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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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Gu 09 Seasonal Assessment Coverage: Field Access and. Field Data Locations ... Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June) Start of Season: started late ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia


1
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu 09 Assessment Analysis Central
Regions August 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
2
Gu 09 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field
Access and Field Data Locations
3
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and
Income
  • Livelihood Groups Main Sources of Food and
    Income
  • 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd Plateau, Addun,
    Coastal Deeh and Southern Inland Pastoralists
  • Primary sources of income of poor sale of
    livestock livestock products
  • Primary sources of food of poor purchase
  • Primary livelihood asset of poor camel,
    sheep/goat, with cattle being less dominant

Livelihood Zones
  • Central Agro-pastoral Livelihood Cowpea, Sheep
    Goats, Camel, Cattle (South Mudug, Galgaduud and
    Middle Shabelle). Farm size is 3-4 Ha and mostly
    reserved for fodder use for own livestock. Cowpea
    Agro-pastoral are more pastoral than
    agriculturalists. Main sources of income sale of
    livestock livestock products, crop sales and
    bush product sales Main source of food
    purchase

4
Climate Performance of the Gu 09 Season
  • Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June)
  • Start of Season started late
  • Temporal and Spatial Distribution Ended early,
    erratic, patchy and localized
  • Dry in all parts of the regions April(1st 2nd
    dekad), May (2nd 3rd dekad) June (1st , 2nd
    3rd dekad)
  • Extremely poor rains Hawd, Addun, Coastal deeh
    and Southern Inland Pastoralists of Galgaduud and
    Mudug Central Agro-pastoral (40-60mm)
  • Near Normal rains Localized areas of Cowpea belt
    Livelihood Zone of Elder district

5
Climate Vegetation Condition
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district land cover
6
Civil Insecurity
  • Civil Security Situation
  • Resource based conflict in Xaradheere district
    (August 09) but under control by the elders and
    local authorities.
  • Clashes between the Local Militia and Al-shabab
    erupted in Elder district and likely to escalate
    further
  • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
    Nutrition
  • Medium Impact Short-term restrictions on
    movement and trade in Xaradheere following land
    dispute
  • High impact and long-term restrictions on
    movements and trade in Elder and Increasing IDP
    due to civil insecurity

Source FSAU Protection Cluster
7
Agriculture
Gu 09 Crops complete cowpea crop failure due
to lack of rains
Cowpea crop affected by pests in Elder, July 09
  • Agro-pastoralists have experienced successive
    seasons of crop failure due to the following
    reasons
  • No rainfall in most of the Cowpea Belt areas
  • High pests attack in localized areas of Elder,
    which received near normal rains
  • High winds at early stage level wilting the crop
  • Sand dunes covering both crops and shallow wells

Crop failure due poor rains in Haradere, July 09
Green Crop affected by worm in Elder, July 09
8
Agriculture
Gu 09 Commercial Cereal Flow July 09
9
Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Terms of Trade
  • Regional Trend in
  • Cereal Prices
  • (Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (sorghum kg /daily wage)
10
Agriculture
  • Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Terms of Trade

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (Rice)
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor ( rice kg /daily wage)
11
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July
09
  • Extremely poor performance of Gu 09 season
  • Tremendous deterioration of both rangeland and
    water conditions
  • Resulting in very poor livestock body
    conditions/production
  • Leading to over-stressed and forced abnormal
    migration within the regions

12
Livestock Sector
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
13
Livestock
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Terms of
Trade
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Goat (rice kg/head)
14
Livestock Livestock Body, Water and Pasture
Conditions
Poor camel and pasture in Dhusamareb, , July 09
Emaciated camel body condition in Dhusamareb ,
July 09
Poor cattle body condition in Elder district, ,
July 09
Empty Berked in Abudwak, July 09
Poor pasture and early migration in the coastal
of Hobyo, July 09
15
Markets
Imported Commodity Prices, Labour
Rates/Availability
  • Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price
    Declines (last six months)
  • Declining global prices
  • Increased commercial imports
  • Appreciated/ Stable SoSh
  • Factors Affecting Wage Labor Availability
  • Low brokerage activities in livestock marketing
  • Increased trade activities

Shabelle Region Trend in Imported Commodity
Prices compared to Exchange Rate
LABOUR WAGE BY MARKET
16
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Nutrition
17
Nutrition
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2009
18
IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
19
IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
20
IPCSummary Progression of Rural IPC Situation
  • Key IPC Reference Outcomes (HE Hawd 100 Poor
    and 50 Middle Agro-pastoral 100 Poor, 75
    Middle Southern Inland pastoral 100 Poor, 25
    Middle Coastal Deeh 100 Poor, 75 Middle)
  • Acute malnutrition Critical in Hawd and Addun
    Pastoral but Serious in Coastal Deeh and Central
    agro-pastoral and increasing
  • Food Access Severe entitlement gap, unable to
    meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day
  • Water Access Average of 6.6 ltrs ppp day ( human
    usage only)
  • Destitution/Displacement Concentration,
    increasing (e.g. Galgaduud and south Mudug)
  • Coping Distress strategies and increasing
  • Livelihood Assets Near complete irreversible
    depletion or loss of assets
  • Main Causes
  • 5 Consecutive seasons of rain failure leading to
  • consecutive seasons of crop failures
  • limited livestock production reproduction and
    high livestock off-take
  • High food and non-food prices, high water prices
    and depletion of pasture
  • Significant decline of household income

21
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
22
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
23
IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC HE
24
Destitute Pastoral IDPs in Guricel town of
Galgadud region, this photo is taken by FSNAU FA
in May 09
THANK YOU
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