Title: Potential Consequences of Global Climate Change for the Great Lakes Region
1Potential Consequences of Global Climate Change
for the Great Lakes Region
- Presentation to the
- Water Quality Board
- International Joint Commission
- Joel D. Scheraga
- National Program Director
- Global Change Research Program
- U.S. EPA
- February 6, 2002
2Overview
- EPAs Great Lakes Regional Assessment
- The climate is already changing
- What the future may hold
- Potential consequences for the Great Lakes region
- Thinking about adaptation Some thoughts on
follow-up activities (John Furlow)
3Great Lakes Regional Assessment
- Preparing for a Changing Climate the Potential
Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, - Assessment Team 30 investigators located
throughout Great Lakes region - Focus
- levels of the Great Lakes
- stream flow
- aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems
- agriculture
- quality of life.
4- The Climate is Already Changing
5Observed Changes in the Great Lakes Region
- Warmer conditions
- More Rainfall Occurring in Intense Downpours
- Less snowfall
- Reduced Lake Levels
- Early Spring (blooms)
- Longer Growing Conditions
6Temperature Trends 1901 to 1998
Red circles reflect warming Blue circles reflect
cooling All Stations/Trends displayed regardless
of statistical significance. Source National
Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
7Precipitation Trends 1901 to 1998
Green circles reflect increasing precipitation
Brown circles reflect decreasing
precipitation All Stations/Trends displayed
regardless of statistical significance. Source
National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
8Trends of Annual Precipitation Intensity 1910-1994
0
2
3
3
0
2
0
1
3
More than 2 per day
9Observed Climate Trends 20th Century
- Temperature
- Northern portion of Midwest, including Great
Lakes, has warmed by almost 4oF - Southern portion, along Ohio River valley, has
cooled about 1oF - Precipitation
- Annual precipitation has increased as much as
10-20 - Increased rise in number of days with very heavy
precipitation events
10Historic Lake Michigan-Huron Water Levels
Record highs were set in 1973 and 1986
Over the last year (to March 2000) Lake levels
have experienced the second largest decline in
about 100 years
The lake levels for the past 30 years have been
in an extremely high water level regime the
highest in recorded history, due to increased
summer and fall precipitation. The lake levels
are currently near their longer term (1900-1969)
mean.
11What the Future May Hold
12Expected Climate Change
- Temperature
- accelerated warming trend in 21st century
- temperatures increasing by 5 to 10oF (3 to 6oC)
- Average minimum temperature is likely to increase
as much as 1 to 2oF (0.5 to 1oC) more than the
maximum temperature - The Canadian Model is warmer and drier than the
Hadley Model - Precipitation
- likely to continue its upward trend, at a
slightly accelerated rate - 10 to 30 increases are projected across much of
the region
13Changes in Water Level Lake Superior
14Great Lakes Water Resources
- Total range of 11 models projections for changes
in lake levels - less than a 1 foot increase to more than a 5 foot
decrease - Implications
- 5 foot reduction would lead to a 20-40 reduction
in outflow to St. Lawrence Seaway - Reductions in hydropower generation downstream of
up to 15 by 2050 - Increased costs of navigation of 5 to 40
- Reduced shoreline damage due to high lake levels
ranging from 40-80
15Effects of Climate Change on Heavy Lake-Effect
Snowstorms near Lake Erie and other Great Lakes
Potential Benefits Such changes in snowstorm
frequency would decrease the cost of snow removal
and decrease the frequency of transportation
disruptions.
Potential Disadvantages Winter recreational
industry in southern portions of the Great Lakes
would have adverse consequences. For example,
business at Midwestern ski resorts was down 50
and losses were estimated at 120 million, during
the 1997-1998 El Niño year.
16Great Lakes Water Resources Ice Cover
- Likely to decrease
- Days with ice cover will decline
- Thickness of ice will decline
17(No Transcript)
18 19Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health Impacts Weather-related Mortality Infectiou
s Diseases Air Quality-Respiratory Illnesses
Agriculture Impacts Crop yields Irrigation demands
Climate Changes
Forest Impacts Change in forest composition Shift
geographic range of forests Forest Health and
Productivity
Temperature
Precipitation
Water Resource Impacts Changes in water
supply Water quality Increased competition for
water
Sea Level Rise
Impacts on Coastal Areas Erosion of
beaches Inundate coastal lands Costs to defend
coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas Shift in ecological
zones Loss of habitat and species
20Human Health
- Water quality (e.g., drinking water)
- Water-borne diseases
- Impacts from extreme events
- Heat stress
- Air quality
21Waterborne Diseases
- Rainfall and runoff are related to site-specific
waterborne disease outbreaks - 51 of waterborne disease outbreaks were preceded
by extreme precipitation events - Outbreaks due to surface water contamination
showed the strongest association - Association between rainfall and disease is
important for water managers, public health
officials, and risks assessors - Source Curriero et al. (2001)
22Rivers in the Great Lakes Region Will Also be
Affected
- Stream river flow into the lakes will likely
change. - Inland rivers that are primarily snowmelt
driven may have earlier peaks - as a result of less snow and more rain.
- Changes in summer flows will depend on how
increased precipitation is - balanced by evapotranspiration within
watersheds.
23Water Ecology
- Warmer water likely to create environment more
susceptible to invasions by non-native species - Runoff of excess nutrients into lakes and rivers
is likely - coupled with warmer temperatures, likely to
stimulate growth of algae - will deplete the water of oxygen to the detriment
of other living things - Declining lake levels are likely to cause large
impacts to distribution of wetlands
24Quality of Life
- Likely shift in recreational activities
- Cold-season recreation will be reduced
- skiing
- Snowmobiling
- ice skating
- ice fishing
- Warm-season recreation will increase
- swimming
- hiking
- golf
- Warm-season recreation likely to be affected by
excessive heat
25Impacts in Climate Change on Fruit Production in
the Great Lakes Region 2025-2034
Lake-modified regions surrounding Lake Michigan
will experience
- moderate increase in growing season length
- decrease in the frequency of subfreezing
temperatures - important growth stages for perennials (e.g.,
commercial fruit trees) will occur earlier
26Agriculture Extreme Weather Events
- Droughts and floods can result in large yield
reductions - Example Weather conditions during growing
season are primary factor in corn and soybean
yields - Severe droughts cause yield reductions of over
30 - Example Drought of 1988
27Loss of Habitat for Brown Trout from a Doubling
of CO2 - 2050
Not included in analysis
1-49 Loss
50-100 Loss
Dual screening criteria used for inclusion 1)
Thermal modeling predicts suitability and 2)
Fish presence in 10 or more of States water
bodies.
GFDL Climate Change Scenario
Source EPA, 1995
28EPA Assessments Already Informing Stakeholder
Decisions About Adaptation
The Great Lakes Regional Assessment team has
hosted workshops to evaluate how assessment
findings can inform decision processes.
- Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001)
- - Loss of a foot of carrying capacity on a 1000
foot vessel leaves 3240 tons behind _at_ 50 trips
per year results in revenue loss for 162,000 tons - Fisheries Aquatic Ecosystems (June 2001)
- Forests and Terrestrial Ecosystems (TBA)
- Winter Recreation (TBA)
- Agricultural Productivity (TBA)
29www.epa.gov/globalresearch
30Contact Information
- Dr. Joel D. Scheraga
- National Program Director
- Phone (202) 564-3385
- Email Scheraga.Joel_at_epa.gov
- Mr. John Furlow
- Phone (202) 564-3388
- Email Furlow.John_at_epa.gov