Potential Consequences of Global Climate Change for the Great Lakes Region - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 30
About This Presentation
Title:

Potential Consequences of Global Climate Change for the Great Lakes Region

Description:

Potential consequences for the Great Lakes region ... Erosion of beaches. Inundate coastal lands. Costs to defend coastal communities. Forest Impacts ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:64
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 31
Provided by: ORDN7
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Potential Consequences of Global Climate Change for the Great Lakes Region


1
Potential Consequences of Global Climate Change
for the Great Lakes Region
  • Presentation to the
  • Water Quality Board
  • International Joint Commission
  • Joel D. Scheraga
  • National Program Director
  • Global Change Research Program
  • U.S. EPA
  • February 6, 2002

2
Overview
  • EPAs Great Lakes Regional Assessment
  • The climate is already changing
  • What the future may hold
  • Potential consequences for the Great Lakes region
  • Thinking about adaptation Some thoughts on
    follow-up activities (John Furlow)

3
Great Lakes Regional Assessment
  • Preparing for a Changing Climate the Potential
    Consequences of Climate Variability and Change,
  • Assessment Team 30 investigators located
    throughout Great Lakes region
  • Focus
  • levels of the Great Lakes
  • stream flow
  • aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems
  • agriculture
  • quality of life.

4
  • The Climate is Already Changing

5
Observed Changes in the Great Lakes Region
  • Warmer conditions
  • More Rainfall Occurring in Intense Downpours
  • Less snowfall
  • Reduced Lake Levels
  • Early Spring (blooms)
  • Longer Growing Conditions

6
Temperature Trends 1901 to 1998
Red circles reflect warming Blue circles reflect
cooling All Stations/Trends displayed regardless
of statistical significance. Source National
Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
7
Precipitation Trends 1901 to 1998
Green circles reflect increasing precipitation
Brown circles reflect decreasing
precipitation All Stations/Trends displayed
regardless of statistical significance. Source
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
8
Trends of Annual Precipitation Intensity 1910-1994
0
2
3
3
0
2
0
1
3
More than 2 per day
9
Observed Climate Trends 20th Century
  • Temperature
  • Northern portion of Midwest, including Great
    Lakes, has warmed by almost 4oF
  • Southern portion, along Ohio River valley, has
    cooled about 1oF
  • Precipitation
  • Annual precipitation has increased as much as
    10-20
  • Increased rise in number of days with very heavy
    precipitation events

10
Historic Lake Michigan-Huron Water Levels
Record highs were set in 1973 and 1986
Over the last year (to March 2000) Lake levels
have experienced the second largest decline in
about 100 years
The lake levels for the past 30 years have been
in an extremely high water level regime  the
highest in recorded history, due to increased
summer and fall precipitation. The lake levels
are currently near their longer term (1900-1969)
mean.
11
What the Future May Hold
12
Expected Climate Change
  • Temperature
  • accelerated warming trend in 21st century
  • temperatures increasing by 5 to 10oF (3 to 6oC)
  • Average minimum temperature is likely to increase
    as much as 1 to 2oF (0.5 to 1oC) more than the
    maximum temperature
  • The Canadian Model is warmer and drier than the
    Hadley Model
  • Precipitation
  • likely to continue its upward trend, at a
    slightly accelerated rate
  • 10 to 30 increases are projected across much of
    the region

13
Changes in Water Level Lake Superior
14
Great Lakes Water Resources
  • Total range of 11 models projections for changes
    in lake levels
  • less than a 1 foot increase to more than a 5 foot
    decrease
  • Implications
  • 5 foot reduction would lead to a 20-40 reduction
    in outflow to St. Lawrence Seaway
  • Reductions in hydropower generation downstream of
    up to 15 by 2050
  • Increased costs of navigation of 5 to 40
  • Reduced shoreline damage due to high lake levels
    ranging from 40-80

15
Effects of Climate Change on Heavy Lake-Effect
Snowstorms near Lake Erie and other Great Lakes
Potential Benefits Such changes in snowstorm
frequency would decrease the cost of snow removal
and decrease the frequency of transportation
disruptions.
Potential Disadvantages Winter recreational
industry in southern portions of the Great Lakes
would have adverse consequences. For example,
business at Midwestern ski resorts was down 50
and losses were estimated at 120 million, during
the 1997-1998 El Niño year.
16
Great Lakes Water Resources Ice Cover
  • Likely to decrease
  • Days with ice cover will decline
  • Thickness of ice will decline

