surplus
Supply
Demand
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minimum US price
US support price
PRICE
Maximum world price
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World Supply and Demand
Structural Shortage
Demand
Supply
2004
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VALUE
Selling
Dumping
TIME
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Marketing
VALUE
Selling
Dumping
TIME
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The US and DFAs Role in the Global Marketplace
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THANK YOU