Workshop B: Aging, shrinking regions and access to services

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Workshop B Aging, shrinking regions and access
to services

• Prof. Simin Davoudi
• Director of Social Systems
• Institute for Research on Environment and
  Sustainability (IRES)
• Newcastle University
• ESPON Seminar
• Evora, 11-13 Nov. 2007

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Declining share of European population

• EU 25 460 m. in 2005
• 3.9 since 1990
• National differences
• Cyprus grew by 31
• Estonia declined by 14
• Slovenia and Poland remained constant (0.1 and
  0.4)
• EU share of world population
• 16 in 1950 7 in 2005
• By 2030 Europeans will account for 1 in 16 of the
  worlds population, down from 1 in 6 in 1950.

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The Ageing Europe

• Fall in fertility rate
• 2.7 in 1960, 1.4 in 2001
• To below reproduction rate (2.1) in all MS
• Lowest in e.g. Northern Spain, Eastern Germany
• Highest in e.g. Northern Finland and Ireland
• Fall in mortality rate
• Increase in longevity
• Share of 60 from 21 in 2000 to 30 by 2030
• Share of -20 from 23 to 15
• Life expectancy rises from average 76.5 to 84.5
  years

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A Silver Century
Median age in 2000
Median age in 2030
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Sever ageing 50-60 years by 2030

• Examples of regions with highest median age
• North West Spain
• Northern Italy
• Sardinia
• Corsica
• Eastern Germany
• Scotland
• Central Poland
• Central Portugal

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Migration

• Dominant intra-EU flows
• Periphery to core
• East to West
• Immigration from outside the EU
• Out-migration of highly qualified workers
• Migration is age-specific
• yellow-red young Blue-green old

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Combined effect Regional variations 1990s

• Population gain
• 60 of NUTS regions
• 30 due to natural and migratory rises
• 20 due to selective (young) migration, despite
  low fertility
• 10 due to negative migration but positive
  natural balance

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Combined effect Regional variations 1990s

• Population loss
• 40 of NUTS3 regions
• 88 of 133 most declining are in Germany
• Some are old industrial areas
• Many are relatively rural, sparsely populated and
  geographically remote

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Shrinking regions

• Depopulation of small towns and rural areas
• Due to a triple demographic time bomb
• Too few children
• Too many old people
• Too many young adults leaving
• Counter-urbanisation
• E.g. in the UK some 1700 people move out of the
  cities every week to live in countryside

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Key Socio-economic challenges

• Shrinking workforce
• shortage of skilled labour
• declining competitiveness of European economy
• Late entry to and early exist from the labour
  market
• Squeeze of workforce particularly among higher
  socio-economic groups
• Rising dependency ratio (2 to 1 by 2030)
• longer working hours, higher taxes

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Key socio-economic challenges cont.

• Growing number of older people
• raising the cost of health care and pension
• The Ageing Europe
• putting pressure on the European social model and
  welfare provision
• Grey voting power
• shifting public spending away from nurseries and
  schools to health care and retirement homes,
• blocking reform to retirement age and pension
  schemes

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Key socio-economic challenges cont.

• Social differentiation among older people
• poverty and isolation among some who mainly live
  in urban areas using distance care packages
  versus
• luxury life among others living in large houses
  with carer quarters, in retirement destinations
  
• Immigration
• response to demographic restructuring
• increase in the cost of integration (employment,
  housing, crime, health care and education)
• social and cultural tensions

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Key territorial challenges

• Differentiated patterns of demographic change
• An age element to east / west, centre /
  periphery, south / north, urban / rural divisions
• Countries with highest level of ageing population
  versus
• countries with youngest population
• Concentration of immigration from outside Europe
  in large and mainly capital cities

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Key territorial challenges

• Different territorial destinations for
  intra-European migration
• affluent retirees moving from north to south and
  Mediterranean regions,
• east European workers searching for job in
  western European countries

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Key territorial challenges cont.

• Meso level territorial differentiation
  metropolitanisation, depopulation and
  counter-urbanisation
• Growing population in metropolitan areas both in
  western and eastern Europe versus
• Depopulation of rural areas in eastern and
  western peripheries, central part of Germany,
  central and north Italy
• Shrinking regions with declining basic services

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Key territorial challenges cont.

• Micro level spatial segregation
• Affluent older people moving to rural areas with
  lower crime rates, good access to health services
  and pleasant climate versus
• lower income older people remaining in urban
  areas