Implications of Communication Mobility and the Mobile Web for Development

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Implications of Communication Mobility and the
Mobile Web for Development

• George Sadowsky
• george.sadowsky_at_gmail.com
• August 2009

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Presentation Abstract

• "The explosion of mobile communications devices
  is contributing another powerful tool to the
  arsenal of technical tools for economic and
  social development. The promise of information
  any time, anywhere has the potential to bring new
  and useful information to many people not yet
  connected. There is already a surge in very
  useful applications based upon simpler mobile
  technologies. What must we know and do to
  maximize the potential of this new technology for
  development?
• My point of view is personal and western, and is
  not attributable to any organization
• The focus of my remarks is oriented specifically
  to development and to developing countries

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Presentation Outline

• Why is this important
• Mobile penetration will be increasingly available
• What needs to be done? Prescriptions for
• Investment
• Regulation
• Scalability
• Sustainability
• Conclusion

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Why is this Important?

• Mobile Internet is a disruptive game-changing
  technology
• Offers major hope for ICT contributing to
  development
• Has promise of relevant information, any time,
  anywhere, at affordable cost
• Information issues and problems remain, but
  distribution is potentially solved

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Internet A Disruptive Technology

• All new technologies can disrupt
• New technologies offer new options
• Old technologies may coexist or be replaced, I.e.
  new technologies can be partial or total
  substitutes
• Ex autos/horses/bicycles, electricity/gas/candles
  , movies/television, airplanes/trains and boats,
  steam power/manual labor
• Telecom progress has been largely evolutionary
• Operator/dialup, rotary/keypad, copper/fiber,
  analogue/digital, relays/computers, slow
  evolution of services
• In contrast, fixed Internet has disrupted
  classical telecomm model in terms of economics,
  business and governance.
• The mobile Internet adds another disruptive
  dimension

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Development opportunity/response

• Economic history opportunity/response model
• Change presents opportunities
• Nations, businesses, cultures respond differently
  to various opportunities
• Responses lead to different development outcomes
• What response maximize exploiting the potential
  of mobile Internet for development?

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Mobile Penetration Increasing

• Mobile telephony is exploding in developing
  countries
• Now 4.1 billion mobile subscriptions
• 28 of people in Africa have cellular
  subscriptions
• Applications exploit several mobile-based
  technologies
• SMS, MMS
• Voice input and output
• Web enabled phones now available at 50 euros or
  less
• Internal mobile bandwidth growing quickly
• International links to underserved also finally
  growing

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TeleGeography estimates of 3G/4G Addressable
Market in 2013

• The actual take-up rates for 3G/4G services in
  2013 are estimated range from 25 of potential
  subscribers in Africa to 62 in Western Europe.

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WITFOR 2009 Hanoi, Vietnam
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TeleGeography International Bandwidth Growth

• Additional cables in Africa include SEACOM,
  Glo-1, Main One, WACS, and ACE, and should add
  significant Europe-Africa capacity.

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WITFOR 2009 Hanoi, Vietnam
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Lessons Learned from ICT

• Major emphasis placed on lessons learned
• Most lessons are local to the specific project
• Not generally useful outside that projects
  context
• Generally not shared or disseminated, or just
  forgotten
• Often contradictory and confusing
• Project evaluation is often very donor specific
• A theory of ICT and development
• Generalization from anecdotal experience
  dominates
• Almost impossible to derive
• Political and organizational considerations often
  dominate
• But a long run view does provide prescriptions
  for success

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Prescriptions for Investment

• Long run ICT history provides more useful view
• 1950-1970 mainframe computers
• 1970-1980 minicomputers
• 1980-1995microcomputers
• 1995-present Internet and Web
• For each new wave of technology
• Computing increasingly used to simplify user
  interface
• Both costs and size of computing systems
  decreased
• Simple interfaces, lower cost produced more users
  and more products
• Lesson put tools and power directly in the hands
  of users
• Lesson invest in bottom-up growth of use by real
  users and developers
• Mobile Internet provides maximum opportunity to
  do this

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Prescriptions for Regulation

• Policy responses of governments in ICT matter
• Direct implications for regulation of telecomm
  and ICT sectors
• M-cash has implications for regulation of
  financial sector
• Mobile Internet is a challenge to policy
  formulation
• Response of governments to opportunities will
  affect their rate of economic and social
  development

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Prescriptions for Scalability

• Two types of scalability
• Horizontal through replication
• If participants are local, this works well
• Implies investment in hardware and copy of
  software
• Vertically through scaling up pilot systems
• Sometimes necessary e.g. for large central data
  bases
• Should not assume that scaling up is best way to
  scale
• Service could become too far removed from its
  roots
• Some scalability essential to popularize and
  diffuse useful mobile-based Internet services

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Prescriptions for Sustainability

• Sustainability of service often most difficult
• Some mobile web services commercially sustainable
• Other services often started by NGOs for donors
• Possible roles for government
• Identify new and useful services needing support
• Assist in sustaining them or taking the over
• Useful if government is partner in countrys
  mobile web strategy
• Government needs education and information
  regarding potential of this technology
• Must be cultivated as partner for sustaining
  services

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Conclusion

• Internet and mobile web are disruptive
  technologies that hold great promise for
  development
• Relevant information available any time,
  anywhere, at low cost
• Mobile penetration exploding
• High bandwidth (3G, 4G) increasingly available
• Costs of web-enabled handsets decreasing
• Factors that can maximize potential of this
  technology
• Enable bottom-up use with training and tools
• Establish intelligent and supportive government
  regulation
• There are alternative ways of scaling successful
  services
• Sustain services through intelligent government
  support when appropriate and needed

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Thank you

• george.sadowsky_at_gmail.com