Climate Action Planning in the States

1
Climate Action Planning in the States
Maryland Commission on Climate Change First
Meeting June 18, 2007 Baltimore, MD
Kenneth A. Colburn Center for Climate
Strategies kcolburn_at_symbioticstrategies.com 617-78
4-6975
Thomas D. Peterson Center for Climate
Strategies tdp1_at_mac.com 703-691-2199
2
Why Are States Leading on Climate?

• States have always led
• Origin of innovative approaches (Laboratories)
• Where consensus is built and conflicts resolved
• Where implementation really happens
• Prior lead-by-example success (Acid Rain, toxics,
  Hg, cars, etc.)
• Playing Offense
• Can shape climate policy favorably
• Get head start on technological opportunities and
  markets
• Get savings, productivity, security, and health
  co-benefits
• See political opportunity
• Gretsky Skate to where the puck is going to
  be.
• Playing Defense
• Want to avoid severe climate impacts
• Contribute significant GHG emissions
• Know climate policy is coming
• Gough If youre not at the table, youre on
  the menu.

3
States Can Shape Policy

• More pioneers than laboratories where real
  policy gets hammered out

4
Economic Opportunity in the Offing

• International carbon market 2005 12 B 2006
  29 B 2007(est) 31 B Point Carbon
• US clean-tech investment 1.5 billion 2005
  2.9 billion 2006 projected to hit 8.7 billion
  by 2009 Margaret Beckett
• 21 trillion energy sector investment from now
  thru 2030 International Energy Agency
• Energy largest economic opportunity this
  century John Doerr (VC/BOD Google, Amazon)
• A tectonic force that will change the economic
  landscape firms that recognize early, and
  respond imaginatively and constructively will
  create opportunities for themselves and thereby
  prosper Lehman Brothers (Business of Climate
  Change)

5
Political Benefits Increasingly Clear

OMalley MD Join RGGI
Schwarzenegger CA State Cap
Richardson NM New Targets
Patrick MA Join RGGI
1. Rachel Carson 20. John James Audubon 27.
John Muir 29. Arnold Schwarzenegger 48. Jane
Goodall 49. Henry David Thoreau 81. Mahatma
Gandhi 89. Dalai Lama
Napolitano AZ New Targets
Spitzer NY 100 RGGI Auction 200 million
Ritter CO GHG Market
6
(No Transcript)
7
Comprehensive Climate Plans
9 States
8
Plans - Recent Underway
20 States
9
www.azclimatechange.us
285,000 jobs
10
Arizona Climate Plan Results

• 49 Recommendations 45 Unanimous
• NPV 5.5 Billion Savings

11
New Mexico Climate Plan Results

• 69 Recommendations 67 Unanimous
• NPV 2.1 Billion Savings

12
California Its Already Working

AB-32 (Statewide GHG cap) will add 4 Billion and
83,000 jobs. (UC-Berkeley)
12
13
GHG Reduction Strategies
14
Partial Efforts Possible Plans
29 States
15
Some Initial Contact
37 States
16
Comparison to National Bills
17
Leadership States Wedges
Conclusion Closing the gap is quite doable
18
National Gross-Up of States Actions
NPV 2007-2020 -117 Billion
19
Strength in Numbers

• Regional multi-state efforts
• Potential game changers
• No longer just the usual suspects
• NEG/ECP, RGGI, WCI, The Climate Registry,
  international efforts
• Keys
• Carbon fungibility (a ton is a ton)
• Uniformity reciprocity
• Transparency
• International component (e.g., BC, Sonora in WCI)
  could lead, expedite development of a global
  climate market, solution

20
The Global Picture

• Could be a 1 trillion, state-driven carbon
  market.
• Key to China India What offsets to allow?

21
CCS Climate Action Planning Process

• Tailor the process to the specific state
• Convene stakeholder group
• Develop GHG Inventory Forecast
• Review Catalog of State Actions (300)
• Identify priority policy options
• Develop straw proposals for analysis
• Quantify costs/savings GHG reductions
• Review and revise as necessary
• Vote aggregate results final report of
  recommendations back to Governor

22
CCS Process Coverage

• All sectors, all implementation approaches

23
Policy Matters!
Source David Goldstein
24
It Can Be Done
25
Thank Youfor Your Timeand Attention!