SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM

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SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE
OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM

• by
• Pál TAMÁS Hungarian Academy of Sciences,
  Budapest

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FRAMES OF THE PROJECT

• HUNGARY 2015 PROJEKT
• Elite-Delphi
• Representative national survey about perceptions
  of the future
• SCENARIOS
• a. Human capital and learning-centered
• b. chamber of trade-oriented middle term
  competitiveness
• c. soft growth sensitivity to social cohesion
  and sustainibility

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Value leads to wealth and is the foundation for a
healthy society and a sustainable environment
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REFERENCE POINTS OF THE MODELL
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STRUCTURE OF THE MODELL
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PERCEPTIONS OF THE FUTURE linear in the elites,
chaotic in lower middle class and further down
Levels of uncertainty
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A
B
?
2
C
D
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Clear-enough future forecast Traditional
toolkit
Alternate futures Discrete options Game
theory Decision analysis
True ambiguity No basis for forecast analogies P
attern recognition
Range of futures No natural option Scenario plan
ning
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LIMITED TIME HORIZONS UNFORSEEN REFLEXION POINTS
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SCIENCE IN THE ELITE-DELPHI

• KNOWLEDGE-SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY
• - Metaphore of future for the upper-middle class
  for the
• quality of life,
• its selt-confidency in the international
  environment,
• Relative autonomies inside of the political
  class,
• Perceptions of the actual Central European
  geopolitics.

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BASIC QUESTIONS

• Surviving perceptions of theprogress paradigm
  among the public?
• Intensity of Hungarian cultural pessimism?
• Limits of autonomies in strategic decisions
• Points and zones of state interventions?

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THE ROLE OF NATIONAL SCIENCE SYSTEMS IN THE
ACTIVE FORMATION OF THE FUTURE

• choices of the research system in active
  formation of future profiles of the country
• push-pull points in the national innovation
  system
• Perceived openess of the university and research
  system
• excellence, or relevance
• Tools and points of intervention

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FUTURE CONTURES OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM,
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SCIENCE POLICY HORIZONS
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SHORTAGE OF RESEARCH AND UNIVERSITY PERSONAL DUE
TO THE BRAIN DRAIN
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GERD FROM 0.95 TO 1.5-2.0
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STRONG HIGH SKILL IMMIGRATION
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BUDAPEST IS THE CENTER OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION
FOR EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE