Global Warming in the PNW: Agriculture, Beaches, Abrupt Climate Change

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Global Warming in the PNW Agriculture,
Beaches, Abrupt Climate Change

• Eban Goodstein
• Lewis Clark College

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Growing Concern

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On Climate Change Economic Assessments

• Anything really worth doing is
• worth doing badly

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Three Major NW Impacts

• Reduction in Summer water supply
• Value of irrigated water, Salmon
• BAU Sea Level Rise 1-3 Ft.
• Beach Inundation use and existence value
• Catastrophic Sea Level Rise 25-48 Ft.
• Pacific Ocean shoreline 14th Ave in Downtown
  Portland

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Summer Surface Water Goodstein Matson (2004)
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Results

• Valuing Lost Summer Irrigation Water
• Reduction in consumer (farmer) surplus, OR/WA
  465 million to 2.4 billion annually
• Valuing Salmon
• Benefit-Transfer Approach for OR/WA
• 359 million (WTP) to 7.2 billion (WTA)

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More on Ag
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Beach Inundation

• Whitmore (2004) Valuing Beach Loss
• Travel cost for Use / CV for Bequest
• 50 beach loss scenario.
• Lost Use Value 91 million annually.
• Lost Bequest Value 123 million annually.

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Reasonable conclusion

• By 2050, economic costs to Oregon from climate
  change will be in the billions of dollars

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Catastrophic Outcomes?

• Goodstein and Doppelt (2006)
• Collapse of West Antarctic and/or Greenland Ice
  Sheets
• Highly uncertain, but irreversible process

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Hansen 2/17/2006

• How far can it go? The last time the world was
  three degrees C warmer than today -- which is
  what we expect later this century -- sea levels
  were 25m higher. So that is what we can look
  forward to if we don't act soonI think sea-level
  rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even
  than warming itself
• How long have we got? We have to stabilize
  emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or
  temperatures will warm by more than one degree.
  That will be warmer than it has been for half a
  million years, and many things could become
  unstoppable.We don't have much time left.

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Details of GIS Analysis
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Benefit-cost

• WTP for perfect insurance Nordhaus Boyer (2000)
• .6 billion - 3.2 Billion (downscaled to Oregon)
• Costs of highly imperfect insurance
• Clean cars very cheap to free
• RGGI Carbon cap Trade
• ? electricity price lt1 by 2020 (RGGI 2004)
• National 15 RPS
• ? electricity price -.2 2 by 2020 (Palmer
  Burtraw 2004)

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Economic Challenges

• Adaptation will be especially difficult due to
• Uncertainty uniform temperature increases
  unlikely large year to year variability
• Adaptation requires social consensus
• Past Infrastructure investments assumed climate
  stability

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