New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability Final Conference "External costs of energy t

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New Energy Externalities Development for
Sustainability Final Conference "External costs
of energy technologies"
The NEEDS TIMES PanEU modelling platform and
main results of scenario analysis
Markus Blesl, IER, Germany RS Modelling Pan
European Policy scenarios Brussels, February 17,
2009
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Scenario analysis

• Baseline case (REF)
• Continuation of the support of renewable on a
  minimum level, nuclear phase out and limited use
  of nuclear in the countries they have used
  nuclear in the past.

• Post-Kyoto climate policy (450 ppm)
• An overall EU reduction target of -71 emissions
  by 2050 compared to 1990, is imposed
• A scenario variant (450ppm_oil100) is analysed
  with oil prices going above USA 100/bb

• Security of energy supply (OLGA and OLGA_NUC)
• Imports of fossil fuels are constrained to foster
  the use of renewables, efficiency standards and
  new nuclear (-30 Oil, -40 Gas below baseline
  imports in 2010)
• A scenario variance is analyzed (OLGA_NUC) where
  nuclear reactors are free options to mitigate
  climate change

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Carbon Emissions in Mt CO2/yr
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Attributes of CO2 emissions reductions in the
EU27 in Mt CO2/yr Scenario 450 ppm in the year
2020
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Cost Optimal Burden Sharing of the 20 GHG EC
Target for 2020
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Emission Reduction ETS vs. NonETS in 450ppm
Scenario in 2020
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Attribution of CO2 emission reduction in the EU27
(450 ppm wi/wo security of supply)
with oil and gas restriciton
without oil and gas restriction
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Attributes of CO2 emissions reductions in the
EU27 in Mt CO2/yr Scenario 450 ppm in the year
2050
CHP (15.2)
CCS
CON
CCS
4
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Renewables
Fossil Switch
Efficiency increase
0
6
Enduse
Efficiency
8
2
Fossil Switch
19
End use
CCS
52
13
Renewable
17
Electricity and Heat
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Renewable
Power plants (33.2)
9
Nuclear
6
Efficiency
Fossil Switch
0
2
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Attribution of CO2 emission reduction in the EU27
(450 ppm wi/wo security of supply)
with oil and gas restriction and without nuclear
phase out
with oil and gas restriction and with nuclear
phase out
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Scenario Comparison, EU27 Net Electricity
Production
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Scenario Comparison 450 PMM wi/wo security of
supply EU27 By Electrical Capacity and
Technology in GW
with oil and gas restriciton
without oil and gas restriction
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Scenario Comparison 450 PMM with security of
supply EU27 By Electrical Capacity and
Technology in GW
with oil and gas restriction and without nuclear
phase out
with oil and gas restriction and with nuclear
phase out
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CO2 Prices and CO2 Costs
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Conclusions

• The role of technologies and structural changes
  in the energy system of the EU27 are more
  influenced by policies than of the technologies
  them self.
• A strong reduction of the import-dependence on
  oil and gas is only possible if the technology
  development will be successful in all parts of
  the energy system.
• In case of CO2 emission reduction with a
  limitation on the further use of nuclear,
  renewable, CCS , fossil fuel switch and a
  increase of electricity in the final energy
  consumption plays a big rule.
• Efficiency improvement will be compensated by a
  higher share of renewable and the use of CSS till
  2030. Only in case of security of supply
  efficiency improvement takes up an additional
  part.
• In the long term energy demand and end use
  technologies determinate more and more the
  possibility of structural changes and CO2 prices.