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Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

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Start of Season: late and ongoing ... Gu '09 Season. Climate. Vegetation ... Poor performance of Gu 09 season negatively affected both rangeland as well as ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia


1
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit -Somalia
Post Gu 09 Assessment Analysis Northwest
Regions August 2009
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
2
Gu 09 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field
Access and Field Data Locations
3
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and
Income
  • Livelihood Groups Main Sources of Food and
    Income
  • 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal
    Valley, and Golis/Guban Pastoralists)
  • Primary sources of income of poor sale of
    livestock livestock products
  • Primary sources of food of poor purchase
  • Primary livelihood asset of poor camel,
    sheep/goat
  • 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and
    Northwest Agro-pastoral)
  • Togdheer Agro-Pastoral are more pastoral than
    agriculturalists. Main sources of income sale
    of livestock livestock products,
    self-employment (fodder sales, 600 USD per
    truckload 6 MT) main source of food purchase
  • Northwest Agro-pastoral are more agriculturists
    than pastoralists. Main sources of income sale
    of crops, livestock products and labour main
    sources of food own crop production and
    purchase.

4
Climate Performance of the Gu 09 Season
  • Gu Seasonal Rains (April- June)
  • Start of Season started on time but intermittent
  • Temporal and Spatial Distribution Ended early,
    erratic, patchy and localized
  • Dry in eastern regions April(2nd 3rd dekad),
    May (1st 3rd dekad), June
  • (1st 2nd dekad)
  • Dry in western regions April (3rd dekad), May
    (1st 3rd dekad)
  • Near normal rains Western Golis-Guban of Awdal
    and W/galbeed, Borama town (63mm) and Hargeisa
    town (101mm)
  • Poor rains Hawd, Nugal valley, Sool plateau,
    Agro-pastoral and east Golis livelihood zones
  • Karan Rain (July Sept09.)
  • Start of Season late and ongoing
  • Temporal and Spatial Distribution limited to
    west agro-pastoral areas of W/galbeed and Awdal
    regions
  • Near normal rains still ongoing and too early to
    predict
  • Poor rains not yet started in western part of
    Togdheer agro-pastoral

5
Climate Vegetation Conditions
NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district land cover
6
Civil Insecurity
  • Civil Security Situation
  • Land dispute between Baki and Gabiley (June
    09), but under control by the elders and local
    authorities.
  • Elections scheduled for 27 Sept. 2009 tensions
    and security unpredictable
  • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security
    Nutrition
  • Low Impact
  • Short-term restrictions on movement and trade in
    Baki Geibeley following land dispute
  • Increasing IDP due to drought and civil
    insecurity

Source FSAU Protection Cluster
7
Agriculture Gu Karan 09 Crop Establishment
Estimates
8
Agriculture Gu Karan 09 Crop Establishment
Trends
Gu Karan 09 Crop Establishment Regional
Distribution
Long Term Trends in Gu Karan Crop Production
(1996-2009)
9
Agriculture Gu/Karan 09 Cereal Crop
Establishment Condition
10
Agriculture
Gu 09 Commercial Cereal Flow July 09
11
Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices
Terms of Trade
  • Regional Trend in
  • Cereal Prices
  • (Sorghum)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (Sorghum kg /daily wage)
12
Agriculture
  • Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Terms of Trade
  • Regional Trend in
  • Cereal Prices
  • (Rice)

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Labor (kg of rice/daily wage)
13
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration July
09
  • Poor performance of Gu 09 season
  • Negatively affected both rangeland and water
    conditions
  • Resulting in poor livestock body conditions,
    production
  • Leading to stressed and abnormal migration

14
Livestock Livestock Body Conditions Trends in
Production
15
Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade
Livestock
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Cereal to
Goat ( rice kg/head)
16
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Exports and Export Quality
Goat Prices
BerberaTotal Annual Livestock Exports Compared
to 5-Year Average
Berbera Livestock Exports (Heads) and
Export Quality Goat Prices (US)
17
Overall statement of livestock
Poor performance of Gu 09 season negatively
affected both rangeland as well as water
conditions resulting poor livestock body
condition and production.
18
Markets
Imported Commodity Prices, Labour
Rates/Availability
  • Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price
    Declines (last six months)
  • Declining global prices
  • Increased commercial imports
  • Appreciated/ Stable SoSh
  • Factors affecting Wage Labour Availability
  • Limited farming activities
  • Lower investments in construction activities
  • Low brokerage activities in livestock marketing.

19
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
20
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
21
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings
22
Nutrition Situation Estimates - Regional Maps
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009
23
IPC Analysis Templates Overall Statements
24
IPC Analysis Templates
Overall Statements
25
Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation
  • Key IPC Reference Outcomes
  • High Risk to HE (75 of Poor in Togdheer
    Agro-pastoral LZ and Sool-Sanag Plateau)
  • Acute malnutrition greater than usual and
    increasing
  • Food Access severe entitlement gap, unable to
    meet 2100 kcal ppp day
  • Water Access accessed via livelihood asset
    striping
  • Destitution/Displacement emerging, diffuse (e.g.
    Sool, Togdheer , Sanaag)
  • Coping distress strategies and increasing
  • Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical
    depletion
  • Main Causes
  • 3-4 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading
    to
  • consecutive seasons of crop failures
  • limited livestock production and high livestock
    off-take
  • High food and non-food prices, high water and
    fodder prices
  • Reduced household income

26
Summary Progression of Rural IPC Situation
  • Key IPC Reference Outcomes
  • AFLC (100 of Poor in North-West Agro-pastoral
    LZ, Hawd, Nugal valey 75 in Golis Guban)
  • Acute malnutrition serious to critical
  • Food Access lack of entitlement, 2100 kcal ppp
    day via livelihood asset striping
  • Water Access accessed via livelihood asset
    striping
  • Destitution/Displacement emerging, diffuse
  • Coping crisis strategies and increasing
  • Livelihood Assets accelerated and critical
    depletion
  • Main Causes
  • 2 consecutive seasons of poor rainfall leading
    to
  • consecutive seasons of crop failures
  • limited livestock production and high livestock
    off-take
  • High food and non-food prices, high water and
    fodder prices
  • Reduced household income

27
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
28
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
29
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC HE
30
  • THANK YOU
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