SOLAR ACTIVITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOREST FIRES

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SOLAR ACTIVITY - CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOREST
FIRES

• Milan Radovanovic
• Geographical institute Jovan Cvijic Serbian
  Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade

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• Climate change or global warming?
• Link between climate and forests (vegetation)
• Human impact on climate
• Human impact on vegetation

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• Data for forest fires
• Not uniform on global scale
• Our knowledge is limited for behavior and trends
  especially for mountain regions
• Satellite data positive and negative sites for
  detection of burned locations
• Officially data of FAO about 40 of forest
  fires are with unknown causes in Europe
• Similar data for Balkan peninsula

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Figure 1. Large number of fires was spreading
from Italy over the Balkans, Hungary, Romania,
Ukraine, Slovakia and Poland on March 26th 2003
(http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/n
atural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id8620)
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Figure 2. Fires and smoke across the Balkan
Peninsula Satellite Aqua - Pixel size 1km -
Alternate pixel size 500m 250m 2007/206 -
07/25 at 1115 UTC
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• ???. 1. ???? ??????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?????? ??
  ???????? (1 - 3) ? ?????????? (4 - 6) ???????????
  ?? ?????? 1991 - 2001 ?. (????? FAO, 2002)
• 1 2 3 4 5 6
• ?????? 1999 2000 2001 1999 2000 2001
• ????????? 15 35 ... - - ...
• ?????????? 2 876 1 705 ... 1 083 864 ...
• ??????? 8 - 3 8 1 1
• ???????? 93 403 206 227 1 307 619
• ???????? 94 187 ... 129 519 ...
• ????? 9 205 210 11 80 89
• ????? 921 959 ... 482 540 ...
• ?????? ... ... 4 ... ... 4
• ???????? 116 105 ... 14 53 ...
• ????????? 1 599 1 341 1 995 3 353 4 401 2
  262
• ??????? 675 681 680 503 529 352
• ????? ... ... 660 ... ... 1 998
• ????????? 96 122 ... 850 815 ...
• ??????? 1 196 915 ... - - ...
• ????????? 966 619 278 56 35 9
• ???????? 32 22 ... 116 75 ...

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Figure 3. Hundreds, probably thousands fires are
burning in the heart of the South American
Continent on September 20th 2005.
http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/na
tural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id13150)
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Figure 4. Africa is the center of our planet with
more burned biomass on the annual level than
anywhere else (http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Li
brary/BiomassBurning/biomass_burning3.html)
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Figure 5. Tens of the localities were fire seized
in the western part of the USA from Texas to
Washington, including Florida in the southeast
and Alaska in the northwest (http//active
firemaps.fs.fed.us/lg_fire2.php)
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Figure 6. When we looked at figure 5, it was
almost impossible to expect that in this case on
July 4th 2006. the area of Canada would be spared
(http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/n
atural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id13690)
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Figure 7. Arrangement of all fires during ten
days activity in period 14-24.10.2002.
(http//www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/iffn_28/Russ
ia-1.pdf)
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Figure 8. Numerous fires were scattered across
Southeast Asia on January 21, 2007, when the
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
(MODIS) on NASAs Aqua satellite passed overhead
and captured this image (http//earthobservatory.n
asa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img
_id14085)
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Figure 9. Satellite recording of the fires at the
utmost southeast of Europe on 23.11.2002.
(http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/A
rchive/Nov2002/SERussia.AMOA2002325_lrg.jpg)
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HELIOCENTRIC HYPOTESIS OF ORIGIN OF FOREST
FIRESAccording the data for 15 cases the
particles velocities were of 550 km/s, while in
some situations even over 1 000 km/s. Presented
temperatures are for proton, ion and nucleon SW
particles. It is measured on 1.5 million km from
the Earth while ACE satellites make the
observations (http//www.sel.noaa.gov/ace/ACErtsw_
data.html). Particle temperatures reached even
over a million C in some situations. Under the
SW velocities of e.g. about 800 km/s, we can
estimate that highly energetic particles, having
also high thermal temperature, arrived to Earth
for about 45 minutes from the moment when the
instruments had registered them.
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???. 2. ???????? ??????? ???????? ?? ?????? ??
?????????? ???????? ?????? ? ?????? ? ?????????
?????????? ????, ??????????? ??????? ? ?? ????
?? ?? ?????????? ??????????
?????? ? ??????? ???????? ?? ???????? ?? Natural
Hazards gtgt Fires gtgt NN- ?????????? ??????????
???? ?? ??????????? ?? 2003 ?????? ?? ?????????
???? ?? ???????? ?? http//www.dxlc.com/solar/inde
x.html ????????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ????????
?? http//www.sel.noaa.gov/ace/ACErtsw_data.html
?????? ?? ??????? ?? ???????? ??
http//umtof.umd.edu/pm/crn/ ??? ??????
?????????? ?????? ??????????? ?? ???????? ??
?????, ???? ?????? ??????? ???? ????, ??????????
????????? ?????????
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Figure 10. A day before the fires in Serbia,
10946 energetic region was recorded in the east
of the Sun (in geo effective position), while at
the same time electromagnetic waves from CH260
coronary hole were emitted toward Earth
(http//www.dxlc.com/solar/)
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Figure 11. Proton velocities were reaching the
values of mostly over 600 km/s from 11th-16th of
March 2007
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Figure 12. Sudden proton energy rise at the
beginning of 21. 11. 2002. (http//www.sel.noaa.go
v/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html)
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• Figure 13. Wind Shear in the 150-300 mb layer
  mean minus 700-925 mb layer mean
  (http//cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europ
  e/winds/wm7shr.html)

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Figure 14. Satellite recording of the air masses
breakthrough over West Europe on 24. 08. 2005
(http//www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html)
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Figure 15. Sudden rises in protons in all
energetic ranges at the beginning of 22nd.08.2005
(http//umtof.umd.edu/pm/crn/CRN_1996.GIF)
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Figure 16. Satellite recording of fires in
Portugal on 24. 08. 2005 (http//earthobservatory.
nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Aug2005/Portugal_f
ires.TMOA2005234_lrg.jpg)
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Figure 17. Schematic survey of the way of SW
penetration towards topographic surface
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• On the basis of presented results we are of
  opinion that the future researches can be aimed
  into three basic directions.
• The first one is connected with the establishing
  of the chronological connection between forest
  fires and processes on the Sun on statistically
  satisfied number of samples.
• The second one relates to experimental laboratory
  researches that could at least approximately
  simulate the conditions for which there is a
  conviction that can be responsible predisposition
  to the phenomenon of the initial phase of fire.
• The third approach is about astrophysical
  phenomena and processes which need a detailed
  parameterization as well as specific study of the
  particle penetration mechanism from cosmos toward
  Earths surface i.e. stand of forests.