EMISSION FROM INTERNATIONAL SEA TRANSPORTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT yvind Endresen, Eirik Srgrd

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EMISSION FROM INTERNATIONAL SEA TRANSPORTATION
AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTØyvind Endresen, Eirik
Sørgård and Gjermund GravirDet Norske Veritas,
Veritasveien 1, N-1322 Høvik, Norway. andStig
B. Dalsøren, Jostein K. Sundet, Tore F. Berglen
and Ivar S. A. IsaksenDepartment of Geophysics,
University of Oslo, Norway
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Introduction

• Not regulated by the Kyoto agreement (UNFCCC,
  2001).
• Fuel Main engines often use residual fuels, high
  content of sulphur, nitrogen and ash.
• 1,6 global yearly increase in fuel consumption
  (this study).
• 5.4 per year growth in shipping trade in Asia
  1988-95 (Streets et al. 2000)
• Regulated by ANNEX VI of MARPOL 73/78 (the
  International Convention for the Prevention of
  Pollution from Ships) (IMO, 1998).
• Before possible (expensive) regulations are
  implemented.
• - reliable emission inventories (Veritas)
• - Quantification and evaluation of environmental
  impacts (UiO)

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Emission model
Distribution of the world fleet of ships
(1) Lloyds World fleet statistics 1996 and
2000 (2) OECD 1997 (Push-towed vessels not
included) (3) Adcock 1995 and ENCYCLOPÆDIA
BRITANNICA 1998 (4) Includes 759 submarines (5)
Includes 523 submarines
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Modelled cargo and passenger fleet fuel
consumption and emissions in 1996 and 2000 from
the main engine(S) (ME) and auxiliary engines
(AUX)
1) Bulk dry and Bulk dry/oil vessels 2) Including
Passenger/General Cargo vessels 3) Including
Passenger/RO-RO vessels
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GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMISSIONS

• Alternative methods for distribution of the
  emissions are used
• COADS
• Based on 6,931 ships reporting of routine
  meteorological observations, ideally at 6-hours
  intervals according to procedures by the World
  Meteorological Organization (WMO).
• The data for 1996 is statistically summarised on
  a monthly basis with a 1x1 spatial resolution.
• Purple Finder
• Communicate with each vessel's Inmarsat-C
  terminal and automatically reports position.
• PF has supported us with a fleet map on 1x1
  for year 2000 that contains vessel observations
  for 1863 ocean going cargo vessels.
• AMVER (Automated Mutual-assistance Vessel Rescue
  system)
• 12,550 ships that represent very well the
  international merchant fleet.
• Advantage ship type and size can be identified.
• The spatial resolution of the data is 1x1.

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VOC from crude oil carriers
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Environmental impact

• Perturbations of the global distribution of
  ozone, methane, sulfate and nitrogen compounds
  were estimated using the global 3-D OSLO CTM2
  (tropospheric version) with interactive ozone and
  sulfate chemistry.
• T42 40 layers
• ECMWF meteorological fields for 1997
• Online chemistry
• - 51 components
• - 102 chemical reactions
• Emissions
• - Edgar v2.0 (1995-gt1997) for anthropogenic
• - Mostly Muller for natural (agreed in POET)
• - Ship Veritas
• Simulations
• - Basis without ship emissions
• - Ship emis. Of CO, NOx and SO2 included, using
  3 difffernt distributions (Coads, PF, AMVER,
  new results adding together PF, AMVER.
• - VOC emissions from ships also included.

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Relative increase (given in ) in yearly average
wet deposition of SO42- due to ship emissions
(AMVER ? No ship).
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Relative changes of global yearly averaged OH
concentrations and methane lifetime compared to a
simulation without ship emissions
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Calculations, global average change in
concentrations and RF due to ship emissions
1 DU 1 Dobson Unit (2.7 x1016 molecules/cm2).
The estimated ozone is from surface up to 323
hPa. The number has a feedback factor (impact
of methane changes on its own lifetime) of 1.4
included.
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Future plans/possible collaboration

• Simulations with new model version T42 (2.8x2.8),
  40 layers
• Comparison with results using other ship emission
  inventories (Edgar, Corbett)
• Effects of reduced NOx emissions (30).
• Effects of regulations of sulphur content in
• specific regions (Baltic Sea, North Sea)
• What would be the impact in 2020 assuming current
  increase and no regulations

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Conclusions

• International fuel consumption by the cargo and
  passenger fleet is estimated to 132 Millions
  tonne (Mton) and 144 Mton for 1996 and 2000,
  respectively.
• Emissions estimated for seven exhaust gas
  compounds. Carbon dioxide (CO2), nitric oxides
  (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOx) corresponds to
  about 2, 10 and 4-5 of the global
  anthropogenic emissions, respectively.
• Alternative methods and data (COADS, AMVER and
  PF) for global distributions of emissions were
  discussed. The AMVER data set is found to best
  reflect the distributions of merchant ships in
  international trade,
• - indicates that 80 of the traffic is in the
  Northern Hemisphere
• A separate model address VOC (Volatile Organic
  Compound) emissions from crude oil cargo tanks
  during transport and handling of 1300 Mton crude
  oil. The VOC emissions are estimated to close to
  2 Mton, distributed on 85 defined ports and well
  defined ship routes.

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• Ozone perturbations are highly non-linear, being
  most efficient in regions of low background
  pollution. Different data sets (e.g. AMVER,
  COADS) lead to highly different regional
  perturbations. Maximum perturbations of
  approximately 12 ppb is obtained in the North
  Atlantic and in the North Pacific during summer
  months.
• Global average sulfate loading increases with 2.9
  , while the increase is significantly larger
  over parts of Western Europe (up to 8 ).
  Increase in acidification is 3 and 10 in certain
  coastal areas.In contrast to the AMVER data the
  COADS data gives particularly large enhancements
  over the North Atlantic.
• Ship emission reduce methane lifetime by
  approximately 5 . CO2 and O3 give positive RF,
  and CH4 and sulfate give negative forcing. The
  total RF is small (0.01 - 0.02 W/m2) connected
  with large uncertainties.