17
(No Transcript)
18
  • Potential Consequences

19
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health Impacts Weather-related Mortality Infectiou
s Diseases Air Quality-Respiratory Illnesses
Agriculture Impacts Crop yields Irrigation demands
Climate Changes
Forest Impacts Change in forest composition Shift
geographic range of forests Forest Health and
Productivity
Temperature
Precipitation
Water Resource Impacts Changes in water
supply Water quality Increased competition for
water
Sea Level Rise
Impacts on Coastal Areas Erosion of
beaches Inundate coastal lands Costs to defend
coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas Shift in ecological
zones Loss of habitat and species
20
Human Health
  • Water quality (e.g., drinking water)
  • Water-borne diseases
  • Impacts from extreme events
  • Heat stress
  • Air quality

21
Waterborne Diseases
  • Rainfall and runoff are related to site-specific
    waterborne disease outbreaks
  • 51 of waterborne disease outbreaks were preceded
    by extreme precipitation events
  • Outbreaks due to surface water contamination
    showed the strongest association
  • Association between rainfall and disease is
    important for water managers, public health
    officials, and risks assessors
  • Source Curriero et al. (2001)

22
Rivers in the Great Lakes Region Will Also be
Affected
  • Stream river flow into the lakes will likely
    change.
  • Inland rivers that are primarily snowmelt
    driven may have earlier peaks
  • as a result of less snow and more rain.
  • Changes in summer flows will depend on how
    increased precipitation is
  • balanced by evapotranspiration within
    watersheds.

23
Water Ecology
  • Warmer water likely to create environment more
    susceptible to invasions by non-native species
  • Runoff of excess nutrients into lakes and rivers
    is likely
  • coupled with warmer temperatures, likely to
    stimulate growth of algae
  • will deplete the water of oxygen to the detriment
    of other living things
  • Declining lake levels are likely to cause large
    impacts to distribution of wetlands

24
Quality of Life
  • Likely shift in recreational activities
  • Cold-season recreation will be reduced
  • skiing
  • Snowmobiling
  • ice skating
  • ice fishing
  • Warm-season recreation will increase
  • swimming
  • hiking
  • golf
  • Warm-season recreation likely to be affected by
    excessive heat

25
Impacts in Climate Change on Fruit Production in
the Great Lakes Region 2025-2034
Lake-modified regions surrounding Lake Michigan
will experience
  • moderate increase in growing season length
  • decrease in the frequency of subfreezing
    temperatures
  • important growth stages for perennials (e.g.,
    commercial fruit trees) will occur earlier

26
Agriculture Extreme Weather Events
  • Droughts and floods can result in large yield
    reductions
  • Example Weather conditions during growing
    season are primary factor in corn and soybean
    yields
  • Severe droughts cause yield reductions of over
    30
  • Example Drought of 1988

27
Loss of Habitat for Brown Trout from a Doubling
of CO2 - 2050
Not included in analysis
1-49 Loss
50-100 Loss
Dual screening criteria used for inclusion 1)
Thermal modeling predicts suitability and 2)
Fish presence in 10 or more of States water
bodies.
GFDL Climate Change Scenario
Source EPA, 1995
28
EPA Assessments Already Informing Stakeholder
Decisions About Adaptation
The Great Lakes Regional Assessment team has
hosted workshops to evaluate how assessment
findings can inform decision processes.
  • Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001)
  • - Loss of a foot of carrying capacity on a 1000
    foot vessel leaves 3240 tons behind _at_ 50 trips
    per year results in revenue loss for 162,000 tons
  • Fisheries Aquatic Ecosystems (June 2001)
  • Forests and Terrestrial Ecosystems (TBA)
  • Winter Recreation (TBA)
  • Agricultural Productivity (TBA)

29
www.epa.gov/globalresearch
30
Contact Information
  • Dr. Joel D. Scheraga
  • National Program Director
  • Phone (202) 564-3385
  • Email Scheraga.Joel_at_epa.gov
  • Mr. John Furlow
  • Phone (202) 564-3388
  • Email Furlow.John_at_epa.gov
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com